CBS 6 Storm Team Blog

Snowfall Forecast Map

2012-02-17T23:22:00.002-05:00

Winter Storm Watch In Effect

2012-02-17T14:58:00.002-05:00

A winter storm watch is in effect for Sunday across the northwest part of Virginia. A significant accumulation is expected in the watch area, with more than a half of a foot likely in many area. Other counties will be added to the watch area after the adjacent National Weather Services have a chance to issue. -ZD

Dense Fog Advisory In Effect

2012-02-16T22:39:00.002-05:00

A dense fog advisory is in effect through the remainder of tonight. Visibilities will be reduced to 1/4 of a mile or less at times. Caution is advised for any overnight travel. Be extra cautious and slow down when encountering foggy conditions. The density of fog in situations like tonight can change rapidly over a very short distance. -ZD

Weather Blog: Snowless Winter Ends This Sunday

2012-02-16T15:26:00.005-05:00

So far this season we've only had a few very minor brushes with wintry weather, with nothing more than a trace of snow and ice. That should all change on Sunday. All of the most reliable weather models are now showing a temperature and moisture scenario that should at least give us a measurable snow greater than a trace, even at the seemingly snow-resistant precip gauge at RIC. How much snow is still in question, and won't be determined with true accuracy until the system has come and gone. The model solutions are many, and the number of opinions across the blogosphere are exponentially greater.

I won't snow you, no pun intended, with confusing model lingo and acronyms, but I'll get into some specifics of what I think will occur in the Richmond area as this storm moves through. So here we go. We should begin to see rain developing during the morning hours on Sunday. A cold front will move through the metro around 6 AM on Sunday, and I expect the temperature to be around 40 degrees at sunrise. Forecast vertical temperature profiles, which we call soundings, show the precip to begin as rain. As the rain falls, we will see temperatures begin to fall as well, but only until the air becomes saturated. The point of saturation is called the wet bulb temperature, and with small differences in the temperature and low-level moisture (called dew point depression), we'll see the surface temperatures fall only into the mid 30s by noon. A northerly wind will continue to bring lower dew point air into the region during the day, so we will continue to see the temperature slowly fall to near freezing just after sunset. Although the surface temps might not reach the freezing mark until after dark, I think we will see a change from rain to snow during the afternoon hours. The snow will be heavy and wet and will only initially accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces, but as the temps approach freezing, we should still have enough moisture around for a quick accumulation before everything comes to an end. Slick spots will be likely by Monday morning, as I expect temps to fall into the upper 20s.

This event is coming at a perfect time, with a light commute to school and work expected on Presidents Day. There will of course be some changes in the track and intensity of the storm, so I'll be back with an update and any necessary tweaking of the forecast tomorrow. Feel free to share this with friends, and you're welcome to drop by my facebook page and leave your thoughts, questions, and comments. Thanks to Claire Powell for the daffodil photo. -ZD

Three-month outlook for Spring

2012-02-16T08:47:00.005-05:00

The three-month temperature and precipitation outlook is out from the Climate Prediction Center, showing a continued warmer-than-average trend for Virginia that has persisted all Winter. It looks likely to continue into our Spring as La Nina gradually weakens in the equatorial Pacific. ENSO Neutral conditions should be reached by this Summer.

Here's the temperature outlook for Spring (March, April, & May):

Here's the precipitation outlook for Spring (March, April, & May):

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Snow or No Snow This Weekend?

2012-02-14T16:08:00.003-05:00

The model giveth and the model taketh away. Whether you want a big storm or 70-degrees and sunshine, when we're peering into the future more than a few days ahead, computer model data is all we have to go on. And while weather modeling has becoming increasingly accurate over the past few decades, we sometimes tend to forget that the solutions they give us aren't real. The pretty graphics they generate are based on many approximations, and regardless of how great a storm might look several days away, any one model is only as good as its initial conditions. If it fails to resolve a feature in the atmosphere when it initializes, it will give an incorrect solution for the future. That's why we often approach the extended forecasts with due caution, knowing good and well that things can and will change, even if every model out there shows the same thing. We've seen some pretty big changes in the model forecasts in the past 24 hours for the potential snow this Sunday, and it now looks less likely we'll see much of a storm. But before you write this one off completely, understand that we could just as easily see a move back in the other direction over the next day or two. The system is just now coming on shore near Seattle and Portland, and the models should have a better handle on what it will do in subsequent runs.

Here are a couple of things I like and don't like about the potential for snow this weekend: I like the fact that this is a pattern that has been depicted by the GFS model for over week now. It looked like something could happen around the 17th-19th of the month, and the system is due on the 20th. I also like that while the models are in agreement with a more southerly track that doesn't effect Virginia much, at least all of the models are showing a storm in the region. You can't have a storm shift it's course north if it's not there to begin with. I don't like that the main vort max becomes nearly cut off across the southwest U.S. on Friday. Cut off lows can be a nightmare for forecasting. I also don't like the lack of a Greenland block. Even the most aggressive model takes the storm on a SW to NE track, which has a much better chance of completely missing us to the south. If we had more of a blocking pattern (indicated by a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)), this would allow a more southern extent to the cold air, and would also cause the storm to track more S to N, or right along the coast. And the last red flag, and a very important one, was the lack of near-freezing surface air during the time of the event. Our in-house model generated a whopping 0.7" of snow yesterday when the Euro model looked its most impressive. Similar to what happened here on Saturday, it can pour snow, but if temps are in the mid to upper 30s, it won't amount to much. But again, it's a model, and it too will change.

So all this leads to me making no changes to my forecast for Sunday. I'm leaving us at 40% for snow, and won't move it until we get a little closer. As I type this, the midday GFS run has completed through the weekend, and is more favorable for snow. But I don't like the midday and overnight model runs. Confused yet? Be ready for snow on Sunday, and a plan for some decent weather as well. Mother Nature will take care of the details. -ZD

Weather Blog: Snowfall Forecast

2012-02-10T15:50:00.003-05:00

I was sitting at the dinner table with my wife last night complaining about how this time of the year is the worst for a sports fan like myself. As passionate as I am about weather, my love of sports is not too far off. The NFL is over, as is college football, the NCAA tournament doesn't begin for another month, spring training for baseball hasn't started, the PGA tour schedule is pretty weak, and I've never been a big fan of the NBA or NHL which are in full swing. I'm certainly blessed with a great family and friends, and a few hobbies, but I still tend to get bored without a good lineup of sports on the weekend to either play or watch, or...some interesting weather to forecast. It's just a minor event, and the term itself might even be a stretch, but at least Mother Nature has thrown me a bone this weekend and given me and other snow lovers something to be excited about. The system arriving this weekend will come in two waves. We'll have a round of rain overnight tonight, with a round of light snow late Saturday night. The state of West Virginia and the mountains of west-central Virginia will see a decent snow, with Snowshoe Ski Resort likely enjoying around 10" of powder for the weekend skiers and riders. Amounts in central and eastern Virginia will be far less, ranging from and inch or two across northern and eastern VA, to a dusting to an inch across Richmond and vicinity. The snow will occur after dark in the metro, likely occurring between 9 PM and 2 AM, adding the perfect romantic touch to lovers out on a late night stroll enjoying an early Valentine evening together. Wow, did I really just type that? Anyway, whatever falls will be blowing around mightily on the backs of northwest winds of 15-25 mph. A little light snow collected next to the dog house or on a parked car could be all the evidence left of the system by Sunday morning. I'll have a fire going, the TV off, and a fiercely competitive game of scrabble going wife my wife Saturday evening as I wait for the first flakes to fall. The graphic above is my snowfall forecast through Sunday morning. I'll have updates on my facebook page, so drop by and send me a note and hit the "like" button while your there. Feel free to share this with others, and have a great weekend. -Zach

Weekend Weather Preview

2012-02-10T04:18:00.006-05:00

A strong storm system will move through the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and we'll start to see the signs of it today as cloud-cover increases over us from the west. Here's the early Friday morning infrared satellite picture of the U.S.:

I'll point out two features to you. The first of note is the cold front also associated with the clouds you see moving through the Upper Midwest. That front will move through Virginia Saturday. The second feature is the low pressure system tracking from Texas and pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mississippi Valley region and the Southeast. As these two features converge in the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, we'll have rounds of cold rain in central Virginia, with snow in the mountains of western Virginia in the colder air. However, as that cold front sweeps through along with the digging upper trough (see the 500mb vorticity picture Saturday evening below) and brings in deeper, colder air, we'll have more snow mixing in with the rain Saturday afternoon and after dark.

It currently does not look like there will be any chance for an accumulating snow in the metro, as surface temps should remain well above freezing during the time of the precipitation (in the 40s). A winter weather advisory will likely be issued for areas to our northwest on Saturday (especially along I-81). After the surface cold front passes Saturday afternoon and evening, you can expect windy and much colder weather, with wind chills plummeting into the 20s and teens. If you have Saturday evening plans, be prepared for a blustery, cold night out! There may be a quick burst of snow in central Virginia on the back side of this storm system as that good upper-level energy passes overhead, including in the Richmond Metro, between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Saturday. This may lead to a dusting of snow on vehicles and roofs, but no significant accumulation is expected. Here's one forecast map (NAM) of snowfall potential from that final gasp of snow Saturday night:

Sunday will be mostly sunny, very cold with high temperatures struggling to get out of the upper 30s, and also a bit windy behind Saturday's system. The air mass will moderate some on Monday before the next storm system arrives Tuesday morning. The temperature profile for this second storm system will be similar to Saturday's, with the best chance of wintry weather lying just a little north of Richmond.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose
Carrie's Facebook Page
Carrie's Twitter

Some parts of Virginia will see snow Wednesday

2012-02-08T05:24:00.003-05:00

A storm system will move east into the Mid-Atlantic today, bringing snow to west-central and far north-central Virginia. Accumulations from this afternoon into early evening should be light in the 1"-3" range, but this will make travel hazardous during the Wednesday evening commute as moderate snow falls and accumulates on roads.

Locations just southeast of the Advisory may also see some snow mixing in with rain showers today, but no significant accumulations will occur as temperatures remain above freezing there. The best snow accumulations will be along ridge-tops and at higher elevations.

Overnight as the storm system moves offshore into the Atlantic and colder air wraps around the backside into Virginia, there may be a few lingering flurries in central Virginia that will not lead to any accumulation.

If you're on Facebook, be sure to "Like" my page here and receive weather updates. You can also follow me on Twitter @SouthernRedRose.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

New snow plow tracker released by the City of Richmond

2012-02-07T06:06:00.005-05:00

A new snow plow tracking webpage is now available for public use whenever the City of Richmond snow plows are on the move. Now you can track their progress toward your neighborhood, seeing where plows have already been and where they are heading next. The map will display the City's emergency routes and also the "Priority 1 and Priority 2 routes." Those routes are the major roads, like Broad Street, the Midlothian Turnpike and Belvidere Street. Also on the map: fire stations, police precincts and hospitals, as well as City schools and fire hydrants.

City of Richmond Mayor Dwight Jones released this statement Monday, February 6, 2012 upon the public release of the snow plow map: “Even though we’ve had a very mild winter thus far, we want to be thoroughly ready for any possible inclement weather. Ensuring that our snow removal equipment is up to par and that information is readily available and easily accessible will do much to improve our overall performance in the event of a weather occurrence.”

No additional costs were required to produce this "Snow Plow Tracker" because the City of Richmond says it was developed in-house, using GIS software the City already owns.

You can check out the map on your computer or smartphone at this link: https://richssl.ci.richmond.va.us/applications/GIS/snowmap/

The mayor is correct about this being a mild Winter so far! Here's the latest Richmond snowfall update:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Richmond January 2012 weather summary

2012-02-01T08:13:00.007-05:00

As many snow-lovers have noticed (and loathed), January 2012 passed quietly by with only a Trace of snowfall. Although our temperatures generally remained milder most days in January, the average temperature still didn't break into the Top 10 warmest on record for January in Richmond. You can check out that list by clicking here. 2006 holds the number 10 spot with an average monthly temperature of 45.0 degrees, and 1950 in January was the record warmest with an average temperature of a whopping 49.7 degrees! That puts our mild January to shame, really. Here are the complete temperature and precipitation stats for Richmond International Airport this January:

So far this Winter in the Mid-Atlantic, La Nina appears to be impacting our temperature and precipitation trend. Here's what La Nina can do to the U.S. during the Winter Months:

Looks like we are indeed warmer and drier! The jet stream to our north has primarily prevented deep, cold air from plunging into our region and lingering for weeks. The Pacific Northwest also testifies to a cold, wet Winter thus far, with some of the worst winter storms there so far in recent memory. Click here for the summary on their latest winter storm.

Our Winter-to-date snowfall deficit now stands at 6.2" below average. February is typically our snowiest month with about 4.9" of snow on average.

Let me know: do you love a mild Winter, or are you hoping for snow? Join the conversation on Facebook!

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Strong Aftershock Rocks Central Virginia

2012-01-30T19:26:00.002-05:00

A magnitude 3.2 aftershock occurred at 6:39 PM this evening 5 miles south of Louisa and was felt across much of central Virginia. This aftershock was one of the strongest since the original quake back in August. I've been getting a lot of questions on my facebook page about these aftershocks, and specifically when we can call them a new earthquake. Technically, all of these aftershocks are earthquakes, but we call them aftershocks because they are smaller earthquakes associated with the larger seismic event (the 5.8 magnitude quake). If an aftershock is stronger than the original earthquake, it will be deemed the main quake, and all subsequent seismic activity will be referred to as foreshocks. Here's hoping tonight's was the last of them, but I doubt it. -Zach

Be Careful What You Wish For

2012-01-30T17:07:00.003-05:00

I'm a big fan of severe and unusual weather, and find myself always looking forward to the next big storm. I'll never wish for anything that would cause loss of life or widespread property damage, but a good thunderstorm or winter weather event challenges and fascinates the scientist in me. I just returned to Virginia two nights ago from spending a week visiting my in-laws, and on the flight out of Richmond last Saturday, I got what I wished for. Flying with three children ages four and under is no picnic even with no delays, and my wife and I now have a new level of airline stress by which to measure future flights. We were able to get everyone on the plane and in their seats with relative ease, and aside from the constant raising and lowering of tray tables and pushing the flight attendant call button, the kids were behaving pretty well. After waiting on the tarmac for about 15 minutes, the pilot made an announcement that the freezing rain we had been having in Richmond required deicing the aircraft, and we'd have to wait about 30 more minutes for the process to be completed. We finally taxied and took off after the delay on the ground and made our way to Oklahoma City, with a stop in Atlanta. The flight from Richmond to Atlanta is a short one, usually about an hour in the air, but after an hour had passed we were still cruising along at altitude. The pilot then made another announcement confirming my suspicion that something wasn't right, informing us that the Atlanta airport had just shut down due to severe thunderstorms, and we'd be circling until further notice. We circled for about an hour before landing, and were treated to turbulence that rivals even the best Busch Gardens has to offer. Once on the ground, the fun continued with another two hours of delays as severe storms which prompted tornado warnings continued to hammer the airport. (Keep in mind, this is January.) My son was overly tired from missing his nap and somehow ended up running shirtless down the middle of concourse C in the worlds busiest airport. We finally boarded our connecting flight to Oklahoma City and arrived a mere three and a half hours later than scheduled, being treated to a fine dose of winter and spring weather. The second flight was thankfully pretty smooth, and aside from taking a bath in a large cup of iced apple juice that my daughter dumped in my lap, I couldn't complain. So the next time I wish for a little crazy weather, I'll remember this day, and will be very careful of exactly what I'm wishing for. It's good to be back home in Virginia. Have a great week! -Zach

Rain and thunderstorms are likely early Friday

2012-01-26T09:16:00.008-05:00

A broad low pressure storm system that has a history of producing severe weather and heavy rainfall from Texas into the Southeast U.S. will reach Virginia in the pre-dawn hours of Friday. Here's a view of the upper level vorticity reaching the Appalachian spine by Friday sunrise:

Thursday, southerly flow into the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the system tracking into the Ohio River Valley is transporting richer low-level moisture. This means that there will be greater instability present overnight into Friday morning once the upper-level lift arrives in addition to the approaching surface cold front. In purple, you'll see some relatively "weak" CAPE (an indicator of instability for thunderstorm development) reaching into central Virginia:

Therefore, a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms will exist for the areas in yellow on this map, including extreme south-central Virginia:

Even if most of the Commonwealth technically does not have storms that reach severe limits, the rain and storms moving through pre-dawn Friday morning from west to east will likely contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. As of right now, the timing of that line's arrival in western Virginia is around 2-3 a.m. Friday, and affecting the I-95 region by 5-7 a.m. Rain should end in Richmond after 9 a.m., with rapidly clearing skies behind the surface cold front's passage late Friday morning. All of the Commonwealth will be dry by mid-afternoon Friday behind the cold front.

I'll be in early Friday morning monitoring the line of rain and storms as they track into central Virginia. If you're on Facebook, be sure to "Like" my page for updates there. You can also follow me on Twitter @SouthernRedRose.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fog developing in parts of Virginia this Tuesday morning

2012-01-24T07:40:00.003-05:00

Behind a cold front that is moving through central Virginia early this Tuesday morning, skies are clearing with light winds. Considering the recent dreary, damp days, there's plenty of moisture at the ground to support the development of fog where skies are clearing. As a result, visibilities are dropping to a quarter-of-a-mile in some parts of central Virginia. There is a Fog Advisory until 9 AM for the areas highlighted in grey on this map:

But other locations outside of the Advisory are also getting some light fog, including Jarratt. Here's a picture submitted this morning on Facebook by one of our CBS 6 viewers Debbie Lynn Allen of the fog in Jarratt, VA:

If you have fog pictures to share with us this morning, you can post them at my Facebook page by clicking here for the Wall. You can also tweet your pictures to me @SouthernRedRose.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Update on Freezing Rain Potential

2012-01-19T22:17:00.002-05:00

Evening data continues to suggest the threat for some freezing rain late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. The push of low-level cold air could be far enough south to include all of the metro area in a risk to see some light icing. The primary time period to see freezing will be between 9 PM and 3 AM, with freezing drizzle possible for a few hours longer, especially north of Richmond. I've updated the risk graphic to indicate where I think we'll see the best chance of ice. -Zach

Freezing Rain Possible Saturday Morning

2012-01-17T22:21:00.002-05:00

It appears as though the least welcomed type of winter weather could make an appearance in the state this weekend. A fairly strong (1028 mb) area of high pressure will build into New England Friday into Saturday, with the wind flow around this high moving in a clockwise direction. This air mass will be cold and dry, with the coldest air hugging close to the surface because of its relatively high density. The air will move freely southeast, south, and southwest, but will not be able to move west over the Appalachians. Instead of flowing up and over the mountains, the cold air will funnel down the east side of the mountain chain. This process is called "cold air damming", or "the wedge effect", and allows the shallow cold air associated with strong high pressure to spill as far south as Georgia along the east side of the Appalachians. Because the sub-freezing air will be so shallow, rain will fall in liquid form, but will freeze on contact to all objects at the surface. While the rain should be light during the time of sub-freezing surface temperatures, even a minor accretion of ice will cause problems. The graphic I created indicates where I think icing will be possible, and highlights where I think the greatest risk will exist. I'll continue to monitor the latest model data, and will have another update here tomorrow. -Zach

Second coldest morning of Winter

2012-01-16T08:11:00.004-05:00

The coldest morning so far this Winter season is still January 4th, when Richmond International Airport reported a low temperature of 17 degrees. But this morning was almost as cold as that, with lows area-wide in the upper teens and low 20s:

Richmond's low of 19 degrees is our second coldest this Winter, and only our second morning this season of falling into the teens.

Here are Richmond's other cold Winter mornings thus far this season:
Jan 15, 2012: 23 degrees
Jan 2, 2012: 23 degrees
Dec 29, 2011: 25 degrees

--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Gaining Daylight

2012-01-15T18:51:00.001-05:00

Update on Snow Chances for the Weekend

2012-01-11T16:41:00.002-05:00

So this is what we've been reduced to. The winter of 2011-2012 has been so miserably unfulfilling to snow lovers, that the mere mention of the possibility of seeing a few flakes gets us all giddy. Yes, I said "us". I'm a big fan of Virginia's varied weather with four solid seasons, and a trace of snow just doesn't cut it for me. Perhaps I'm spoiled from the past two winters, but whether you like the cold weather or not, it's just not winter without one good snow. I saw this type of winter coming with a La Nina in full swing ala 2006, but banked on one decent storm this season when I made my winter weather forecast. And I'm still banking on one, it just won't be this weekend. The type of system that will affect the area this weekend is a clipper. It moves quickly, is moisture starved, and rarely produces much of an accumulation around here. Computer models tend to under forecast precipitation in this type of scenario, so I'm putting more weight in the pattern than in what the model actually shows for precip. Even so, much of what develops and falls will evaporate in the very dry air that will be in place. I'm still looking forward to seeing even the lightest of what Mother Nature throws our way. I'll have another update tomorrow. -Zach

Slick spots devloping in western Virginia this morning

2012-01-11T09:11:00.001-05:00

As rain expands northeast into the higher terrain of western Virginia this morning, some slick spots are developing while temperatures are below freezing. This Winter Weather Advisory lasts until 10 AM for the purple highlighted areas on the map:

Once temperatures rise above freezing late morning, the hazardous traveling conditions will dwindle. However, heavy rain will overspread all of the Commonwealth mid-day through this evening, making driving hazardous as heavy rain reduces visibilities and creates a hydroplaning risk.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Tracking the Potential for Snow this Weekend

2012-01-10T16:36:00.002-05:00

The pattern for the upcoming weekend continues to look interesting, and several models are now agreeing on bringing some light snow into the area Sunday morning. The nor'easter the GFS was trying to blow up over the area on Monday is gone in the medium range solution, but both the GFS and ECMWF (Euro) are showing a shortwave clipper swinging through the region after very cold air has settled into the state. The GFS has actual precipitation (snow) depicted, while the Euro is dry with generally the same upper-level pattern. Based on the PVA that should be present ahead of the clipper that the Euro is showing, snow would likely be generated in the same manner as the GFS solution. The NAM only goes to 84 hours from the current time, so we can't see what it says for Sunday, but what it does show is in agreement with a short wave affecting the region by Sunday. The amount of snow should be on the light side, but the surface temps will be plenty cold enough for whatever falls to stick. This scenario is still about 4.5 days out, so things will change, but it's the only decent chance I see for us in the next week. I'll have another update tomorrow. -Zach

Dense Fog Tuesday Morning

2012-01-10T04:35:00.006-05:00

After Monday's rain, winter mix, and snow (in northern and western Virginia), low-level moisture at the ground remains high causing fog to develop in most of the Commonwealth. The fog is particularly dense in the western third of the state, where some locations there are under a Dense Fog Advisory until mid-morning for significantly reduced visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less.

Visibilities are reduced elsewhere in central Virginia outside of the Advisory, though, so please use caution on your commute this morning. The fog can be at its densest in low-lying spots, along waterways, and in agricultural areas. Use your fog lights or low-beam settings while driving this morning, even after sunrise.

I mentioned the snow from yesterday in parts of Virginia. Here's a beautiful shot of the snow falling Monday in King George, VA by Breanna Marini:

This photo was posted on my Facebook page by Breanna. You can share your snow pictures, at my page by clicking here, too.

--Meteorologist Carrie Rose
Carrie's Facebook Page
Carrie's Twitter

Help Provide Warmth For a Deserving Family

2012-01-06T17:29:00.002-05:00

We've only had small doses of frigid temperatures this winter, and only a trace of snow to date, but there have been plenty of cold nights and it's likely wintry weather will make an appearance over the next two months. Most of us are blessed with the means to heat our homes during the winter, but there are families that could really use some help this winter. Woodfin, CBS 6, and the Better Housing Coalition are teaming up to provide a new furnace to a deserving family in need. Go to www.wtvr.com/warmerwinter and fill out the form to nominate a deserving family. Thanks in advance! -Zach

A Question About Wind Chill

2012-01-05T17:03:00.002-05:00

I received the following e-mail from a CBS 6 viewer a couple of days ago addressing wind chill, and who or what is affected by it. Read the message first, and then continue reading for my explanation below.

Zach,

While over at a friends farm Monday it was cold and windy. We got in his golf cart to go look at something and the gas engine stumbled and stammered at first and my friend blamed it on the wind and cold. I tried to explain the wind didn’t make the engine any colder but he wouldn’t hear of such a foolish thing. It might be worthwhile if you or Carrie try to explain the difference between wind chill and ambient temp while this dip has everyone's attention!

Thanks,

Mike

A lot of people will tell you that wind chill does not affect inanimate objects, while others will tell you wind chill affects everything, both living and otherwise. The answer is actually not that cut and dry. The simplest way to put it, is to say that wind chill affects all objects that are emitting heat, causing them to cool to the ambient air temperature faster. So in the example above, the cold could be a reason for the engine to struggle, but not the wind. In the same way, if a lake is 33 degrees and the wind is calm, the lake will not freeze if the wind increases to 20 mph and the wind chill drops into the teens. The wind chill will be sensed by humans and other objects warmer than the surrounding air temperature, but the temperature of the water will not cool lower than the air temp and freeze. Wind chill accelerates the cooling process of objects, and if those objects are already at the ambient air temperature, they won't get any colder regardless of how low the wind chill drops. -Zach

A Few Snow Flurries Possible Tonight

2012-01-04T15:42:00.003-05:00

The best location will be across the northern half of Virginia as a shortwave trough (indicated by the red and orange colors in the graphic above) moves through the region. Models have not handled the precipitation with this feature very well and there is currently a lot more on radar (shown below) than expected. The air mass is still extremely dry, and the mountains will hurt a little as well, but a few flurries will still be possible north of Richmond. Nothing to write home about, but it's the only shot we have to see a flake or two before temps in the 60s return to the area. -Zach

Coldest morning of this Winter Wednesday morning

2012-01-04T08:16:00.003-05:00

Wednesday morning's low temperatures were the coldest of this Winter season thus far, and will likely remain the coldest for the near-future. Here are a selection of low temperatures reported this morning in central Virginia:

As bitterly cold as it was this morning, it still wasn't close to record cold low temperatures for today's date. The record low for Richmond International Airport for January 4th is -1 degree from 1918. The average low temperature is 28 degrees, which means we were about ten degrees colder-than-average across all of central Virginia.

The upper-level trough that has been in our region for the past couple of days providing this cold weather, dry air, and blustery winds will begin moving away from us today. By tomorrow, morning lows will remain in the mid to upper 20s with afternoon highs back to average in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Our next blast of cold air may arrive mid-month, but as of right now, there's still no strong signal for our first significant winter precipitation event in the next couple of weeks. The system that will bring rain to Virginia this Sunday should exit to our northeast before it pulls in cold air deep enough to change the rain over to snow.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Carrie
"Like" Carrie on Facebook
Follow Carrie on Twitter @SouthernRedRose

Coldest Night So Far This Season

2012-01-03T16:46:00.002-05:00

And yes, the winter season is still young, but overnight lows in the teens across the majority of the state will easily eclipse our previous coldest night of 25 degrees in Richmond on December 29th. The wind speed will decrease significantly as the night wears on, but even a 3 mph wind at a temperature of 19 degrees will result in a wind chill of 15 degrees. We'll have one more breezy and cold day on Wednesday before a nice warm-up heading into the weekend. A few central Virginians were treated to snow showers this afternoon, but any significant wintry weather might still be quite a stretch away. There are two chances that I see over the next 10 days for wintry weather in and around metro Richmond, and they are both associated with similarly structured storm systems. The big question for each of these systems will be whether or not the air mass will be cold enough to support snow. Most of the rain will be gone by the time the cold air moves in during the first event this Sunday, with still a lot of uncertainty with the second system slated to arrive next Thursday the 12th. Neither system looks impressive at this point. I'll keep one eye on the models tonight, and the other on the Hokies down in New Orleans. Hopefully they can put Michigan away and spread a little warmth north. I'll have another update tomorrow. -Zach

Bitter cold for first meteor shower of 2012

2012-01-03T05:10:00.015-05:00

If you can bear the brutally cold wind chills in the teens early Wednesday morning before sunrise, you could be treated to the first great meteor shower of 2012. This will also be the first good shower to view in months because the bright Moon previously interfered with optimal viewing of other showers in 2011.

The Quadrantid Meteor Shower peaks early Wednesday, January 4th, particularly between 2 a.m. and Dawn. At this peak, as many as 100 meteors per hour could be visible! Our visibility should be pretty good in central Virginia with clearing skies and the moon setting around 3 a.m. Best meteor shower visibilities are always a distance away from high concentrations of man-made light. Those of you outside of the cities should see the most meteors. Here's a sky map of where to look (the point of origin from our perspective on Earth of the meteors...look northeast and up):

(IMAGE CREDIT: Starry Night Software)
Notice that the meteors appear to come at us from the constellation of Quadrans Muralis (in between Draco and Bootes), leading to the shower's name. The meteors associated with the Quadrantids originate from asteroid "2003 EH1," which itself is probably a broken piece off of a comet from several hundred years ago. This meteor shower was first documented in 1825. NASA expects the debris from that asteroid to impact Earth's atmosphere at a speed of about 90,000 mph, and disintegrate 50 miles above the ground.

However, please be aware that Wednesday early morning temperatures will fall into the teens and low 20s, with wind chills in the low teens. If you plan to watch this meteor shower for a couple hours, make sure you are well-equipped for the cold weather, paying particular attention to keeping your hands, feet, neck, face and head warm! Take extra blankets, water, snacks, and maybe some hot chocolate to enjoy while you stargaze. You can click here to read more about the bitter cold lingering through Thursday morning.

Other meteor watching tips:
*Allow at least ten to 15 minutes for your eyes to adjust to the dark.
*Lie flat on the ground and scan the sky, not focusing on any specific point.
*Look for flashes of swiftly moving light from the northeast streaking across the sky. Some of these may appear to have various colors other than just a bright white.

Click here to post your meteor sightings at Carrie's Facebook Wall.

Tracking Our Sub-Freezing Wind Chills

2012-01-02T17:36:00.002-05:00

The coldest and driest air mass of the season continues to move into the region this evening, and with a persistent and brisk northwesterly wind, the wind chill in Richmond and areas to the north and west will remain below freezing for a fairly long duration. I drew the red line above to indicate what I think the wind chill will register over the next few days, and also drew a light blue horizontal line to show the freezing line at 32 degrees. We'll be close to seeing wind chill values crack the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon, but it's likely we'll experience wind chills at or below freezing for about 63 hours, especially in areas north and west of here. The deep trough responsible for this cold snap will shift east of the area on Thursday, giving us a break from the cold heading into the weekend. And yes, I expect us to be in the low 60s on Saturday, so the confusion to vegetation and wardrobe planning will continue. As for any precipitation, the chances are very slim, with just a slight chance for a little light rain on Sunday. The medium range models continue to show flashes of an east coast winter storm in the extended period, but nothing very focused at the moment. I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if something looks promising. In the meantime bundle up, and check back for another update tomorrow. -Zach

Weather Blog: Thoughts Heading into 2012

2011-12-30T17:10:00.003-05:00

I went running before work today through the Museum District and The Fan, and was reminded of how great a variety of weather we get each year in Richmond. It's the next to last day in December, and the high was nearly 60 degrees with lots of sunshine. Four days from now, we'll be lucky to hit 35, and the wind chill will stay below freezing. I came to the River City in 2007, and was told by several of my colleagues in Plains that the experience of being a chief meteorologist would be good, but that I would soon become bored with the weather. They were half right. I witnessed some wild weather in my 8 years of working in Tornado Alley, the stuff that gives you nightmares, and while we don't see the extremes here in The Commonwealth, we see a greater sampling of weather types than most areas in the country. In 2011, we had a couple of minor snows, several tornado outbreaks, a hurricane, an earthquake, and a good mix of hot and cold days. Then you throw in days like today, and I have nothing to complain about. I'm married with three small children now, and the quiet days are as exciting for me now as the big weather events. I feel fortunate to be here.
A few notes on the weather over the next week: the disturbance tonight will bring little more than a few showers to the area, and no wintry weather. The cold blast is still on schedule to arrive Monday and stay in place through late Wednesday. There continues to be a signal for a disturbance to move through the area on Thursday, possibly bringing the area a few flurries or snow showers, but nothing to write home about. The storm track will become more meridional "north/south" over the next two weeks, which should result in more temperature swings and perhaps a storm system in there as well. Nothing points to any key storm at this time, but as time goes on, a storm will eventually show itself. Have a fun and safe holiday weekend, and make a resolution this year to better your life and those around you. I'm going to refrain from blogging over the weekend, but I'll be back at it on Monday. In the meantime, I'll post quick updates on my FACEBOOK and TWITTER pages. Hope to see you there. -Zach

Tracking the Cold & Chances for Snow

2011-12-29T15:51:00.003-05:00

I awoke this morning to the rumbling of an idling oil truck in the alley behind my home, perhaps a sign that the word has spread that colder days are ahead and it's time to fill up. The deep trough that will dig into the eastern U.S early next week will bring an air mass with a real bite into the region. It's likely that much of central and northern Virginia will see highs remaining in the upper 30s, which isn't at all unusual for the first week of January, but an abrupt change from the relatively mild fall and winter we have seen to this point. The overnight lows during this period will fall into the upper teens and low 20s. As I mentioned in my post from yesterday, the chance for snow with this pattern change appears slim to none, with only a slight chance of seeing a quick burst of light snow early Monday. If you're scheduled to be at work that day, you'll be working. We'll have another possibility for snow later in the week that looks pretty interesting. Both the GFS and Euro operational models are indicating the presence of an upper-level wave that will dive south out of the upper Midwest and move just south of Virginia on Thursday. This isn't an ideal setup by any stretch for snow, but it's the type of scenario that can become more favorable with time. You'll note my confidence in seeing anything isn't very high by the 20% chance I have in my 7-day forecast. I'll peruse the model suites again this evening and track the movements of birds and small rodents in the morning. Check back for another update tomorrow, and if you haven't already done so, click here to drop by my facebook page and click the "like" button. Have a great Friday. -Zach

To Snow or Not to Snow...

2011-12-28T15:43:00.007-05:00

That is the question, and it appears as though we'll be left high and dry. The Euro model must have finally awakened from its post-holiday leaded-eggnog stupor, because as quickly as one can say La Nina, the computerized pundit reversed its thinking on next week's nor'easter. Even more disappointing to snow lovers, is the strong agreement of all the medium range models of a deep and cold trough digging into the eastern half of the nation January 2nd-4th. Cold is good, yes, but not cold AND dry, and it appears as though that is what we will likely be dealing with. It was fun while it lasted, but big swings like this are very common, as I touched on in my blog entries from the past couple of days. The image below indicates the Euro model from yesterday morning (12z) and just below that image is the GFS model from the same time. The solutions are completely different, with a nor'easter indicated by the Euro, and a dry and cool setup shown by the GFS.The next two images show the same two models 24 hours later (12z this morning), and while both have shifted considerably, they now are in very good agreement. The big u-shaped area over the eastern U.S. is the deep trough, which this time of year translates to a very cold and dry air mass. The shades of yellow, orange, and red within the trough highlight areas of vorticity, and the vorticity pattern is relatively smooth throughout the trough, with very little concentrated maxima. A strong and isolated vorticity maximum, also called a short wave, upper-level disturbance, or vort max, is often necessary to bring our region snow. A strong vort max can create snow through lift directly attributed to the disturbance, and can also result in surface cyclogenesis that strengthens into a nor'easter. The latter was the solution the Euro was teasing us with over the past couple of days, but now neither scenario appears possible without a concentrated upper disturbance.We could certainly see a return to more of a pattern conducive for snow, but the current consistency of the most reliable suite of models makes any big change very unlikely. 'Tis the season for model flip-flopping and looking ahead for our first snow with great anticipation. I'll continue to track this situation closely and will have updates on any potential for another one headed this way. Check back again tomorrow for another update. -Zach

Our Potential for Snow: Part 2

2011-12-27T17:35:00.005-05:00

The possibilities for what happens next week still range from sunny and mild to a heavy snow, with one medium range model staying bullish on developing a Nor'easter for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I'm big on consistency when it comes to longer term forecasting, but each model seems consistent in its own way. The GFS continues to show nothing, while the Euro is going gangbusters. The Euro is many times the big winner in medium range solutions, but I've seen it be consistently wrong on a system before. So with a good measure of cautiousness, and a heck of a lot of optimism, I'll put forth my expectations for next week based only on what the Euro is showing. After all, what's the fun of blogging about a non-event? Yesterday I mentioned the possibility of a big snow, citing the pattern change the Euro was depicting. There has been a change between yesterday's model run, and the runs from last night and this morning. That change?...colder and snowier to put it succinctly. The 500 mb low is slower and farther south and the surface low develops a little farther offshore. The overall amount (QPF) of moisture has increased, and more of that moisture falls into an air mass supportive of snow. So for you snow lovers, it continues to look better and better for a decent snow in the Jan 3-4 time frame. The next run of the Euro will begin a little after midnight. Check back here for my analysis. -Zach

Tracking Richmond's First Chance of Snow

2011-12-26T17:38:00.003-05:00

It looks fairly certain we'll finish up December 2011 without a trace of snow, something we haven't seen since 2006. The pattern looks like it could finally make a big shift in early January, bringing much colder air, and possibly the first snowflakes of the season to the area. The various models solutions continue to hint at both colder and snowier weather for the area during the period of January 2nd-7th. Model reliability is typically poor that far ahead, and there have been many departures from the cold solution over the past couple of days. What has drawn my eye has been the persistent signal of a deep and very cold trough digging into the eastern U.S. in response to a negative shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The European Model has been pretty consistent over the past few runs will the colder air, while the GFS has flip-flopped a couple of times and can't seem to settle on a particular pattern for early January. Most recently, and perhaps the most alarming, is the loose agreement of a full-blown Nor'easter on January 5th. We'll certainly see some changes in the solutions over the next few days, and what is there today, could very easily be gone tomorrow. From the signals I've seen over the past several days though, winter could finally make an appearance during the first week of 2012. Check back for another update. -Zach

Cold Temps This Weekend

2011-12-10T18:27:00.000-05:00

Last Total Lunar Eclipse Until 2014 On Saturday Morning

2011-12-08T05:40:00.006-05:00

The last Total Lunar Eclipse until 2014 will occur this Saturday morning, favoring viewers all along the Pacific Rim, including the Western U.S. However, those of us on the East Coast will not be able to see this eclipse because our moonset time is before the eclipse begins. The first hints of the "red shadow" will not be visible until 7:45 AM EST.
(Click here to see a map of where the eclipse will be visible in the World).
In Richmond, the moon sets Saturday morning at 7:12 AM, about the time the Sun rises at 7:13 AM. So even if we could see some of that initial shadow being cast by the Earth onto the Moon, it will be nearly impossible to see because of the Dawn.

On the West Coast, though, the Moon will enter "totality" of the eclipse at 6:05 AM PST (which is 9:05 AM EST, well after we can't see the Moon anymore on the East Coast). West Coasters will see a pre-sunrise eclipse of beautiful proportions. Atmospheric scientist Richard Keen of the University of Colorado predicts, "I expect this eclipse to be bright orange, or even copper-colored, with a possible hint of turquoise at the edge." The reason why these colors hue the Moon from our perspective here on Earth is because of our own stratosphere. As the Moon's light is scattered through the Earth's atmosphere back to our eyes, the light waves that "survive" the scattering are reddish.

Watch this NASA video to learn more:

Because we will miss watching the eclipse on the East Coast, you can click here to watch this animation demonstrating what it will look like to our western neighbors.

--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Update on rain and snow Wednesday in Virginia

2011-12-07T05:27:00.006-05:00

A slow-moving storm system will finally clear the eastern U.S. by Thursday morning. This Wednesday morning, though, rain continues to track northeast through the western and northern parts of our state, producing some flooding problems in low-lying areas and along creeks and streams. Storm total rainfall should range one to two inches in this part of Virginia, which is why a Flood Watch will remain in effect until 7PM.

For the southeastern half of Virginia, rain totals will remain an inch or less, with the lowest totals at just a quarter-inch in Hampton Roads.

As the surface cold front sweeps southeast this afternoon and evening, much colder air will surge into the region behind it. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, with deep, cold air reaching western Virginia before the precipitation ends. This will change the rain to snow, allowing for as much as three to six inches of snowfall accumulation in elevations above 1500 feet! Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for that part of Virginia through tonight.

It still looks like the rain will end in central Virginia before the deepest, cold air can settle into the region. There will be a tiny window of opportunity between 10 PM to just after Midnight for the ending rain to briefly change over to snow. Nothing will stick, though, as both air and ground temperatures will still be well above freezing in central Virginia, and remain above freezing into Thursday morning. Here's one forecast demonstrating what snow may fall, but likely not all of this will end up sticking (except in the higher elevations of western VA):

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Rain/Snow Mix Possible Early Thursday

2011-12-05T19:09:00.005-05:00

This definitely won't be one to write home about, but enough cold air could arrive in central and western Virginia early enough Thursday morning to change rain to snow or a rain/snow mix before ending. While it looks like a good bet for snow across northern and western Virginia, our chances of seeing anything in the metro are much lower. Above is one model depiction of accumulated snowfall. I agree with the totals across northern and western Virginia, but surface temperatures will be far too warm (37-42 degrees) across central sections for the snow to stick. For reference, the pinks are a trace to 2", cyan 2-3", yellow 3-4", and on up. At least we have a chance to see a little wet snow if nothing else. The forecast atmospheric temperature profile (sounding) in the metro area Thursday around sunrise is favorable for snow to fall while in the process of melting, if there is still rain falling at that time. There's a good chance most, if not all ,of the rain will move northeast of the area by sunrise Thursday, so most of us will miss seeing whatever happens. I'll have another update on this tomorrow. Have a great Tuesday! ZD

2011 Tropical Season Ends Today

2011-11-30T05:26:00.016-05:00

The third most active tropical season on record ends today, November 30th. This 2011 season featured 19 tropical systems, which ties with three other seasons (1887, 1995, and 2010) for the number three spot. The most active tropical season on record is 2005. Records of tropical activity date back to 1851 for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf basins.

Out of the 19 tropical systems, seven were hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds or stronger. Hurricane Irene was the first hurricane to make a direct U.S. landfall in three years (Hurricane Ike hit southeast Texas in 2008). Irene first made landfall in North Carolina, dashing the Outer Banks and eastern North Carolina before hugging eastern Virginia's coastline and producing widespread wind and flooding damage in the Commonwealth. Irene continued into New England, becoming the most significant tropical cyclone to affect the northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

The best news out of this season was that no major hurricanes made U.S. landfall, which marks our sixth straight year without any landfalling major hurricanes in the country! Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the last one.

Not all of the tropical systems received names. Highlighted in yellow are the names used this season:

There was also one system called Tropical Depression Ten, which never made it to Tropical Storm strength (which is when it would have received a name). That is how we get up to 19 tropical cyclones this year, even though only 18 names were used from the list. Tropical Storm Sean was our last named system to occur in early November.

This above-average tropical season may result in part because of better satellite technology available than in earlier years to better investigate systems in the open waters too far away from hurricane hunter aircraft or other reliable sampling techniques. This allowed tropical meteorologists to better asses systems and categorize them.

An average tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has approximately 11 tropical systems, 6 of which become hurricanes, 2-3 of which become major hurricanes. Here's a look at an average season's progression, peaking September 10th:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

A Warm Few Days

2011-11-27T23:24:00.000-05:00

Aftershock Update

2011-11-20T06:25:00.003-05:00

Aftershock Update

2011-11-20T06:25:00.001-05:00

Louisa Aftershock?

2011-11-19T22:58:00.002-05:00

Meteor Showers Visible Overnight!

2011-11-19T06:31:00.001-05:00

Big Temperature Drop This Week

2011-11-18T12:39:00.000-05:00

Severe storms possible Wednesday

2011-11-16T05:31:00.006-05:00

Rounds of rain will continue to track northeast through central Virginia, producing heavy downpours at times. However the worst of this storm system is yet to come. Late this afternoon into this evening a cold front will move into central Virginia, producing a line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning. The primary threat with any severe thunderstorms ahead of this cold front will be damaging straight line wind gusts of 60-70 mph. However, this is also a slim chance for isolated, brief tornadoes in the yellow highlighted area on this map.

Ample moisture is in place, as well as some modest instability to encourage storm intensification ahead of the cold front.

Aside from the severe threats, heavy rain could lead to ponding on the roads and flooding of poorly drained areas and low-lying spots. Rain totals could climb as high as an inch to two inches in a broad swath of central Virginia! Rain should taper off from west to east during the first half of Thursday as this storm system moves farther offshore. It will be much cooler behind the cold front, with highs Thursday and Friday in the 50s. Seasonably cold mornings and cool afternoons will persist through the weekend with surface high pressure in the region.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall Colors -- 11/13/11 update

2011-11-13T22:08:00.001-05:00

Richmond Marathon

2011-11-11T11:17:00.002-05:00

Dense fog descends Wednesday morning

2011-11-09T04:02:00.004-05:00

Dense fog descended across much of central Virginia this morning, with the areal coverage and density even worse than in previous mornings this week. Skies were clear overnight with calm conditions, allowing the fog to redevelop. Visibilities are still being significantly reduced in spots as of 9 a.m., even down to near zero. As a result of this risk, there is a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM for all of central and eastern Virginia. The counties and cities affected are highlighted in grey on this map:

Fog should begin to mix out and dissipate by late-morning. This fog is not only confined to low-lying, agricultural, or marine regions. It is widespread and can be suddenly very dense. Please allow extra distance between you and surrounding vehicles. Slow down. Reduce distractions (like the radio, using your cell phone, etc.) and turn on your headlights to their low-beam setting. Please also be aware that overnight construction is ongoing in some places where the thick fog is also occurring.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Look East after sunset for a Moon-Jupiter meeting

2011-11-08T12:45:00.006-05:00

With clear skies this evening, go outside after sunset (it happens early at 5:05PM) and look East. The Full Moon will be bright in the sky a mere ten degrees apart from the brilliant planet Jupiter (it's the next brightest light in the sky; you can't mistake it). Here's a sky map to orient yourself on where to look (notice some of the surrounding constellations of interest):

(Map: Spaceweather.com)

Also worthy of noting is the Near Earth Asteroid "2005 YU55" that will safely pass by Earth this evening at 6:28 PM EST. The aircraft carrier-sized asteroid will be relatively close to the Earth at a mere 201,697 miles away, which is closer than the Moon's distance from Earth. However, astronomers are confident of the asteroid's track safely away from any Earth impact. Unfortunately for us, we won't be able to see the asteroid with the naked eye, or even with most standard backyard telescopes. The big research telescopes will be trained on the asteroid, though, collecting valuable scientific research for asteroid astronomers to analyze.

The last time an asteroid passed this close to earth was in 1976 when "2010 XC15" zoomed quietly by, unnoticed at the time by astronomers. Astronomers are currently monitoring approximately 1250 Near Earth Asteroids, including one that will be in our neighborhood December 26, 2011. That asteroid is a tiny 262 feet wide, and will be almost three times as far away from us as is the Moon.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Subtropical Storm Sean developed early Tuesday morning

2011-11-08T06:28:00.008-05:00

Our next named system of the 2011 Tropical Season developed early Tuesday morning east of the Bahamas in the Atlantic Ocean. Here's the latest color-infrared satellite image of the convection in Sean:

Subtropical Storm Sean will not impact the U.S., but it should track near Bermuda at the end of this week, bringing tropical storm force winds, rain, and rough waves. Here's the official forecast track for Sean from the National Hurricane Center:

So what does it mean to be a "subtropical" storm as opposed to a "tropical" storm? Sean possesses both characteristics of a tropical (warm-core low pressure system) and an extratropical (cold-core low pressure system) cyclone. The low that became Sean in the Atlantic is part of the remnants of a system that tracked through the eastern U.S. last week and stalled off-shore, spinning as a closed low for days. It's a pretty shallow low pressure system, not as deep as a tropical cyclone would be. As you could see in the satellite image above, it also doesn't "look" like a typical circulation associated with a tropical cyclone, being asymmetrical. But because of the convection and gale-force winds and rough waves, it behaves like a tropical cyclone. Therefore, it can only be classified as "subtropical."

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Subtropical Storm Sean Developing?

2011-11-07T15:53:00.003-05:00

A disturbance between the United States and Bermuda continues to produce very strong winds as it moves slowly westward. The system will eventually turn more northwesterly and then northerly, but will have enough time in a somewhat favorable environment to develop into a subtropical storm. If it does so, it would be called Sean, and the spaghetti plot above shows the collective model tracks over the next 5 days (120 hours). There will not be a threat of wind or rain to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, but rough surf and associated beach erosion will continue until this system moves north later in the week. Hurricane season officially runs until the end of November, so it's not that unusual to still have activity in the Atlantic Basin. -ZD

Fall Colors - 11/5 Update

2011-11-06T22:03:00.001-05:00

Fall Colors Update

2011-11-05T07:06:00.000-04:00

Our engineers help keep you ahead of the storm, even if it means encountering the wildlife!

2011-11-03T04:50:00.033-04:00

While performing maintenance on our CBS 6 Storm Team Metro Richmond Zoo Skytracker Camera this week, one of our engineers, Henry, encountered some of the wildlife at the camera site! Here is his tale, recounted in great pictures and his own words...

Richmond Zoo Tortoise "on the attack"

This one leaves to block the door so I can’t escape!

This one stands off and hisses in the corner:

I try to be nice to this one…

The hissing one comes closer...

Now the hissing one bites the ladder:

I can’t work on the PC until he is done with the ladder!

The hissing one sits by the ladder for 15 minutes. Finally, he leaves!
Now, I can work on the Skytracker Camera!

Thank you to our engineering staff whose work often goes unnoticed to our CBS 6 viewers. The live cameras that show current conditions in central Virgina are a tremendous asset to us as meteorologists and to you, our viewers. We have our engineers, like Henry, to thank for keeping them operational. Bravo, Henry, for your safe and successful visit to the Metro Richmond Zoo, despite a couple of tortoises who really liked you (or at least your ladder)!

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Official first freeze of Fall in Richmond on Halloween

2011-10-31T09:28:00.003-04:00

With clear skies overnight, light to calm winds, and drier air in place behind Saturday's nor'easter, temperatures fell Monday morning to and below freezing across nearly all of central Virginia, including Richmond. This is our first official freeze of the season, with a low temperature this Halloween Monday of 31 degrees at Richmond International Airport. Did you have Halloween chills this morning?

Here are some other cold Fall/Halloween statistics of interest:

Average low for October 31 is 44 degrees.
Record coldest low temperature for October 31 is 23 degrees (1936).
Trace of snow last occurred on Halloween in 2002 in the Metro.
Earliest snowfall on record for Richmond is October 10, 1979 (Trace).
Average first Fall freeze is October 30. (So we're right on track for an average this first freeze!)

Happy Halloween!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Snow in Virginia before Halloween!

2011-10-28T04:55:00.008-04:00

Snow is likely in the mountains of western Virginia from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon. After last night's cold frontal passage through the Commonwealth, a much cooler air-mass is invading the region. That will be reinforced by an approaching upper-level disturbance diving out of the Plains, pulling in another blast of even colder air. You can see the upper disturbance forecast for later today in the yellow on this map stretching from the Dakotas to Mississippi:

This upper disturbance will generate a surface low pressure system along the southeast US coast, which will track northeast past the Mid-Atlantic (bringing us rain in most of the area, but snow to the mountains) and intensify as a nor'easter for New England, bringing them their first heavy, wet snow of the season.

While this low is intensifying off our shoreline, it will pull in deeper, colder air into western Virginia. As a result, snow is likely from Friday night through Saturday afternoon in elevations 1500 feet and higher, with rain in the lower terrain. You can see the affected regions on this Winter Storm Watch map highlighted in blue:

Here is one forecast of snowfall accumulation (it's probably a little overestimated because of the wetness of this snow):

All precipitation will end in the Commonwealth from southwest to northeast by Saturday evening. With clearing skies Saturday night, temperatures area-wide will fall into the 30s, with many locations reaching the freezing mark or colder. This would be the first frost/freeze of the season across much of central Virginia on Sunday morning. If you have any plants outdoors that you want to survive this first plant-killing cold, bring them indoors or insulate them properly.
Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

October 26 Fall foliage update

2011-10-27T05:41:00.004-04:00

Fall colors are at high to peak levels in more than half of Virginia this week! I've noticed some brilliant shades on our trees in Richmond the past several days, and I've posted some of my pictures of Fall colors on my Facebook page. Click here to post your Fall pictures on my Wall, and I may show yours on TV!

Here's the October 26th update for Virginia:

You can get more details on Virginia's Fall foliage from the Virginia Department of Forestry by clicking here, and also from the Foliage Network of spotters here.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose
Click here to "Like" my Facebook page.
Click here to follow me on Twitter @SouthernRedRose.

USGS confirms another aftershock early Tuesday morning

2011-10-25T09:30:00.007-04:00

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) confirms a 43rd aftershock early Tuesday morning, October 25th (aftershock count since the initial magnitude 5.8 earthquake on August 23, 2011). This overnight aftershock was one of the smaller ones clustered in the same region south and southwest of Louisa and Mineral.

You can click here to see the full details on every single aftershock in that region since the earthquake. Here's a map displaying the cluster of all the shaking in that region since late August:

If you felt this aftershock, we're talking about it on my Facebook page. You can click here to join the conversation, as well as for updates on any further aftershocks.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Magnetic storm Monday seen in the southern U.S.

2011-10-25T05:48:00.009-04:00

A magnetic storm from the Sun slammed into the Earth's magnetic barrier on Monday, October 24, 2011 at approximately 2PM EDT. This storm resulted from an expulsion of energy from the Sun called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which interacts with the Earth's protective magnetic barrier, resulting in the aurora. In the Northern Hemisphere (where we are), this is called the "Northern Lights." However, the lights last night weren't that far North! In fact, a red aurora was spotted Monday night as far south as Virginia and even into Alabama! Here's a picture posted on our WTVR CBS 6 News Facebook Page by viewer Erica Truitt Hall.

(Photo Credit: Erica Truitt Hall, "The Aurora lights from my deck in King William.")

When the CME hit the Earth's magnetosphere (the magnetic field surrounding our planet and protecting us from the Sun's most harmful energy) Monday, it compressed parts of the field, deforming it and creating the geomagnetic storm as a result of the clash between our protective magnetic field and the slamming solar wind plasma. When these solar wind particles interact with our magnetic field, it creates stunning displays of colorful ribbons of light, usually in the polar regions. But when the Earth receives a direct blow from a strong CME, the aurora can be seen in latitudes not accustomed to seeing the Northern Lights. Many parts of North America with clear skies Monday night could see the aurora spilling south of Canada into the U.S.

For your reference, here is a vertical view to let you know where these aurora typically form:

The aurora event on Monday was photographed in more than half of the states in the U.S. You can click here to see a gallery of all pictures taken October 24, 2011 from this aurora event, including from states like Alabama and Arkansas. Also click here for more pictures posted and further updates from SpaceWeather.com.

The red aurora that was seen in the southern U.S. is a rare event, and scientists do not fully understand how this specific type of aurora develops. Click here to read more about the rare red aurora.

If you were able to take pictures Monday evening of the aurora in Virginia, please post them on our CBS 6 Storm Team Facebook Wall by clicking here!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall Foliage 10/22 Update

2011-10-23T18:43:00.000-04:00

Winter Outlook

2011-10-23T18:24:00.004-04:00

The National Weather Service recently released its new winter outlook. One factor that is looked at is whether we have an El Nino (warming of ocean water off the west coast of South America near the equator) or a La Nina (cooling of ocean water off the west coast of South America near the equator).

It looks like La Nina conditions will last for a period, and this affects the overall jet stream pattern. This change in the jet stream also produces certain winter weather effects in different parts of the country.

However, Virginia is in one zone where there are no consistently true climatological effects when it comes to La Nina. So, this would give the basic first glance that our winter could be on the average or normal side. For the Richmond metro area, that means about 10 inches of snow.

A lot of other factors affect how the winter turns out, such as patterns in the arctic and north Atlantic, but at this point, it is too early to tell if any particular pattern will lock into place for any period of time.

More On The October 13th Tornadoes

2011-10-23T18:16:00.003-04:00

The National Weather Service has issued its full report on the October 13th tornadoes.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/severe/oct_13_2011/index.html

I spy a meteor shower!

2011-10-21T08:40:00.004-04:00

If you can bear the chilly early Saturday morning temperatures in the 40s in central Virginia (and get yourself out of bed extra early in the first place!), then you could see one of the most reliable meteor showers of the year, the Orionids. Every year, the Earth in its orbit around the Sun passes through the debris left behind by Halley's Comet. At its peak early Saturday, October 22nd, you can expect to see about 15 meteors flashing across the sky per hour. Here's a sky map guide from NASA:

(A map of the morning sky on Saturday, Oct. 22nd at 5:30 a.m. local time, viewed facing southeast. Credit: NASA)

If you're in doubt, just look to the upper right of the Moon, and that should get you in the general direction of the meteors.

Stargazing tips:

Bring blankets and extra layers to stay warm!
Allow your eyes at least 15-20 minutes to adjust to the night sky to properly pick out the meteors entering the Earth's atmosphere.
Be patient! With a meteor rate of just 15 meteors per hour, you may go a while without seeing anything flashing across the night sky (other than airplanes).
Take snacks and water. You could be out there for a few hours watching the show.
Best viewing window will be from 1AM through Dawn Saturday, October 22.

Click here to track the meteor count live!
Enjoy!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall colors are reaching peak levels in western Virginia

2011-10-20T05:10:00.008-04:00

Fall foliage is reaching peak levels in western Virginia this week! If you want to plan a drive along I-81 or anywhere in western Virginia this weekend, now is an ideal time to go. Here's the latest Fall Foliage update for central Virginia:

Leaf drop is picking up in western Virginia, though, especially after the strong cold front swept through the region late Wednesday night leaving behind windy conditions for Thursday.

Another strong cold front will sweep through the region late next week, so I expect leaf drop to be even higher by next weekend. This is why I'm suggesting you "leaf peep" this weekend in the western half of Virginia this weekend as opposed to waiting until Halloween weekend. Colors should be looking better in central and eastern Virginia, though, by the end of October! For your reference, here's the map of average peak color dates for Virginia, which we are on track with this Fall:

Enjoy the Fall weather and colors!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Severe storms are possible Wednesday

2011-10-19T04:16:00.007-04:00

While a potent upper storm system tracks through toward Ohio and affects the Mid-Atlantic today and tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Threats from any severe storms that develop will include damaging straight line winds, tornadoes, and potentially some hail. Conditions will be in place this afternoon and evening that will be right for storm intensification (warm enough into the upper 70s, humid from Gulf and Atlantic moisture, with upper-level lift). The two low pressure storm systems we've been talking about merging over our region is already happening early Wednesday morning. At the upper levels, this is forming one potent closed low pressure system within a deep upper-level trough to Virginia's west. The limiting factor for severe weather, though, is much drier air rushing into the region aloft as a result of that upper trough. That is scouring out some of our moisture, which we call a "dry slot."

That upper low will track northward through Ohio and into Canada by late Thursday, with much cooler air rushing into our region behind the exiting storm system and its surface cold front. It will remain windy in central Virginia Thursday with gusts around 30-40 mph. Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Mid-week rain will result from merging storm systems

2011-10-17T08:43:00.007-04:00

Two storm systems will merge over Virginia Wednesday, producing a washout in the Commonwealth that day, bringing windy conditions, and also ushering in much cooler air for the end of the week. Parts of Virginia could get their first frosts Friday and Saturday mornings! Let's talk about where the two storm systems are right now.

One is still organizing in the Gulf of Mexico just northeast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Here's the morning color-enhanced infrared satellite image of this yet unnamed system:

And for your perspective, here's a broader infrared satellite view of the Gulf of Mexico Monday morning:

An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane is scheduled to investigate this system Monday afternoon. If it is deemed organized enough with sufficient tropical cyclone characteristics, it may become a Depression or named Tropical Storm Rina (pronounced REE-nuh). You can check back for updates on the tropics using our Hurricane Tracker Tool by clicking here.

The next system to affect us will arrive from our west as a digging trough over the central U.S., enhancing the potency of the approaching (potentially tropical) low from Florida. This will bring rain and windy conditions to Virginia Wednesday and Thursday. A strong surface cold front will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic by early Thursday as the merged upper trough and low pressure system from the Gulf lift north of Virginia. Here's what the jet stream creating the digging upper trough will look like by Wednesday morning, just as it is about to merge with the southern low:

After that merged storm system lifts north of Virginia Thursday, much cooler, drier air will surge into the Mid-Atlantic for the end of the week from central Canada. This could lead to the first frost for parts of central Virginia by Friday and Saturday morning, with lows dipping into the 30s. We'll keep you posted on that frost potential through the week as the potency of this storm system becomes clearer! For your reference, the average first Fall freeze (low temperature of 32 degrees F) for Richmond is October 29th, so a frost around October 21st would not be unusual.

Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall Colors Update, Oct 15

2011-10-15T22:22:00.000-04:00

New Kent Tornado Path

2011-10-15T22:19:00.001-04:00

Thursday tornado tally

2011-10-14T05:06:00.006-04:00

Thursday's tornado damage in central Virginia will be surveyed by the National Weather Service today, and we should know the estimated wind speeds and ratings of each tornado by later Friday or this weekend. As of this morning, there are three tornadoes we know of (confirmed by multiple sightings, videos, and pictures), two of which may have produced multiple touchdowns (see T's on the Google map below).

Here's the detailed list:

Louisa County Supercell Tornado Reports:

2 miles South of Boswells Tavern: roof damage to the historic 18th century vacant house.
Green Springs: trees down and roof damage

New Kent County Supercell Tornado Reports:

1 mile North of Five Lakes Subdivision: I-64 just East of Exit 205.
1 mile NNW of Browns Corner: George W. Watkins Elementary School
1 mile WSW of Poplar Grove: Tallysville area
1 mile North of Nance: roof damage to a home on Soldiers Rest Circle, with most of the shingles removed.
New Kent Airport: at 7100 Lake Shore Drive, a gazebo was destroyed, along with numerous uprooted fruit trees.

Prince William County Supercell Tornado Report:

2 miles WSW of Triangle: I-95 near the Quantico exit.

For the latest updates, pictures, and videos from Thursday's tornadoes, check our homepage at www.wtvr.com.

Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall colors spread east in Virginia

2011-10-13T05:50:00.009-04:00

Fall colors are entering their prime now in the southern and central Appalachian chain! Foliage spotters are now reporting "Moderate Color" for the western Piedmont to the West Virginia-Virginia state line, with "Low Color" for the rest of Virginia:

Ideal conditions have been in place for great Fall colors. The favorable factors include: last week's stretch of cool nights and sunny afternoons, combined with previous recent rains that keep the ground moist. In addition, leaf drop remains very low in central and eastern Virginia, with most of the leaves approaching peak colors remaining on the trees right now:

(Maps provided by foliage spotters at The Foliage Network)
Virginia forest experts predict this Fall season in our region will be ideal for leaf peeping and excellent color change through the rest of October into November. We are still on track for peak colors to occur right on cue for an average Fall season in Virginia:

This weekend's dry, sunny weather will be perfect for exploring the changing colors across Virginia! Get outdoors and enjoy if you can!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Aftershock felt at 12:40PM Wednesday

2011-10-12T13:09:00.005-04:00

A magnitude 3.0 aftershock rumbled southwest of Mineral mid-day Wednesday, the fifth largest and the 41st aftershock since the initial magnitude 5.8 earthquake on August 23, 2011. Today's aftershock occurred at 12:40 PM Wednesday, October 12. The US Geological Survey reports this aftershock was a magnitude 3.0, located six miles southwest of Mineral, Virginia. This is in the same general area as the majority of the aftershocks have been clustered. Here is a map of the aftershock's location, with the distance measured relative to downtown Richmond:

Louisa County Middle School briefly evacuated when the aftershock occurred.

As mentioned, today's aftershock is the fifth largest since the initial 5.8 earthquake. Here's the list of strongest aftershocks:

4.5 at 1:07 AM August 25
4.2 at 8:04 PM August 23
3.4 at 12:45 PM August 23
3.4 at 5:09 AM September 1
3.0 at 12:40 PM October 12

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you updated.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Fall Colors Update

2011-10-09T22:49:00.001-04:00

Fall Foliage Update

2011-10-05T06:32:00.009-04:00

Fall colors are starting to show in the mountains of western Virginia, and we appear to be right on track for an average peak color season. Here's the map of when average peak colors occur in Virginia (generally speaking, the farther west or higher in elevation you are, the earlier in the season the colors peak):

But if you're planning to head west for the weekend, here's the latest Fall Foliage Report on how the colors are progressing in that part of our region:

There are some trees in central Virginia, though, that are already changing colors. I've noticed those trees that are showing color here are often trees that were damaged during Hurricane Irene. This is typical behavior for distressed trees to change color and drop their leaves a little early. By doing so, it can save the life of a tree that suffered trauma during the Spring and Summer months. During droughts, trees will behave similarly.

You can learn more about Fall in Virginia from the Department of Forestry by clicking here.

Enjoy the great leaf-peeping weather over the next week!

October Outlook

2011-10-02T22:07:00.003-04:00

October Almanac

2011-10-02T08:20:00.002-04:00

September Rainfall Updated

2011-09-30T23:45:00.000-04:00

October Opens Colder

2011-09-29T23:26:00.001-04:00

A major change in the jet stream Friday night into the weekend will allow a chunk of chilly Canadian air to move into our area.

This will produce highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows by Sunday morning will drop to the upper 30s and lower 40s.

This pattern will modify next week, and temps will return to normal levels.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday

2011-09-28T06:49:00.007-04:00

After receiving torrential downpours at times over the past week (1.57" on Tuesday alone!), we're still not done with the stormy weather while the big, closed low pressure system responsible for the rain here spins over the south-central Great Lakes region. The surface cold front linked to that low is in western Virginia Wednesday morning, and will slowly move through central Virginia by late tonight, allowing drier air to begin moving into the region. But a second, stronger surface cold front will rush through on Friday afternoon, bringing an end at last to our muggy, wet, warmer-than-average weather pattern that has held Virginia in its grip for more than a week. Recent rainfall, when added to the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee earlier this month, pushed us into the Top 10 wettest Septembers on record at Richmond International Airport, and it's still raining there as of this story posting.

This afternoon during the warmest, most unstable part of the day, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, capable of damaging straight line wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, large hail, and also a couple brief tornadoes, if storms can rotate. Here's the slight risk map:

The greatest threat is in this region because it will be just east of the approaching cold front, where the atmosphere will be warm, humid, and unstable. The cold front will provide additional forcing for strong to severe storms to develop ahead of it. Stay weather aware this afternoon. And stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

This September is one of the wettest on record for Richmond

2011-09-26T12:38:00.007-04:00

Three systems this month have made this September one for the record books! As a result of rainfall from Hurricane Irene, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee, and recent days of rainfall resulting from a cut-off, closed low pressure system to our northwest and an Atlantic high to our east funneling in rich moisture day after day...Richmond International Airport has now recorded enough rainfall to rank in the Top 10 Wettest Septembers on the book!

Quite a chunk (anywhere from 10% to 40% historically) of our September rainfall can be attributed to tropical systems (ranging from full-fledged hurricanes like Irene to merely the remnants of a system that once was tropical).

Several tropical systems affected Virginia in 1999, which contributed to our wettest September on record. Here are the tracks of those that passed through or came close to Virginia with rainfall in 1999:

You'll recognize some of the other years, like 2003, in the Top 10 (resulting from the Isabel bump in rainfall, which was similar to this year's Irene totals):

And 2006 is another year Virginians remember well because of Ernesto's impressive rainfall over central Virginia:

The closed low pressure system currently still stuck spinning around Chicago, IL will finally receive a kick from the upper-level jet stream by mid-week, allowing it to migrate eastward. Its trailing surface cold front will also sweep through central Virginia Wednesday, ending an entire week of muggy, cloudy, wet weather.
Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Stagnant Weather Pattern

2011-09-23T09:59:00.004-04:00

The primary jet stream remains in the northwestern United States into southern Canada. This is separating the chilly air way up to the north and mild/warm air over much of the lower 48 states.

A storm system has been cut off from the main jet stream, and is located near Chicago. There is a cool pool of air and frequent showers with it. The combination of having warm air surrounding the storm and its location away from the main jet stream is keeping it from moving.

Over the next few days, this storm will just slowly drift through the Midwest and Great Lakes.

With that storm stuck, our area will continue under the influence of southerly winds, warm temps and moderate humidity. The moisture and humidity in place will allow for occasional storms with heavy downpours in spots.

This overall pattern is slated to change during next week, allowing more seasonable temperatures and humidity levels to return to the area by mid and late week.

Autumn Has Begun

2011-09-23T07:50:00.000-04:00

Odds Makers Favor a Pacific Landing of the NASA Satellite

2011-09-21T18:23:00.006-04:00

The top bookie in Ireland, Paddy Power, has opened a book on where the NASA satellite UARS will land when it comes blazing into our atmosphere and crashing to earth late Friday. So far, it appears the greatest odds, not surprising, are for a landing in the vast Pacific Ocean. Here are the odds for the landing of the satellite in various areas around the globe, proof that just about anything can be gambled on:

First ocean landing to be reported:

8/11 Pacific

2/1 Atlantic

6/1 Indian

10/1 Arctic

10/1 Southern

First continent landing to be reported:

9/4 Africa

11/4 South America

3/1 Asia

3/1 North America

6/1 Australia

8/1 Europe

16/1 Antarctica

66/1 Part of the satellite to land on Ireland (Must be confirmed by NASA)

-Zach

2011-09-17T07:51:00.003-04:00

There was another aftershock Friday afternoon. It occurred at 12:17 pm, and was a magnitude 2.1

Location 37.937°N, 77.987°W
Depth 2.9 miles

6 miles south Louisa & Mineral
16 miles northeast of Columbia
19 miles east of Lake Monticello
40 miles northwest of Richmond
86 miles southwest of Washington, DC

Source: Southeast U.S. Seismic Network

Perfect pairing of the Moon and Jupiter this Friday morning!

2011-09-16T06:27:00.006-04:00

The Moon and Jupiter are "hanging out" often lately in the night sky, and this Friday morning, they're perfectly paired closer to each other than most mornings so far this week. Visibility is great across the majority of central Virginia because of clearing skies overnight behind yesterday's strong cold front. If you can before sunrise at 6:52 a.m., look for the Moon and the bright, steady light just to its left. That light is the planet Jupiter!

Here is the sky-map looking Southwest from Richmond of the pairing shortly after 6:15, when I took the video below.

And here's that video I shot at the same time from outside the CBS 6 studios on West Broad Street:

If you missed this viewing opportunity this morning, don't worry, there will be other opportunities to see the two clearly in the night sky over the next week (just not this weekend because of cloud-cover). Learn more about this celestial pairing by clicking here.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

First Fall cold front arrives today

2011-09-15T08:21:00.003-04:00

A seasonably strong Fall cold front arrives in central Virginia today. As of this update, the front is already moving through the Valley of western Virginia, with dense fog and light rain, as well as cooler temperatures moving in behind the front. Here is the surface observation picture as the cold front is just moving into the Valley:

Temperatures to our northwest are already in the 40s and 50s this morning behind the front, and that's where we'll be Friday morning!

As for today, though, the rest of us in Virginia will see the increasing cloud-cover from the west through the first half of the day, with the front clearing the state to the southeast by sunset. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms along and behind the front this afternoon and evening in most of central Virginia, with overcast skies and cooler temperatures. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will remain cooler-than-normal for mid-September in the 60s (average highs for those dates: 81 degrees). As for morning low temperatures, we'll be noticeably cooler in the 40s and low 50s, so it's safe to turn off the A/C and open the windows! A word of caution, though...mold spores are an issue right now after recent heavy rainfall, and if you have an allergic reaction to mold, you don't want to open all the windows and let the mold spores indoors. In addition, it's ragweed season, and if you're allergic to that, keep the windows closed! If you do open windows through the weekend with cooler temperatures, then you WILL need to keep running that A/C to filter your in-house air and remove the invading allergens.

Nevertheless! Enjoy the first taste of Fall through this weekend!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Did You See Jupiter Last Night?

2011-09-14T17:28:00.002-04:00

If not, don't worry, you can see it again tonight and for many nights over the next few months. More often than not, Jupiter is one of the brightest objects in the sky, and it's current magnitude of -2.7 makes it the brightest object in the Virginia night sky other than the moon. Jupiter will appear as a bright star to the naked eye, but a strong pair of binoculars or a backyard telescope will reveal the yellowish sphere and several of Jupiter's largest moons. To find the planet, look to the ENE after 9 PM. It will rise higher in the sky throughout the evening and overnight hours. Check it out! -Zach

Tropics Update: More Activity Next Week?

2011-09-13T16:35:00.004-04:00

We had a rush of tropical activity leading up to the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10th, but it has been pretty quiet ever since, with only the anemic Maria floundering in the western Atlantic. The medium range models continue to suggest we'll see a couple of systems try to develop next week, and given the proximity to the peak of the season and several disturbances coming off the west African coast, this seems reasonable. Below is a plot of tropical storm and hurricane frequency throughout the hurricane season, and you can see we're still very much in the meat of the peak time for tropical activity. Above is a plot of tropical cyclone origin during the September 11-20 ten-day time period which we are in right now, and over the years we've seen development in nearly all areas of the Atlantic Basin. Enjoy the lull while we have it! -Zach

Coolest Weather Since May

2011-09-11T22:33:00.002-04:00

A major pattern change later this week will allow highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the lower 50s (40s in the outlying areas). We haven't seen weather this cool since early/mid May.

Lee Drops Highest Rain Totals on Virginia

2011-09-09T17:37:00.002-04:00

The remnant moisture of Tropical Storm Lee dumped torrential rainfall over nearly two dozen states over the past week. While other regions have seen greater problems due to flooded rivers, no other state experienced greater rainfall totals than Virginia. It's still raining up in Pennsylvania at the time of this post, so the order of these might change, but as it stands now, Colonial Beach received more rainfall than any other community. We'll fortunately have much drier weather this weekend into the first half of next week. -Zach

A week of heavy rain

2011-09-09T07:35:00.004-04:00

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee have kept frequent showers and storms in the area over the past few days. Some areas have received over 10" of rain just since Tuesday morning.

When you add this to the rain Irene brought the other weekend, area totals have exceeded 10" in many areas with a few isolated spots near 20" east of I-95.

Here is a map of total rainfall through Thursday morning:

Dense fog descends Thursday morning

2011-09-08T07:10:00.007-04:00

After torrential downpours over the past two days, dense fog has descended upon all of central Virginia Thursday morning. Visibilities this morning are being reduced in places to a half-mile or worse. Please use extra caution commuting this morning, as visibility can suddenly plummet. Allow extra distance between you and surrounding vehicles, slow down, and use your low-beam headlights, even though we are past sunrise. Fog should begin to mix out by mid-morning.

Here are some of the pictures from this morning's dense fog around the Richmond metro area.
Dominion Cam in Downtown Richmond (pointed SW toward the James River):

WTVR CBS 6 Rooftop Cam (pointed east along West Broad Street toward the Science Museum):

Richmond Zoo Camera:

So how much rain have we received the last couple of days? Record rainfall for Richmond International Airport!

And here's a radar-estimated map of central Virginia rainfall the past two days:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Tropics Update: Maria Forms and Nate Developing

2011-09-07T14:52:00.006-04:00

The tropics are teeming with activity today, and right on schedule, as the peak of hurricane season arrives this weekend. Hurricane Katia continues to move northwestward, but all models are in very good agreement of a northerly and then northeasterly turn over the next 24 to 48 hours. The main threat to the U.S. will continue to be large waves and dangerous rip tides. Tropical Storm Maria formed this morning in the central Atlantic, and is expected to be slow to strengthen as it heads west-northwestward over the next several days. Here's the latest official track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

The system is expected to be at roughly 70 degrees west and 23 degrees north and on a northwesterly track on Monday morning. An upper-level trough is depicted by some of the medium range models to be in place which would help to erode the subtropical ridge and impart a more northerly turn to Maria by the middle of next week. There is a quick shift, however, to more of a ridge across the eastern U.S. later in the week, which could be more favorable for an East Coast landfall. Needless to say, Maria will be in interesting storm to track over the next week, as much could change in the eventual course. Another system is in the developing stage in the Gulf of Mexico. Here's the latest spaghetti plot of model guidance for this disturbance:

This disturbance is not even a tropical depression at the time of this blog entry, but given the intensity forecast below, there's the likelihood of this becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen and then Tropical Storm Nate.

I'll continue to track these systems and bring you updates over the next several days. -Zach

Heavy rain likely over the next several days

2011-09-05T08:40:00.006-04:00

Heavy rainfall is likely over the next several days in central Virginia, and in much of the Eastern U.S., as a result of an upper trough swinging out of the Upper Midwest and pulling in the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee from the Gulf Coast states. Widespread rainfall totals of 1"-3" are likely over the next several days, with higher totals up to 6"-10" in some locations.

Flash Flood Watches extend from the Canadian border in the Northeast all the way through Virginia and down to the Gulf Coast.

Our heaviest rainfall should occur Tuesday afternoon, overnight, and through Wednesday, when we have our Flash Flood Watch in effect for parts of west, southwest, and north-central Virginia.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Third-biggest aftershock rattles Virginia Thursday morning

2011-09-01T06:50:00.008-04:00

The third-biggest aftershock since "the big one" a week ago Tuesday woke many Virginians up a little early Thursday, September 1 at 5:09 AM EDT as a magnitude 3.4 earthquake centered slightly northeast of the town of Cuckoo, south of Mineral, occurred. This aftershock has been reviewed by a seismologist, and you can read their full report by clicking here.

USGS Topographic Map, Resolution: 16.0 meters/pixel

Here is the ranking now of our earthquake and the biggest aftershocks since last Tuesday:

This morning's magnitude 3.4 ties the aftershock from August 24th, less than 24 hours after the initial 5.8 earthquake. There have been an official total of 22 aftershocks in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone since "the big one." As of this blog posting, people are reporting into the USGS feeling this morning's aftershock as far north as Baltimore and into southern Virginia from around Lynchburg to Chesapeake.

More aftershocks are likely in the coming weeks, but are not likely to surpass the magnitude of the first earthquake, 5.8.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Will Irene's name be retired?

2011-08-30T12:56:00.006-04:00

CBS 6 Meteorologist Carrie Rose contacted the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center to inquire about whether or not "Irene" will become a retired name, considering the destruction and death toll caused by her. Here's the answer (via email) from a National Hurricane Center representative:

"Hello Carrie,

Thanks for your email.

The decision to retire a name is made by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region IV Committee during their annual meeting, which will take place in the spring. The representative of a member nation on this committee can ask for a name to be retired. A vote is taken on that request. If accepted, the name is retired and a new name is voted upon to replace it.

Best regards,

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
Meteorologist
NOAA Communications & External Affairs"

Image: Hurricane Irene along the Delmarva coastline on Saturday, NOAA.

So this means we may not know if "Irene" becomes a retired name, like Katrina and Isabel, for example, until next Spring. Click here to see a list of the retired names. And click here to see what tropical cyclone names are currently in rotation.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Tropical Storm Katia forms Tuesday

2011-08-30T05:21:00.005-04:00

As expected, the large tropical wave that moved off western Africa into the Eastern Atlantic earlier this week has strengthened enough to earn a name: Katia (pronounced KAH-tya). Here is the Tuesday Morning (Eastern Time) view of the Tropics, with Tropical Storm Katia in the bottom right in the red:

Our newest Tropical Storm of the 2011 season will also likely become our second hurricane (Irene was the first) within the next two days, and our second major hurricane by this weekend! Why will this happen? Because Katia will be moving over very warm, favorable ocean waters on which to feed (plenty of moisture as fuel), and also encounter minimal shear, which allows the storm to organize and intensify. Here's the expected track of Katia, as she moves west-northwest around the base of a large Atlantic High Pressure:

Forecast model data is consistent with this track, and they are all in pretty good agreement of the intensification forecast. Here's a look at that:

Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Irene gone, Jose almost gone, and Katia soon to be...

2011-08-29T08:35:00.012-04:00

Hurricane Irene fully transitioned to an extra-tropical cyclone late Sunday, and today it continues to weaken while its remnants move into northeast Canada. You can check the rest of www.wtvr.com for full Hurricane Irene coverage and recap, but here's a quick look at some of the worst of the storm.
Strongest Wind Gusts:

Highest Rainfall Totals:

As a result of Irene's heavy rainfall, we made up our year-to-date rainfall deficit to the exact amount! Check the statistics out:

As for the Great Dismal Swamp wildfire burning in Southeast Virginia, it's out! According to this morning's update on the Active Fire Mapping Program, the "Lateral West" fire is no longer considered an "incident." Rainfall totals in that part of the state were 10"+.

The mouth of the Chesapeake Bay also reported a surge of 4 feet, and the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel surge level matched the record level of Hurricane Isabel from 2003 (approximately 7.5 feet).

Activity in the tropics continues to ramp up, as is typical for this time of the tropical season (see the activity graph here):

If you blinked, you missed Tropical Storm Jose's development this weekend, and it's expected to weaken this afternoon well north of Bermuda. Here's the Monday morning update on Jose:

And Jose will likely be history by this afternoon as it moves into the cooler North Atlantic waters and encounters more wind shear:

A strong, large wave off the western coast of Africa moved south of the Cape Verde Islands Sunday into early Monday, and now we have Tropical Depression #12. This system is already strengthening and may be named Tropical Storm Katia later today, and may even become our second hurricane of the 2011 season by mid- to end-week. What may become Katia will not impact any landmasses through the end of this week.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose
Join the conversation at Carrie's Facebook page by clicking here.
Receive brief, informative weather Tweets by following Carrie @SouthernRedRose.
Keep up with activity in the Tropics using our Hurricane Tracker Tool.

Rain Stats Updated

2011-08-28T19:01:00.002-04:00

The rainfall from Irene set a new 24-hour record for Richmond International Airport, shattering the old record from 1899.

This significant rainfall also helped erase the 5" rainfall deficit for the year, and place the monthly and seasonal stats into surplus territory.

The coming week will be mainly dry, so these numbers will drop a bit.