Strong Storms to Affect Central Virginia Overnight

Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible overnight in central Virginia. The most intense storms will contain small hail, wind gusts to 35 mph, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.

Zach

Active Severe Weather This Year

This is somewhat of a continuation of Zach's blog entry from yesterday. 2008 is been an active severe weather year to say the least. Below is a map that plots all the severe weather storm reports across the area for this year. Here is a breakdown of the stats:

Tornado (red): 51
Wind damage (blue): 616
Hail (green): 324

Compare these stats to last year's reports:

Tornado: 2
Wind damage: 480
Hail: 242

Isolated Showers This Morning

Showers continue to pop up across the area for this morning. I have activated the Interactive Storm Room - stop by for a live stream of Doppler Max 6, the weather center, and a live chatroom. You can find the link on the front page of our website. Spotty showers will be possible for the rest of today and into tonight.

National Weather Service Confirms EF0 Tornado

The storm that prompted a tornado warning last Friday did in fact produce a tornado, according to a survey conducted by the National Weather Service in Wakefield, Virginia. The tornado warning was issued for Surry, Sussex, and Prince George counties as Doppler radar indicated a short-lived, but strong velocity couplet. Pictures taken from residents in the area (see earlier post) show a lowering (wall cloud) with this storm as it moved over HWY 460. Here is the brief storm report issued this morning at 11:37:
EF-0 tornado damage in the 8200 block of General Mahone Highway between Wakefield and Waverly. Numerous large tree limbs down. Power line down. Damage to shed. Shingles blown off house. Damage consistent with wind gusts of 65 to 70 mph.

The time of touch down was approximately 2:00 pm, 4 miles northwest of Wakefield. There will be a threat for a few strong storms again on Tuesday for parts of the state.

Zach

Pictures From Colorado

I just got back from visiting family in Colorado. Because of the elevation, trees are already starting to change. Here are a few photos from my trip. You can see that the aspen have turned a golden yellow. It was beautiful!

Once the trees start changing here in Virginia, be sure to send in your photos and we will post them here on our blog!

Good Monday Morning!

Things are nice and quiet to start off the workweek. Here is your planner for the rest of today:

10 AM: Partly cloudy...74
NOON: Partly cloudy...78
4 PM: Partly cloudy...80
9 PM: Mostly clear...70

Strong Storms Prompt Tornado Warnings

Showers and a few thunderstorms continued this afternoon, and a few of these storms had short-lived, but significant rotation. Tornado warnings were issued with one area of storms for Southampton, Sussex, Surry, and Prince George counties. This picture was sent to us by a CBS 6 viewer as the storm moved over HWY 460 near Wakefield.

Zach

Rainfall Amounts

Rainfall amounts have been pretty impressive across the region. Many locations picked up between 2-3 inches. Andrew Mahaney reported 2.05" in Short Pump overnight. Dabney Oakley reported 2.50" near Tuckahoe Elementary School in the West End.

Jennifer Haynes

Heavy Rain Effect

A south Richmond homeowner sent in a photo of the flooding in her neighborhood. The photo really captures the power of a storm system. Tune into CBS 6 for the entire story. Please send us your photos of any storm damage.
Jennifer

Rain Continues

You have probably noticed that we are not on the air right now. We are experiencing technical difficulties due to the recent storms.
Meanwhile, I am still tracking some rain on DopplerMax 6. There are pockets of heavy rainfall over Caroline, Hanover and New Kent counties. The good news there are no thunderstorms around the region.
Be careful on the roadways and be on the lookout for areas of ponding.

Jennifer

Heavy Rain and a Few Thunderstorms Moving into Central Virginia

Latest radar imagery from Doppler Max 6 indicates a large area of heavy rain moving back into central Virginia. A few embedded thunderstorms will be possible, especially across southeast Virginia. Low-level shear will be enhanced as rain bands move onshore in southeast Virginia, increasing the threat for isolated tornadoes.

Zach

Tropical Storm Kyle

A disturbance north of Hispaniola has been upgraded to tropical storm Kyle as of 5 PM Thursday. Kyle is moving north at 8 mph, and that direction of movement is expected to continue over the next several days (see forecast track). Kyle could strengthen to a category 1 hurricane this weekend.

Zach

Heavier Rain Moving Into Central Virginia

A large area of moderate to heavy rain is moving westward into central Virginia. As of 2 PM, the total rainfall at RIC was 0.14, with .4 to .6 of an inch of rain being recorded on the eastern Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. Hampton Roads, especially near Norfolk, has seen upwards of 1.5 inches of rain, with heavy rain continuing. I expect that the Richmond Metro Area will see the rainfall increasing by 2:30 PM, with an additional .5 to .75 of an inch in most areas through 5 PM.

Zach

Intense Low Pressure to Bring Wind and Rain to the State

An area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina will continue to intensify Wednesday night into Thursday morning, possibly becoming Subtropical Storm Kyle during that timeframe. Expect sustained northeast winds of 20-30 mph in central Virginia on Thursday, with stronger winds across southeast Virginia, and in the higher elevations of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wave height on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay will be in the range of 5 to 6 feet, with waves of 8 to 10 feet expected in and near Virginia Beach. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the Middle Peninsula and Hampton Roads, where minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Rain will move into the area Thursday morning and should continue intermittently through Saturday morning.

What is the Autumnal Equinox?

During the summer, the earth is tilted towards the sun so that the most direct sunlight is hitting 23.3 degrees north (Tropic Of Cancer). This gives us our toasty temperatures from June through September.



During the winter, the earth is tilted away from the sun so that the sun's most direct rays are located at 23.3 degrees south (Tropic Of Capricorn).

The Autumnal Equinox is the time when the Earth transitions from tilting towards to tilting away from the sun. It's also on this day that we will see twelve hours of day and twelve hours of night.

Cool Start To Today

This is one of the coolest mornings we have seen in a long time. Some areas started the day in the 40s! Clouds moving in from the southeast, but the chances for rain still look pretty slim.

10 AM: Mostly cloudy...67
Noon: Sun/cloud mixture...75
5 PM: Sun/cloud mixture...78
8 PM: Partly cloudy...69

Summer, Don't Go!!

I'll just come out and say it...I hate winter. I can't stand the cold, wind and ice. For this reason, it always makes me sad to see summer go.

I love cool summer nights. A day at the beach. Going for a walk along the James River. Hiking in the Blue Ridge. A long day of golf or a good game of tennis. Thunderstorms. Grilling out. Sitting out on a deck in Carytown. A lazy day at the pool. Watching a sunset on Church Hill. Friday Cheers on Brown Isle. A game at the Diamond.

Don't get me wrong - I love fall and look forward to seeing the leaves change. However, you better believe I will soak up every second of our waning summer tomorrow (even if I'm at work).

A Look Back On Summer

With the start of fall right around the corner, I figured it would be a good time to give a recap of summer. The maps below depict departure from normals for both temperatures and rainfall. I want to point out that the temperature map is for June 1 through August 31...instead of June 21 through September 21.





TEMPERATURES
Most of the state of Virginia was warmer than normal for this summer (even though it didn't feel like it). A lot of this can be attributed to the exceptionally hot weather we experienced in June - especially early in the month.

RAINFALL
You can see which areas were most impacted by the remnants of Fay and Hanna. There is a narrow stripe of counties west of I-95 that ended up above normal for rainfall. Otherwise, most of the state received below normal rainfall for summer.

CPC Releases 3-Month Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center has issued an updated 3-month forecast for the U.S. for the period October through December. Below is the forecast depiction of both precipitation and temperature, as they relate to seasonal normals. The Areas marked with an "A" indicate above normal conditions, while areas marked "B" indicate below normal conditions. All other areas are marked "EC", meaning equal chances of above or below normal conditions.

PRECIPITATION

TEMPERATURE

Zach

Suddenly Quiet In The Tropics

After an explosion of storms in the tropics over the past few weeks, the crickets are now chirping. However, don't be deceived by the lull in storm activity - hurricane season doesn't end for another month and a half. As always, we will keep a close eye in the tropics and keep you posted.

I wanted to share with you an amazing website that I have found. This is the most comprehensive collection of historical hurricane tracks that I've seen to date. To show you an example, here are the tracks of Dennis, Gaston and Isabel:

Just for fun, I decided to plot every hurricane in the database. What a mess!

Anyway, here is the link to the website so you can plot your own storms. Be patient at first - it takes a long time to load up all the data. Enjoy!

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Agreeable Weather for Fall Planting

High pressure will be the primary weather influence over the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the week, and likely into the first part of next week as well. With cool nights and mild afternoons, now is a great time to start Fall planting and over seeding lawns. According to most horticulturists, temperatures in the range of 60-85 degrees is ideal for the germination of cool-season grass seed. Fall and Spring both have these temperature ranges, but Fall is generally preferred because the ground is warmer and there is less weed competition. The temperatures over the next 7 to 10 days will be a few degrees cooler than the 60-85 range, but this September has yet to provide us with a stretch of consistently benign temperatures. It looks like the time is now. Mother Nature won't be helping us out with rainfall anytime soon, so be sure to keep new plants and grass lightly watered until the roots become established.

Zach

Winter Forecast?

A common question presented to me this time of year deals with how harsh or mild the upcoming Winter will be. El Nino is a decent indicator from year to year, but nothing worth betting the farm on. Computer models are iffy, and climatology is average at best, so our old friend Folklore must hold the key. For a cold winter check for the following: Bushy tails on squirrels, thick manes on horses, thick fur on deer, hornet's nests low to the ground, a hot August, a cold November, a windy Fall, lots of fog in August and October, trees that keep their leaves too long, a plethora of nuts and acorns on the ground, thick skin on onions and apples, persimmons that reveal a spoon shape when cut in half, large ant hills in late Summer, and of course, thin brown bands on woolly worms. If these prove inaccurate, Stay with CBS 6, We'll Keep You Ahead of the Storm.

Zach

Feels Like Fall

Fall doesn't officially start until Monday September 22, but it already feels like it! I walked outside a short while ago expecting to find some leaves on the ground. No such thing! So I need your help. Do you have any great photos showing the fall season beginning to arrive near your home? If so send them to me at JHaynes@wtvr.com.

The remainder of the day will be gray with some light showers popping up in the afternoon and early evening. Afternoon highs will only climb into the mid to upper 70s.

The Harvest Moon

The Harvest Moon, which occurred early this morning in central Virginia, is no doubt the most notable of full moons in today's society. It's defined as the full moon which occurs closest to the Autumnal Equinox (first day of Fall). The naming of the Harvest Moon can be traced back to the Native Americans, who had different names for full moons which coincided with harvesting periods or weather changes. Close to the start of Fall, the earth and the moon are oriented in such a way that the time of moonrise from one night to the next is shorter than in any other time of the year. In other words, for a few days on end close to the start of Fall, the moon rises right around nightfall. This provides a little extra light with which to finish the harvest, and is how the Harvest Moon got it's name.

Zach

Quiet Weather

We are finally seeing some relief from the humidity. The afternoon will provide lots of sunshine and breezy conditions. The winds will subside later this evening with overnight lows dropping down into the 60s.

There is a chance for a few showers on Tuesday due to a cold front stalled in North Carolina. Communities from south of the 64/95 corridor will have the better for showers.

Jennifer

Early Migration Of Geese?

Both yesterday and today I have spotted a few "V" shaped flocks of geese flying through the sky. I thought this was a little strange - don't geese migrate later in the fall? Were these birds confused, or did they sense something that triggered their migration...possibly a cold snap? I wonder if I could use them to make a long range forecast!

I used my good ol' friend Google and did some brief researching on the topic. Apparently there is a booming population of resident geese in Virginia. They are larger than migrant geese and can handle winters better. Residents also know where to find find food and learn to avoid hunting grounds. But would these birds fly in formation from golf course to golf course? I did some more digging...

A long time ago, a study was done at the University of Virginia. Here is a passage from the introduction:

Early fall migration is significantly related to an increased frequency of cyclonic disturbances off the United States east and gulf coasts. Years in which autumn migration is delayed occur when the Atlantic coast storm track is displaced northward.

In other words, an active weather pattern can trigger early migration. If you think about it, the tropics have been very active this season. Fay, Gustav, Hanna and now Ike have brought stormy conditions to the Gulf, Deep South, East Coast and the Midwest.

Has this triggered an early migration of geese? For now, one can only watch and wonder. If you have any insight on the topic, feel free to leave a comment here on the blog, or drop me an email at ajustus@wtvr.com

Here are some useful links I found:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/380737u188354031/

http://en.allexperts.com/q/Wild-Animals-705/Canadian-Geese-made-home.htm

Ike Videos

Here is some video from Clear Lake TX where the center of Ike crossed last night.


Here is another video that we showed during the newscast. I have mixed feelings about this clip. I guess it's nice to see that people can keep a sense of humor in the midst of all that destruction.

Get Ready For The Heat!

Thunderstorms continue to develop between Fredericksburg and Washington DC. Although most rain will remain in this area, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible for the entire area until midnight. Then the chances for rain will quickly drop later tonight.

The center of Ike will move towards Indiana and Ohio tomorrow as it merges with a front.

We will have a strong southerly flow ahead of this storm system. This will allow temps to soar into the mid and possibly upper 90s across the state! To put things into perspective, the record high tomorrow in Richmond is 95, which was set back in 1980.

The heat will not last long...the flow on the backside of this storm will pull in cooler air by Tuesday.

Strong Storm Still Lingers

A strong thunderstorm continues to move through Louisa County. It is moving southeast at 15 mph and will affect Montpelier, Gouldin and Goodall in the next half hour. You can expect heavy downpours, strong winds and frequent lightning with this storm. Some small hail is also possible.

Isolated Thunderstorms In The Area

A couple thunderstorms have popped up in Albemarle and Louisa counties. These storms are drifting very slowly to the southeast at 15 mph and affect areas like Louisa, Buckner, Apple Grove and Palmyra. Although most areas will remain dry, there is the threat for isolated thunderstorms through sunset.

Ike Makes Landfall

The center of Ike made landfall near Galveston TX as a Category 2 hurricane last night. It should weaken to a tropical storm later this evening as it moves northward towards Arkansas.

Back here at home, things look nice and toasty for this weekend. Today would be a perfect day to be near a pool or head on out to the James River and soak up the sunshine! If I had the day off, I would be heading to the beach...those days are numbered as summer slowly dwindles.

Whatever you decide to do, have a great weekend!

Ike to Make Landfall After Midnight

Ike should make landfall tonight as a catergory 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph and a storm surge of 20-25 feet. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting up to 15 inches of total rainfall to accompany Ike near the Texas coast. The yellow shadings in the graphic below are estimates of 7-9 inches, and the blue areas bounded by the yellow areas represent totals of 13-15 inches. The remnant moisture from Ike will merge with frontal system that will move through Virginia on Monday.


Zach

Friday Forecast

We are seeing some breaks in the cloud cover across the region. Temperatures will respond by climbing into the lower 80s.

A disturbance approaching from the west will bring a chance for some rain late this afternoon and evening. The bulk of the precipitation will be to the far north. But we could pick up a few isolated storms with some heavy rainfall.

The wet weather will be out of here for the weekend. Saturday will be warmer and more humid with highs in the upper 80s.

Jennifer

Summer's Last Gasp?

With a little more than a week left in Summer, many of us are already making the mental transition to the onset of Fall in Virginia. The recent stretch of cloudy and mild weather has seemed like the fitting beginning to the gradual stair-step down toward freezing temperatures. But Mother Nature has other plans. A ridge of high pressure will build into the area Saturday and Sunday, resulting in near-record temperatures for the area. Our forecast high of 94 in Richmond will be only one degree shy of the record of 95 set back in the scorching Summer of 1980. The heat will last for only a short period of time, however, as a strong cold front should bring temperatures back to near normal for much of next week.

Zach

Cloudy & Cool Again

We picked up a little more than a .50 inch of rainfall overnight at Richmond International airport. There is a chance for some communities to the south of Richmond to pick up a few more showers later today. The extensive cloud coverage will limit high temperatures to the mid to upper 70s.

Jennifer

Quiet Weather Expected Through Thursday

Cloudy skies with occasional showers has lead to a pretty comfortable afternoon and evening in Virginia. High temperatures stayed in the 60s and 70s area wide with light northeast winds. A few showers will continue to be possible late tonight across southern Virginia. Ike is now a category 2 hurricane with max winds of 100 mph. I'll have another update on Ike, and a look at our next chance of storms tonight at 11 PM on CBS 6.

Zach

Cloudy & Cool

A northeasterly flow will keep the heavy clouds around for the remainder of Wednesday. We could see a few isolated showers popping up in afternoon and evening. Communities southeast of Richmond will have better chance for a few isolated showers.

The clouds will keep central Virginia unseasonably cool. Afternoon readings will struggle to make it into the mid 70s. More clouds and 70s are in store for Thursday.

Have a nice day!

Jennifer

Watch Has Been Canceled

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been canceled. Isolated showers will still be possible this evening and into tonight but the threat for damaging thunderstorms has diminished.

Line of Strong Storms Developing

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 9 PM for east-central, south-central, and southeast Virginia, including the Richmond Metro Area. Wind gusts to 70 mph and hail to the size of quarters will be possible with the strongest storms. We are covering the storms live in our CBS 6 Interactive Storm Room.

Zach

Storms Starting To Pop

A line of storms is forming from the Northern Neck through Richmond and down along I-85 to the stateline. The southeastern third of Virginia has seen some sunshine today, so the best chances for severe storms will be in this area. I wouldn't be surprised if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued soon for those areas - which includes the Richmond metro and Petersburg.

Thunderstorm Watch Far North

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for King George, Spotsylvania and Stafford counties until 4:00 PM today. We will keep you up to date if the weather situation changes.

Jennifer

Storm Chance Today

We are dealing with cloudy but dry conditions right now in Central Virginia. Expect some showers to pop up in the early afternoon. There is a better chance for some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Some of the storms could produce damaging winds or small hail.

Jennifer

Active Pattern Underway

A progressive weather pattern has developed across the eastern U.S., which should bring us quick changes over the next several days. Looking at the 7-day forecast, you'll find highs in the mid-70s and upper 80s, as well as rainy days followed by mostly sunny days. It's the kind of pattern typical for this time of the year, as we begin to transition from Summer into Autumn, and the jet stream dips farther south. Our rainfall surplus for 2008 is an even 6" today, and will likely be supplemented by thunderstorms on Tuesday and Friday.

Quiet Monday

Monday afternoon feels much warmer than yesterday thanks to the humid conditions. Afternoon readings will peak in the upper 80s. Expect partly cloudy skies tonight with morning lows in the upper 60s.

The weather will become more active on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will likely trigger some strong storms with damaging winds.

A big cool down arrives on Wednesday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Drought In The Southwest Could Affect Foliage

Recent rain from Fay and Hanna have definitely helped with the drought in central Virginia. Here are the rain totals so far this year in Richmond. You can see that we are well above normal and way above the total from last year.

Things are not looking as good for some communities to the east of I-95. I got an email from a viewer in Toano who said that they only received .75" from Hanna and need more rain. However, conditions to the southwest are even worse. These areas saw almost no rain from Hanna! Looking at the current stream flow of rivers across the area, you can see a lot of red dots indicating flow that is well below normal in that region.

Drought conditions can have a major impact on fall foliage. During the summer, moderate temperatures and above normal rainfall will yield the brightest colors. So if this trend continues, the colors could be affected in areas around Roanoke, Blacksburg and farther west.

Rain Totals From Hanna

The center of Hanna is long gone (now in New England). Below is a map of estimated rain totals across the area from today. As you can see from the map, west of I-95 got hit the hardest with heavy rains.

We have a lot of moisture in the air from these heavy rains, so expect patchy fog to develop tonight and into tomorrow morning. The fog will lift in the late morning hours and Sunday will finish partly cloudy. Enjoy it!

Aaron

Hanna Quickly Exits

Showers have now tapered to isolated sprinkles across our area as the center of Hanna races into Delaware. Winds are from the northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds will diminish to 10 to 20 mph from 8-10 PM, then drop to 5 to 10 mph later tonight.

Most areas around Richmond and Petersburg received 2 to 4" of rain. Totals were much higher to the west of I-95, where areas received 5 to 7". The hardest hit were Buckingham, Prince Edward and Charlotte counties, where isolated areas exceeded 8"!

Here is a map of current stream and river flow. As expected, streams are flowing well above average along and west of I-95 (indicated by the blue dots). Some streams are overflowing, which are indicated by the black dots. Also notice the red dots to the southwest corner of the state. This area received almost no rain today, so streams are flowing well below normal.

Gusty Northwest Winds in the Metro Area

Northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 have moved back into the Richmond Metro Area. We will also receive one last burst of moderate rainfall before things taper off around 3 pm. The center of tropical storm Hanna is located just northeast of Williamsburg, and the storm continues to move northeast at 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph.

Zach

1 PM Update

Winds out at RIC have shifted from southeasterly at noon to northwesterly at 1 PM, indicating the passage of tropical storm Hanna. The barometric pressure has been dropping all morning, and appears to have bottomed out at 29.43 in. of mercury. While winds have been generally light in the metro over the past few hours, a stronger northwest wind is expected over the next few hours. A new advisory with the speed, intensity, and location of Hanna will be released just before 2 PM, and the details will be included here on the CBS 6 Storm Team Blog.

Zach

Noon Update

The center of tropical storm Hanna is now located on the Sussex/Southampton county border, and moving NE at 24 mph. A statement was just released from Mecklenburg county reporting numerous trees down. Total rainfall at RIC has been about 2", with 3-6" already being reported in many areas west of I-95.

Zach

11 AM Hanna Update

At 11 AM, Hanna remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The movement of the storm is to north-northeast, and has increased to 24 mph. The rain should taper off in the Richmond metro area around 3 PM.

Zach

Core Of Hanna About To Enter Virginia

Winds are picking up ahead of Hanna, which is now centered just to the northeast of Raleigh NC...right on top of I-95. In fact, Hanna is moving along I-95 to the northeast at 22 mph. We will have periods of heavy rain through late this afternoon and then we will dry off later this evening. We will have the very latest information in our live interactive storm chat. See you there!

Heavy Rainfall Far South

The heaviest rainfall this morning has been southwest of metro Richmond. Brunswick, Charlotte, Halifax, Lunenburg and Prince Edward counties have picked up between 2-3 inches of rainfall since this morning.

Jennifer

Hanna 5:00 AM Advisory

Tropical Storm Hanna's maximum have weakened to 60 Mph since making landfall this morning. The center of Hanna will move across southeastern Virginia early this afternoon.
A tornado watch is in effect for portions of the southeast until 1:00 PM today.

Hanna Makes Landfall

National Weather Service Radar indicates that Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall near the border of South & North Carolina at 3:20 Am. More details will come shortly after 5:00 AM.

Jennifer

Local Weather Update

Hello everyone! This is Jennifer Haynes in the CBS 6 Weather center. Hanna is getting closer to making landfall near the border of North & South Carolina.

Weather conditions are fairly quiet here. We are tracking some heavy rainfall west of the I-95 corridor. The good news is there are no severe storms at the moment.

I just checked the latest surface observations and noticed the winds gusts are peaking up to 40 Mph in Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.



Jennifer

Hanna 2:00 AM Update

Tropical Storm Hanna is very close to making landfall near the border of South & North Carolina. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows Hanna has maxium winds at 70 Mph and is moving northeast at 21 Mph.

The center of storm will pass through southeast Virginia later this afteroon. Meanwhile, expect the rainfall and winds to intensify throughout the morning and afternoon.

Expect another update shortly after 5:00 AM.

Jennifer

11 PM Hanna Update

As of 11 PM, Hanna continues as a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Landfall should occur around 2 AM just north of Charleston, SC. I expect the greatest impact from wind and rain in central Virginia to occur between 11 AM and 4 PM.

Zach

Forecasted Rain Totals

Here is a map of projected rain totals from Hanna. The shades of red and bright orange indicate the potential of 3 to 6". Isolated areas within this area could easily exceed 10", just like what we saw with the remnants of Fay last week. Notice how the heavy rain extends all the way up the east coast through New England!

-Aaron-

5 PM Update on Hanna

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows very little change in Hanna over the past 3 hours. Movement of the storm continues to be to the north at 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. It is still possible that Hanna could become a hurricane (winds 74+) before making landfall near the NC/SC border early Saturday morning. Moderate rainfall will continue in Richmond and adjacent counties through 6:30 PM as an initial rain band moves through the area. Expect rain totals in the range of .25 in. to .50 in. from this first wave of rain.

Zach

Hanna Slightly Stronger...Nearing Hurricane Strength

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that Hanna now has max winds of 70 mph, and is moving north at 20 mph. The initial rain bands on the north side of Hanna are beginning to move into central Virginia. Expect rain to begin in Richmond at approximately 4:30 PM. A flash flood watch has been issued for all of central Virginia, in the anticipation 3-6 inches of rain.

Zach

11 AM Update: Hanna Accelerating to the NW

The 11 AM update from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hanna continues as a strong tropical storm with max winds of 65 mph.  The speed of the storm has increased to 20 mph, and continues in a northwesterly direction.  Although the westerlies will eventually steer Hanna to the north and eventually to the northeast, I think the momentum of the storm will result in a landfall a little farther south than in previous forecasts.  Hanna should move onshore just north of Charleston, SC at 4 AM Saturday.  A gradual turn to the north and northeast will bring the storm over Raleigh and then Richmond.  The center of Hanna should be over the Northern Neck at 8 PM Saturday evening.  I'll have another update as soon as new data arrives at 2 PM today.

Zach

Tropical Storm Hanna

Tropical Storm Hanna is producing rain showers in portions on Florida. Some of the rain bands are already making it to the coastal portions of the Carolina's. Hanna will gradually increase its forward speed and is expected to make landfall near the North & South Carolina border early Saturday morning.

A tropical storm warning is now in effect along the Virginia coastline. Expect rain showers to arrive late this afternoon and evening along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Hanna will produce periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Keep in mind there is still a possibility that Hanna could restrengthen into a weak hurricane.

Jennifer

Hanna and Ike Maintaining Strength

There has been very little change in tropical storm Hanna or hurricane Ike over the past several hours. Hanna continues as a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, while Ike is a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. The latest data just coming in to the CBS 6 Storm Center indicates the possibility of Hanna making landfall in South Carolina, with a slower and more westward progression through Virginia. This new track would take the center of the storm over Richmond Saturday afternoon. The official National Hurricane Center forecast is continuing with a more eastward track of Hanna, taking the center across the Norfolk area midday Saturday. Ike will still be a very powerful hurricane by the beginning of next week, with a good chance of making landfall in Florida.

Zach

8 PM Update on Hanna

As of 8 PM, Hanna continues as a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.  The updated forecast track has Hanna due east of Richmond over the Chesapeake Bay at 2 PM on Saturday.  The next update on Hanna will be issued at 11 PM tonight.

Zach

Tropical Storm/Flash Flood Watches Issued

A tropical storm watch for Saturday has been issued for counties along and east of the Chesapeake Bay. This watch includes counties on the western shore of the Bay, located in the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. A flash flood watch is in effect for northern Virginia, including Orange and Spotsylvania counties. Despite not being in a watch, central and southern counties are expected to receive periods of torrential rainfall, possibly exceeding 6 inches. The next update on Hanna from the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 8 PM, and I will include the details here on the blog.

Zach

Hanna continues as a strong tropical storm

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has Hanna as a strong tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. A new update will be issued shortly before 5 pm, and I'll post the latest on Hanna here on the blog. Have a great afternoon.

Zach

Hanna Update

Thursday will provide lots of sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower 90s.

The weather gets more interesting on Friday. The day will start off partly sunny with increasing cloud cover. The approach of Tropical Storm Hanna will mean a chance for thunderstorms late Friday and Saturday. Some of these storms will produce heavy rain and very gusty winds. Communities to the east of I-95 will be most affected by this storm. The remnants of Hanna will quickly move out of the region by Sunday.

Jennifer

Hanna strengthens...Ike now a major hurricane

The 8 PM update shows that both Hanna and Ike have increased their maximum sustained wind speeds.  Hanna is still a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph, and Ike is now a category 3 major hurricane, with winds of 115 mph.  Hanna is still expected to make landfall near the NC/SC border early Saturday morning, while Ike is expected to reach the Bahamas by the beginning of next week.  I'll have another update later tonight.

Zach

Hanna Update

Tropical Storm Hanna has begun to move northward this afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The latest track has Hanna moving just east of Richmond as a tropical storm Saturday afternoon. On this track, we should see periods of very heavy rainfall, sustained winds of 35-45 mph with higher gusts, and the threat for tornadoes. I'll have another update on the strength and track of Hanna later tonight.

Zach

Hanna Update

Tropical Storm Hanna is currently spinning off the northern coast of Haiti. It's expected to cause deadly flash flooding and mudslides across Hispaniola today. We are expecting Hanna to regain hurricane strength late tonight or tomorrow.

The storm will make landfall late Friday or early Saturday near along the South Carolina coast. I think the best timing for rain for us will be late Friday afternoon and early Saturday. Expect heavy rainfall and periods of severe weather especially east of Interstate -95.

Jennifer Haynes

Hanna Still On Track

This evening's data is still very consistent with the track of Hanna. For this reason, I feel confident increasing our rain chances for Friday and Saturday. I had a professor in college that told me to never give a forecast with 100% or 0% chance for rain. He reasoned that things can always change in the future. For this reason, I have put an 80% chance for rain on Friday and 70% on Saturday. Showers should start to taper late in the day on Saturday as Hanna races up the east coast.

-Aaron-

Rainfall In The Past Week

Here is a map that shows rainfall over the past week. Most of this rain was associated with remnants of Fay. Notice how the eastern half of the state missed out on most of the rain.

Here is another map with stream and river data. Blue dots represent flow that is above normal, where orange/red dots are below normal. Green dots show normal flow. Last week, most streams and rivers were flowing well above average, but now a lot of them are back below normal.

It's nice to see that the ground isn't too saturated from Fay's rains. This is good news considering that remnants of Hanna could also produce some flooding in the area.

-Aaron-

Rain Potential Still Uncertain

While the track of Hanna has become more certain, the rain amounts are still a tough call. The slightest change in Hanna's path will greatly impact our rain potential. Even a fifty mile shift in the track could be the difference between potentially flooding rains or no rain at all!

The latest data pushes Hanna a little farther west than previous data. If this trend continues, then the heaviest rain totals will be along and west of I-95 from Friday into Saturday. Hardest hit areas could still receive over 10" of rain, while on average, rain totals could range from 2 to 4".

Right now winds don't look like a major concern, but as the core of the storm passes over Virginia Saturday, we could see gusts 25 to 35 mph.

More updates to come...

-Aaron-

Here Comes Hanna!

The latest data is now in complete agreement about the track of Hanna. This means that there is a high level of confidence with this forecast - Hanna is headed this way for Friday and Saturday. I will have another update in a couple hours talking about forecasted rain totals from this storm.

I want to also add that Ike and newly named Josephine are still way out in the Atlantic and are headed westward. We will continue to track these storms as they move closer to the U.S.

-Aaron-

First Day of School

High pressure is in control of our forecast today providing sunshine and hot conditions. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm climbing to 90 degrees.
The next chance for rain comes Friday from Tropical Storm Hanna, which is located near the Bahamas. The storm weakened this morning and now has sustained winds of 70 Mph. Hanna could regain hurricane status later today or tomorrow.
It's expected to make landfall late Friday near the Georgia/South Carolina coast.

No Big Changes With The Latest Data

The latest data is still in good agreement this evening. If anything, they have Hanna moving a little faster by the end of the week. If this is the case, rain could move in quicker on Friday and then move out quicker on Saturday.

I got an email from someone who wanted to know if we will see strong winds with Hanna remnants. Right now it's still too early to tell, but we could easily see winds 15 to 25 mph with stronger gusts (heavy rain will be a bigger concern). We will be able to forecast winds more accurately by Wednesday and Thursday.

-Aaron-

The Hanna Scenario: More Clear

Computer forecasts are now almost in complete agreement with the track and timing of Hanna. For this reason, the confidence level of the forecast continues to rise. Here is the latest data on the track of Hanna:



More than likely Hanna will make landfall along either the Georgia or South Carolina coast and then hook northward into North Carolina and Virginia - during this time, it will accelerate and weaken. Regardless, this storm still has the potential of dumping significant amounts of rain across the area. Here is a forecast of rain totals, if Hanna takes this track:



The deep shades of green could be anywhere from 6 to 12" of rainfall. Given the latest data, rain should start as early as Friday morning. Then we should see periods of heavy rain on-and-off through Saturday evening.

I want to also remind you that this storm is still four days away and that any shift in the track could greatly impact this forecast, so I encourage you keep a close eye to the forecast through the week. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

-Aaron-

Labor Day Forecast

Labor Day is going to be beautiful! Expect sunshine and comfortable conditions today. Afternoon highs will be seasonable climbing into the upper 80s.
The majority of your work week will be dry and hot. Remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna will lift northwest into central Virginia on Friday or Saturday. We will keep you up to date on the track of the storm.
Jennifer Haynes