Hanna Still On Track

This evening's data is still very consistent with the track of Hanna. For this reason, I feel confident increasing our rain chances for Friday and Saturday. I had a professor in college that told me to never give a forecast with 100% or 0% chance for rain. He reasoned that things can always change in the future. For this reason, I have put an 80% chance for rain on Friday and 70% on Saturday. Showers should start to taper late in the day on Saturday as Hanna races up the east coast.

-Aaron-

Rainfall In The Past Week

Here is a map that shows rainfall over the past week. Most of this rain was associated with remnants of Fay. Notice how the eastern half of the state missed out on most of the rain.

Here is another map with stream and river data. Blue dots represent flow that is above normal, where orange/red dots are below normal. Green dots show normal flow. Last week, most streams and rivers were flowing well above average, but now a lot of them are back below normal.

It's nice to see that the ground isn't too saturated from Fay's rains. This is good news considering that remnants of Hanna could also produce some flooding in the area.

-Aaron-

Rain Potential Still Uncertain

While the track of Hanna has become more certain, the rain amounts are still a tough call. The slightest change in Hanna's path will greatly impact our rain potential. Even a fifty mile shift in the track could be the difference between potentially flooding rains or no rain at all!

The latest data pushes Hanna a little farther west than previous data. If this trend continues, then the heaviest rain totals will be along and west of I-95 from Friday into Saturday. Hardest hit areas could still receive over 10" of rain, while on average, rain totals could range from 2 to 4".

Right now winds don't look like a major concern, but as the core of the storm passes over Virginia Saturday, we could see gusts 25 to 35 mph.

More updates to come...

-Aaron-

Here Comes Hanna!

The latest data is now in complete agreement about the track of Hanna. This means that there is a high level of confidence with this forecast - Hanna is headed this way for Friday and Saturday. I will have another update in a couple hours talking about forecasted rain totals from this storm.

I want to also add that Ike and newly named Josephine are still way out in the Atlantic and are headed westward. We will continue to track these storms as they move closer to the U.S.

-Aaron-

First Day of School

High pressure is in control of our forecast today providing sunshine and hot conditions. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm climbing to 90 degrees.
The next chance for rain comes Friday from Tropical Storm Hanna, which is located near the Bahamas. The storm weakened this morning and now has sustained winds of 70 Mph. Hanna could regain hurricane status later today or tomorrow.
It's expected to make landfall late Friday near the Georgia/South Carolina coast.