Weather Update - Sunday 11:30 PM

There weren't any drastic changes in the latest data to make me change my mind about the current forecast. I'm still expecting this storm to track close enough to us to give us a chance for a mix of heavy wet snow and a little rain. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing during the entire event, so that will eat away at our accumulation potential. Also, if temps remain above 35, then this will be mainly a rain event.



I still think it's too early to start giving a specific forecast for snow totals, but I still think the greatest accumulation potential will remain south of our area.

Flurries Possible This Afternoon

There is *just* enough instability in the air to support isolated sprinkles and flurries across the area. Luckily temperatures are in the mid and upper 40s, so all flakes will melt on impact. I expect skies to quickly clear after sunset.

Weather Update 7:30 AM Sunday

The picture is becoming clearer as this storm approaches our area. As I've said from the start, surface temperatures will be key to the forecast. Right now it looks like temps will hover just above the freezing mark as the system passes Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will eat away at our accumulation potential. In fact, history has proven (i.e. last Wednesday night) that when surface temperatures climb to 35 or 36 degrees, we will see snow change to rain. This is a very fine line that we have to forecast and is the reason why I'm going to hold off until later this evening to speculate possible snow totals in our area.



March snow storms are actually more common than you would think. Here is a list of a few I found at the following link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/climate/RIC_Climate_Records.pdf