Bill's Forecast Track Still Uncertain

Hurricane Bill is currently moving WNW along the southern periphery of a broad region of high pressure over the central Atlantic. As Bill nears the east coast it will be nudged northward by a trough of low pressure moving through the eastern US. The timing and southern extent of this trough will be critical in determining the exact track of Bill, and the various hurricane models are having a difficult time predicting how the hurricane and the trough will interact. While the odds still favor Bill staying out to sea, an east coast landfall is not yet out of the question.

Hurricane Bill And Bermuda

Hurricane Bill continues to look like it will remain mostly in the open Atlantic Ocean for most of its life. It will, however, likely pass very near to or over Bermuda Saturday as a major hurricane (at least a Cat 3 with 111-130mph sustained winds). After that, all long-range indications show Bill taking a hard right into the North Atlantic early next week and losing tropical characteristics over the cooler ocean waters.

First Hurricane of the Season!

Early Monday, Bill was upgraded to hurricane status, the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. While the Atlantic season had been relatively quiet until the end of last week, the average first hurricane typically doesn't occur anyway until August 14. So we're still within reason of the average first hurricane forming.

Bill is currently a Category One storm, with sustained winds around 75 mph. It is expected to strengthen to a Category Three (maximum sustained winds 111-130mph) by the middle of this week, and maintain that strength into this weekend.

As Aaron mentioned previously, the long-range tracks of Bill keep it into the open Atlantic, arcing away from the U.S. East Coast this weekend, and passing into the Northern Atlantic while transitioning to an extra-tropical cyclone over cooler waters.

Still, this track can change, and we'll be monitoring Bill's progress closely this week.

--Carrie