Thunderstorms Possible Tonight

There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere to feed the thunderstorms out west...especially in the northeast corner of the state.


Surface-based CAPE

These storms are crawling to the east at around 20 to 25 mph and should affect metro Richmond between midnight and 2 AM.

Although I am not expecting these storms to be severe (i.e. causing damage), you can expect very heavy rain, 40 mph wind gusts, and frequent lightning. The strongest storms will stay north of I-64, where most of the energy resides.

Ana?

This is a loooong way away (i.e. a lot can change), but it is something we are carefully watching. Latest data has been very consistent with developing a low pressure in the Gulf next week.

The water is already very warm:


In addition, the jet stream will migrate to the north, so wind shear will be low:

If this all comes together, we could see a sub-tropical storm develop....the first named storm of the season: Ana.