Flood Watch in Effect

A developing coastal low and moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Ida will result in an extended period of moderate to heavy rainfall across parts of the area. A Flood Watch is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Periods of rainfall will begin tonight and continue through Thursday, with 4-6 inches of rainfall possible in the watch area.

Ida Extratropical

Tropical Depression Ida lost its tropical characteristics after making landfall earlier this morning on Dauphin Island, Alabama. Ida's remnants now have a "comma-shape" and the core of the system is rapidly cooling.

Ida's remnants will track northeast into the Carolinas tonight and Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall along the way in parts of the Tennessee Valley, Appalachia, and the Carolinas. Up to 8" of rain is possible in isolated spots, with more widespread totals of 3-6" expected in the Southeast.
Along the coasts of Virginia and the Carolinas, onshore flow should make for rough surf and rip currents, and gusty winds will be possible through Thursday.

Ida Over Mobile Bay

Tropical Storm Ida made its first U.S. landfall this morning at 6:40 a.m. Eastern on Dauphin Island, Alabama with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Now the center of circulation is over Mobile Bay about 25 miles south of Mobile, AL. Movement of the storm is to the Northeast at 9 mph, and the center of Ida should move over mainland Alabama this morning. As Ida gets caught up in a mid- and upper-level trough moving into the Eastern U.S. today, it will take a sharp turn to the east. Ida's remnants will produce rainfall totals of 3-6" over much of the Southeastern U.S. into the southern Mid-Atlantic through Thursday. Isolated totals of 8" are possible, especially in the Carolinas.

Ida made landfall as a Tropical Storm, and November landfalling hurricanes are rare. In fact, there have only been five hurricanes to make a U.S. landfall (at hurricane strength) in the month of November. Here are the ones with a record:

Hurricane Kate (1985)

Hurricane #6 (1935)

Hurricane #14 (1916)

Hurricane #8 (1861)

The 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will officially end November 30. Here's where we stand right now:

9 named storms, 3 became hurricanes (Bill, Fred, & Ida), 2 were major (Bill-Cat 4, Fred-Cat 3)

Average season:

10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2-3 major

So far as the number of named storms go, we've been average. But El Nino has produced wind shear in the Tropics that frequently disrupted tropical systems just as they were really strengthening. That might account for the below-average number of hurricanes this season. Systems were simply not able to maintain their organization long enough to strengthen to hurricane status, and thus remained weaker.

Ida's Center Nearly Onshore

Tropical Storm Ida continued to weaken overnight, and also slowed its approach to the Gulf Coast. However, the "body" of the storm's cloud-cover and rain is completely covering the Southeast this morning. Moisture from Ida will continue to overspread the region and head toward the Commonwealth this afternoon and evening, with a good chance for rain overnight and through Wednesday. Ida's remnants will be absorbed in an approaching mid- to upper-level trough now moving into the Eastern U.S., and while that trough swings through the region over the next couple of days, we will have an opportunity for rain in Virginia and through the Carolinas. The associated cold front will move south of the area Wednesday, with surface high pressure moving into the region and bringing cooler air. While Ida's remnants interact with this front, rainfall potential will linger into Thursday in Virginia, but the highest rain totals will likely be along and south of the boundary in the Carolinas.