Hurricane Earl Update 1PM Thurs

These are the latest stats on Earl as of mid-day Thursday. You'll notice that although Earl is still a Cat 4, its maximum sustained winds are down 5 mph from this morning. As I mentioned in my quick Noon update in the previous blog entry, Earl has likely already reached its peak intensity and will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours as it encounters more shear and not-as-warm ocean waters. However, Earl will still be a major hurricane with Cat 3 strength while it tracks east of Virginia Friday morning.

Earl made its north turn this morning around the Atlantic high pressure system, and will make its northeast curve tomorrow as a result of the approaching Midwest trough.

Tropical Storm Fiona appears on track to remain over the open Atlantic waters, potentially affecting Bermuda this weekend. Gaston weakened from a Tropical Storm to a Depression, but will continue to move over very warm Atlantic waters over the next week as it heads westward.

Earl: What's New At Noon

Here's a quick update as I'm on air at Noon:

*Earl has likely reached its peak intensity already as a Cat 4, and winds are down 5 mph from this morning…sustained at 140mph now. Further weakening will continue over the next 24 hours to Cat 3. Rapid weakening late Fri-Sat.
*Earl has turned due north, as expected, which will keep the eye about 50 miles offshore of Hatteras, NC, and about 100 miles east of VA Beach.
*Hurricane Force Winds extend out about 90 miles from the center…that means Hurricane force winds (likely Cat 1) will overspread much of the OBX after midnight.
*Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 230 miles from the center…which means VA Beach and everywhere in the Tropical Storm Warned area in eastern VA will get Tropical Storm Force winds (up to 73mph sustained) Friday.
*Tropical Storm force winds will reach the southern OBX early this eve.
*All data indicates the predicted NE turn in 24 hours, curving along the eastern seaboard with the eye not making landfall until either Cape Cod (there’s a chance the eye may brush it) or northern Maine/Canada border (the likely scenario).
*1”-2” rain will fall in the TS warned area…Chesapeake Bay and east. No rain for Richmond from Earl.
*Expect a breezy Friday in Richmond with the high clouds from Earl overhead.

Look Outside: Earl Approaches

If you look outside right now in central and eastern Virginia, you'll see some thin, high clouds overspreading the Commonwealth. Those are Hurricane Earl's outermost clouds advancing north of the storm!

Earl Update Thursday Morning

Hurricane Earl maintained its major hurricane status overnight and strengthened a little to maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (Cat 4). Gusts are as high as 175 mph. Just for perspective, that wind gust speed is the same as what occurs in an EF-4 tornado. Hurricane force winds (74 mph +) extend out from the eye of the storm 90 miles, with tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extending out about 230 miles. The eye of the storm is about 360 miles south-southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina early Thursday morning. Earl will likely pass about 40 miles to the east of Hatteras overnight tonight as either a strong Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane. As a result, Hurricane Warnings exist for all of eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks up to the Virginia state line.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for all of Virginia's coast from the Eastern Shore to Hampton Roads to southeast Virginia.

High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough approaching the eastern U.S. are steering Earl's track along the East Coast.

But this will be a very close pass by the Outer Banks overnight into Friday morning:

IMPACTS:

*Tropical Storm force winds (39-73 mph) will overspread the Outer Banks this afternoon. Hurricane force winds (74 mph +) will impact the Outer Banks, especially north of Hatteras, overnight.

*Far Eastern Virginia will experience Tropical Storm force winds Friday.

*Storm surge from the south Chesapeake Bay southward along the Virginia Atlantic coast to the North Carolina state line will be 3-5FT.

*Storm surge for the rest of Virginia's Tropical Storm Warned area will be 1-3FT, with upriver flooding.

*Windy day in the rest of Central Virginia Friday at 15-25 mph, with higher gusts the farther east of I-95 you are.

There are a trio of named storms in the Atlantic right now, including Earl, but also including two tropical storms: Fiona and Gaston.

Fiona looks like it will remain at sea and impact Bermuda this weekend.

As for Gaston, it's still too soon to say where it will track once it approaches the Leeward Islands.