Record Highs In Jeopardy

Here are the record highs for the next three days:

Friday...103 set in 1952
Saturday...99 set in 1995
Sunday...99 set in 1987

It will be close on Friday, but we should definitely break the record on Saturday and Sunday.

Tropical Depression #3 Forms

As of 11 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression #3 has formed, and Bonnie may be soon to follow once the U.S. Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft thoroughly investigates the depression this afternoon. The center of circulation is 265 miles southeast of Nassau, Bahamas, and the system is tracking west-northwest at 15 mph. TD #3 should accelerate during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are about 35 mph with higher gusts, and with further strengthening possible today, this system should become Tropical Storm Bonnie later Thursday. The same broad ridge of high pressure that is currently bringing a heat wave to the Southeast U.S. and into Virginia is going to steer TD#3 to the west-northwest over the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico into this weekend. Tropical Storm force winds have been reported in the southeastern Bahamas, and should affect the rest of the Bahama Islands through Friday. South Florida will be impacted by TD#3 starting Friday with several inches of rainfall and gusty winds. As much as five to six inches of rain is possible in south Florida. Storm surge in the low-lying Bahamas and Florida Keys may raise water levels as much as two feet above ground level.

This map shows the blue highlighted locations now in a Tropical Storm Warning including south Florida. The yellow on the southeast Florida Atlantic coast is a Tropical Storm Watch.

The track provided here by the National Hurricane Center is in line with the morning's model forecast tracks I showed you in my previous blog posting. Tropical Depression #3 may be Tropical Storm Bonnie as it tracks over the Gulf oil spill region over the weekend.

Is Tropical Storm Bonnie Soon To Be Born?

The shower and storm activity that has been disorganized all week is finally getting its act together, and fast. You can see in this visible satellite image of the system over the Bahamas that there is better organization and growth. Observations from the Bahamas indicate the critical closed circulation is now present. The National Hurricane Center expects to issue either a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm notice at 11 a.m. EDT. They anticipate issuing Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for part of the Bahamas and southern Florida. Here are the morning forecast model tracks for this system:

Tropics Update Thursday Morning

A still disorganized area of showers and storms in the southeastern Bahamas has a good chance today to develop a center of circulation and strengthen into a Tropical Depression or possibly Tropical Storm Bonnie. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly through the system to investigate it this afternoon. Regardless of whether or not this organization can occur, this complex will track over the Bahamas and the southern half of Florida into the end of this week, bringing heavy showers and gusty winds. What's left of this system will then enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico, near where crews are working to clean up the Gulf oil spill. Even if this system isn't strong enough to be a Depression or a Storm, it will still bring choppy seas and rain, which is enough to disrupt clean-up efforts by the end of the week into the weekend.

Another tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico west of the Yucatan Peninsula is also being monitored for some strengthening as it heads toward Mexico.

This one shouldn't impact the U.S., but will bring heavy rain to central Mexico.