Storm Potential Next Week

Everyone on the blog is already talking about it, so I may as well address the potential storm for next Tuesday into Wednesday. Data is still inconsistent with this thing. Even the most reliable computer forecast has been dramatically shifting the track northward each day. With that said, let's talk about what is consistent with the data: a low will develop near the Gulf Coast on Monday night and head to the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday.


As with any storm moving in from the south - track is everything! Here are the possible scenarios:

1) This storm hugs the coastline and we see mainly rain with possibly some wet snow or sleet farther inland.

2) The storm stays far enough off the coast that we will see mostly snow.

3) The storm tracks too far south and we see nothing.


Beyond the track, another key to the forecast will be temperatures at the surface and mid levels. If the storm's core tracks nearby, it will pull in air off the coast where water temperatures are near 40 degrees. This will increase our chances for wet snow and rain. It also could mean some warmer air nudging in at the mid levels, which would increase our chances for sleet.

One other key to the forecast will be the track of the large storm system that is currently spinning over New England. It will have a dramatic impact on the track of next week's potential storm.

These are things we will be watching over the next few days as this situation slowly evolves. More updates will be coming soon!

Windy Thursday & Friday

Winds are picking up Thursday in Central Virginia as a strengthening low pressure center east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline tracks northward into New England. While this low remains in our vicinity, winds are expected to remain gusty in the 25-35 mph range in Central Virginia. There is a High Wind Watch for north-central and west-central Virginia, where wind gusts may be as strong as 60 mph. These types of strong wind gusts could certainly cause power outages in those locations. In Southwest Virginia (to the west of the Wind Advisory), that is a High Wind Warning, for similar conditions.

Precip Ends, Dry Air Moves In

Drier air has been moving into Central Virginia through the morning hours, ending our precipitation chances in Central Virginia. In fact, cloud-cover has rapidly been moving out of the area as well, with mostly sunny skies now!

The strong coastal low to our east continues to track northward away from the Commonwealth, overspreading heavy snow for much of New England this morning through Friday. Totals of a foot or more are expected in parts of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York. Winds will also be strong in New England, creating blowing snow and near-whiteout conditions at times. If you have travel plans through the region, you can go to 511 to check the roads, or go here to get the latest on airports.

Weather Update 8 a.m.

All Winter Weather Advisories in our area have been allowed to expire early, as precipitation winds down in Central Virginia. Only a few light rain/snow showers are in the eastern Peninsulas at this time, with light flurries in southwest Virginia south of Roanoke. Most of the snow in our region is now either to the northeast from Delaware to New England, or to our south in Central North Carolina. Drier air continues to move into Central Virginia, limiting our precipitation chances.

Weather Update 4 a.m.

The Winter Weather Advisory for much of Central Virginia has been allowed to expire as the rain and snow showers in Central Virginia overnight are winding down. Sprinkles and drizzle may linger early this morning in the area, but any significant precipitation is over. Fortunately overnight, temperatures remained above freezing, which meant any of the snow that did fall in spots was unable to stick to the roads, or even to the grass in many cases. This makes for a wet morning, but not an icy one. A few light snow showers are possible in the area this morning, but no accumulation is expected.
Winds are expected to pick up later this morning from the Northwest as a strengthening low off the coast of North Carolina tracks northward today. Winds will be in the 20-30 mph range, with higher gusts, especially closer to the Chesapeake Bay, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Winds will remain gusty Friday as well.