Fiona Joins Earl in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Fiona was named this afternoon as winds reached 40 mph, and Hurricane Earl has strengthened to a category 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. The forecast track for Earl has shifted farther west, resulting in a greater threat to the east coast. The forecast track for Fiona is shown above. Go to our website at http://www.wtvr.com/weather to access the CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker to track both of these storms.

Earl a Major Hurricane: Cat 3

Hurricane Earl has reached major hurricane status at Category 3 strength. The eye is now clearly visible in satellite imagery.

Maximum sustained winds are up to 120 mph, after starting off this morning at 105 mph. This indicates a period of rapid intensification is underway, thus, the increasingly evident eye. A sequence of eye-wall development and weakening is likely over the next several days, which will lead to some fluctuation of intensity. However, Earl is moving through a low-shear, warm surface water environment which will keep the hurricane very strong. Category 4 strength appears feasible, if not likely, sometime within the next 24 to 48 hours. The track of Earl will still curve precariously close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Virginia coastline late Thursday into early Friday.

As a result, we expect extremely high surf and rip tides with potential coastal flooding as Earl passes by. However, we are still several days away from the system's pass, and the track could shift significantly by that time. The model tracks shown above are counting on the approach of a trough and surface cold front late Thursday and Friday to the East Coast from the west across the U.S. That means Earl would be steered to the northeast away from a direct landfall as the trough advances eastward. But if this trough slows or weakens, Earl would be able to keep moving west, likely as a major hurricane. We will continue to provide updates on the air and online throughout the day, every day this week! For your reference, here is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

Earl Update Monday Morning

Hurricane Earl is a Category Two storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph as of early Monday morning. Earl will intensify over the next day into a major hurricane of at least Category Three strength, potentially as strong as a Cat 4.

The track of Earl appears to be very close to the Outer Banks and Virginia's coast on Thursday and Friday. The center of Earl may pass within 180 miles of Virginia Beach, and only 100 miles of Hatteras in the Outer Banks.

Even if our region receives only a glancing blow of the system, there should be rough surf and rip tides Wednesday through Friday along the Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach and Sandbridge, and all along the Outer Banks. If you have beach plans later this week anywhere in this region, be aware of this threat when swimming in the ocean! I also encourage you to stay tuned this week for the latest on the track of Earl, as any shift to the west would mean more significant impacts along the coast. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out from the center of the storm 175 miles, which could be felt at the beach later Thursday and early Friday. What could turn the system away from us Friday? An approaching cold front from the west. However, if this front slows or weakens, that keeps the door open for Earl to track farther west, closer to North Carolina and Virginia as a major hurricane.