Where's The Snow?

Although we saw some wintry weather earlier this week, this snow season has been lackluster to say the least. The snow total so far for Richmond? A trace. That's it!

Here is a graph that depicts the chance for an accumulating snow through the year (provided by the National Weather Service). I roughly drew a normalized curve (solid blue line) to help see the trend.



From the graph, you can see that the best chances for an accumulating snow is in late January and early February.

I'm still expecting the chance for rain changing to some snow Monday night and into Tuesday. After that, it looks like we are headed towards a mild stretch of weather. So it makes you wonder...is this it?

The winter is still young, so I'm certain that we will have at least a couple more shots for some snow in late February and into early March. So be patient all you snow lovers!

Looking Ahead

I've talked about this in previous blog entries, but our weather pattern is undergoing some changes. I'm still expecting a nice stretch of mild weather to settle into the area around the second week of February.



In between now and then, we will see some unsettled weather...as evidenced by next week's potential storm and subsequent cold blast. I will be tracking this upcoming storm and will have updates through the weekend with the very latest data. See you then!

Aaron

Light Fog & Frost Friday Morning

Some spots along I-95 and to the East toward the Chesapeake Bay have a little bit of fog this Friday morning. It is not particularly dense, with visibilities staying better than a half mile in most places. That moisture has also allowed frost to form on most cars this morning, so be sure to allow enough time to defrost those vehicles before your morning commute.
--Carrie--

A Long, Long Time Ago...

...sixty-nine years to be exact. On this date in 1940, Richmond hit its all time record low of -12. Pending any dramatic change in the weather pattern, I don't see that happening this winter!

Black Ice Thursday Morning

Skies are clear Thursday morning behind the cold front that moved through last night. Temperatures have been able to fall to or below freezing in much of the state, and with plenty of roads still damp with some water puddles, I expect this to freeze and create black ice on many roads. Use extra caution during your morning commute, as there will be plenty of slick spots. Temperatures will rise back above freezing by mid-morning in Southern and Central Virginia, melting the black ice, but it may take until late-morning for all the black ice to melt in Northwest and North-central Virginia.
--Carrie--

Quiet Tonight

The line of showers has now moved way out into the Atlantic Ocean, so the rest of tonight will be dry. On average, we picked up an additional .25 to .5" with this last batch of rainfall. Temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, so there could be isolated spots of black ice for tomorrow morning...especially on bridges and overpasses.

Showers Moving Out

Rain has now left the metro Richmond area and the rest of this evening will be dry. A few showers linger in the Northern Neck, Middle Peninsula, and farther south near the state line along I-95. These showers will diminish in the next hour and skies will become partly cloudy for the rest of tonight.

Rain Moving Across The Area

Rain showers have now entered into the area and will eventually exit between 7 and 10 this evening. By the time colder air wraps into this system, most of the precipitation will be gone, so the chances for any more wintry weather remains very slim.

Wet and Warmer Wednesday Afternoon

The great thaw is well in progress in Virginia mid-day Wednesday, with winds turning to the South and ushering in much warmer temperatures to the state. By later this afternoon, the entire state will be back into the 40's, 50's, and 60's (from North to South). Fog will gradually decrease from South to North this afternoon, improving visibilities. At Noon, though, visibilities from Richmond north to on I-95 are still at a quarter of a mile.

Another round of rain will move into Western Virginia through the afternoon, and sweep through the state by this evening. I expect the trailing edge of the rain to clear far Southeast Virginia by Midnight.

The latest data still indicates a slight chance for flurries in Central Virginia Friday, as another low pressure system tracks to our North and brings a reinforcing shot of colder air to the region. We are also monitoring a stronger storm system that may impact Virginia and much of the Eastern U.S. Tuesday. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Carrie--

Wednesday Morning Update 8:41AM

Temperatures are starting to rise in the Richmond area above freezing at this time. Drizzle continues in much of the region, but another round of rain is expected to move from Northwest to Southeast in the state this afternoon and evening.

Fog is blanketing much of Central Virginia as well, with visibilities being reduced to a quarter mile in Richmond. Fog may be dense in spots, so remember to keep your headlights on low beams and slow down.



Here is a picture submitted by a viewer in Stony Creek:

Wednesday Morning Update 5:35AM

Freezing drizzle continues in the Metro Richmond area this morning, which is adding to the thin glaze of ice on primarily elevated surfaces like trees. As you go outside early this morning, you will notice some of those tree limbs starting to sag under the weight of that glaze of ice. Already compromised or previously damaged tree limbs are breaking, and some of these are ending up in roadways. Please be on the lookout for limbs in the roads early this morning. Also, bridges and overpasses have that same glaze of ice on them, with patchy black ice on other roads (primarily secondary streets).

This picture was taken outside of the CBS 6 studio by John Ives, showing the glaze of ice accumlated on tree limbs this morning.

The good news is that temperatures are expected to rise above freezing in Richmond shortly after sunrise, which will end the freezing drizzle and begin the melting process. Freezing rain will continue this morning, though, in Western and Northern Virginia until Noon, when the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories will expire. By this afternoon, temperatures will be in the 50's in much of Central Virginia as warmer air surges Northward with those Southerly winds.

--Carrie--

Overnight Weather Update

Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will continue through the pre-dawn hours across central Virginia, especially north of I-64 and west of I-95. The winter weather advisory has been extended until 6 AM to account for the likelihood of an additional thin glaze of ice, mainly affecting secondary roads. Temperatures area wide are still expected to rapidly warm throughout the day Wednesday.

Zach

Evening Winter Weather Update

As of 6:30 PM, temperatures in the Richmond metro area were still a degree or two on either side of 32 degrees, with light precipitation showing up on Doppler Max 6. While primary roads will remain wet, secondary roads (those numbered 700 and higher) will likely be slick for several more hours tonight. The winter weather advisory for Hanover, Goochland, Louisa, fluvanna, and Caroline counties has been extended until midnight tonight. In addition, the threat for heavy icing has prompted a winter storm warning for Buckingham and Appomattox counties through tomorrow morning. A tenth to a quarter of an inch of additional ice accumulation will be possible in these areas.

Zach

Winter Weather Update

Temperatures continue to hover very close to freezing in the metro area, with an official 3 PM temperature of 32 degrees at RIC. Most of the roads are in good shape, but slick spots will still be possible for a few more hours. I expect temperatures to gradually become warmer overnight, with a sunrise temp on Wednesday of 38 degrees in Richmond. I'll have another update later this afternoon.

Zach

Tuesday Update 12:50PM

Temperatures are hovering around freezing in Metro Richmond at this time, with freezing rain falling in some spots still. Temperatures will gradually all rise above the freezing mark through the afternoon, meaning all precipitation from Richmond and south will be just rain by tonight. North of Richmond to Hanover, there will continue to be a winter mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain this afternoon. The northern third of the state will continue to have snow this afternoon, accumulating up to 1" to 3".

Until temperatures rise above freezing at any particular location, rain will freeze on contact with the surface, adding to the glaze of ice already covering parts of Central Virginia. This will continue to mean dangerous traveling conditions until the ice begins to melt later this afternoon.

--Carrie--

Winter Weather Pictures From Viewers

Here is a sampling of some of the great winter weather pictures we are receiving from viewers at CBS 6.

Main Street Warsaw, Virginia
Nicky Kilmon

Louisa, VA

Louisa County, VA

Sherry Palmer

Sandston, VA
Joanie Carter

Tuesday Morning Update 8:20AM

A snow and sleet mix is currently falling in Richmond, including at CBS 6 on West Broad Street. The leading edge of the precipitation is moving into southeast parts of the Metro at this time. As this line passes your location, you can expect precipitation starting as rain, then a brief period of freezing rain with some ice accumulation as your temperature falls to freezing, becoming sleet and then snow. There will still be some sleet and rain mixed in with the snow at times this morning in the Richmond area. The previously described boundaries in the state for precipitation type today still hold true (see previous blog postings).
--Carrie--

Tuesday Morning Update 7AM

At 7 a.m. Tuesday morning, the temperature in Richmond (33 degrees at the airport) is hovering around the freezing mark, and the leading edge of precipitation is from Hanover to Goochland to Lynchburg. In North-central and Northwest Virginia, the precipitation is falling as sleet and snow. From around Lynchburg and south, the precipitation is falling as rain primarily. I expect a snow/sleet/rain mix to move into the Richmond metro area within the hour. Whatever rain falls to surfaces that are at or below freezing, will freeze on contact. This will lead to some ice accumulation. The precipitation will be light at first, but gradually become moderate through the morning hours as the leading edge pushes into Southeast Virginia.
--Carrie--

Tuesday Morning Update 6 AM

The leading edge of the precipitation is moving into North-central and Western parts of Virginia this morning, with flurries and light snow already falling in those regions. I expect this line to be moving into the Metro Richmond area after 7 a.m. this morning, and overspread all of Southeast Virginia by Noon. At this time, temperatures are hovering just above the freezing mark in the Richmond Metro, staying above freezing from Petersburg and south, and already below freezing from Fredericksburg to Charlottesville. The longer temperatures remain at or below freezing this morning, the greater potential for ice and snow accumulation in Central Virginia. This does mean a glaze of ice is possible into early this afternoon in the Richmond area as long as temperatures remain at or below freezing.

At this time, I expect a snow/rain mix north of a line from Williamsburg to Petersburg to Leesville, with all rain south of that line. From Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and north, I expect up to 1” to 3” of snow accumulation today and tonight. In the snow/rain mix area, I expect a trace up to an inch of snow accumulation by this afternoon, when the precipitation will turn over to all rain as temperatures rise back above freezing. The freezing line will shift into Northern Virginia by tonight, with mostly rain in much of Central Virginia this afternoon. Rain will continue overnight into Wednesday in Central Virginia, and end from Northwest to Southeast Wednesday night.

Check back often for updates this morning.
--Carrie--

Overnight Update

The latest model data is suggesting that surface temperatures in central Virginia could stay at or below freezing a little longer on Tuesday. This would increase the threat and duration of slick and hazardous road conditions in central Virginia. Meteorologist Carrie Rose will be in the CBS 6 Storm Center in just a few hours with the latest on this developing winter weather event.

Zach

Winter Weather Advisory Expanded

The winter weather advisory for Tuesday has been expanded to cover more of central Virginia. A winter weather advisory is now in effect from 6 AM to 4 PM Tuesday for Fluvanna, Cumberland, Buckingham, Appomattox, Hanover, Goochland, Powhatan, Louisa, and Caroline counties. Accumulations of 1-2" of snow and sleet will be possible early Tuesday, before the precipitation transitions to rain.

Zach

Winter Weather Update

As of 6 PM, winter weather advisories were in effect for northern and western sections of Virginia, in the anticipation of a mix of winter precipitation on Tuesday. There are no advisories, watches, or warnings for the Richmond metro area. Areas in and around Richmond will see a period of snow early Tuesday, transitioning to rain by early afternoon. We will have a narrow window (roughly 7 AM to 10 AM) where surface temperatures are at or just below freezing after the snow begins. A light accumulation of snow will be possible early on, but with temperatures rising above freezing by 10 AM, no additional accumulation is expected. A more significant accumulation of ice and snow will be possible farther north and west. I'll have another update later tonight when the new upper-air data becomes available. For an early look at how things are developing, tune in to CBS 6 tomorrow morning at 4:30 AM. Meteorologist Carrie Rose will have the latest weather information in our special early newscast.

Zach

Believe Your Eyes, Richmond, Those Are Flurries!

As of 10:18 a.m. Monday, light snow flurries continue to move through much of Metro Richmond, as has been the case in other parts of Central Virginia this morning. Of course, it is not amounting to much of anything on the ground, but it makes for a lovely sight while it is falling. The flurries are along and north of I-64 at this time, and essentially along and east of I-95. Fredericksburg and into the Northern Neck are getting the light snow flurries, and up in D.C. over the past couple of hours as well. This activity is ending, though, from West to East this morning.

Few Flurries Monday Morning

A few flurries are making it to the surface Monday morning in Central Virginia, but most of the light precipitation moving through the state is not reaching the ground because of dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, flurries have occurred this morning from Lynchburg, to Farmville, to Richmond, to Hanover, and up to D.C. This activity is very light, and will not lead to any significant accumulations in Central Virginia. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Monday, with light Easterly winds.

A strong storm system is developing in the South-Central U.S. today, and will leave a swath of Winter Weather from Texas to Virginia and into the Northeast through Wednesday. Winter Watches and Warnings are in effect for this region, with a Winter Storm Watch for Western and far North-Central Virginia. This storm system is still developing early Monday morning, so these forecast snow totals Tuesday-Wednesday for Virginia are preliminary.

As for snowfall accumulations, I expect mostly trace amounts of snow along a line from Tappahannock to Richmond to Lynchburg. Along and north of a line from D.C. to Staunton, and in the mountains of western Virginia, up to 3” of snow is possible by the end of Wednesday, but most places in that region will have 2" or less.

Also, some icing is likely along that freezing line, as it shifts from Central into Northern Virginia Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to slick and icy roads and bridges until temperatures rise above freezing in Central Virginia.

The freezing line is going to be the deal-breaker for who sees snow and who does not! At this time, I expect the freezing line to be along a line from Tappahannock to Richmond to Farmville by Noon Tuesday, becoming all rain along and South of this line through Tuesday afternoon. The rain/snow line will continue to shift Northward toward Fredericksburg to Charlottesville overnight, with rain South of that line. By Wednesday morning, snow will be confined to West, Northwest, and North-Central Virginia. Wednesday afternoon, the cold front associated with this system will sweep through the region. Any lingering rainfall will transition back over to a wintry mix before ending Wednesday night in Central Virginia.

The next several days still have many factors that could change and alter the above forecast. We will post updates often, so stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Carrie--

Flurries in Hopewell

I just got a call from a viewer in Hopewell who says there are flurries falling from the sky. A stray flake or two will be possible tonight, but most areas should remain dry despite the cloud cover.

A better chance for wintry weather will arrive on Tuesday. I just got done looking at the latest data, and it still looks like it will be cold enough to support a wet snow or even some sleet (ice pellets) early in the day Tuesday. Temperatures should warm up in the afternoon so that most precip will change over to a cold rain, which will persist on-and-off through Wednesday.

Right now it is too early to speculate on snow accumulations. There are still too many uncertainties in this forecast to start pinpointing specific amounts. Meteorologist Carrie Rose and Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel will be in here tomorrow with more updates, so be sure to check back often!

Weather Pattern In Transition

Thanks to the Arctic plunge we experienced for the end of this month, the average temperature for January will end up being below normal. However, we are experiencing a major shift in the weather pattern and changes are headed this way. Right now the jet stream is rather flat, which always makes for a challenging forecast! In fact, we could see a wintry mix by Tuesday of this upcoming workweek (another update for this will come in the evening).



Between February 4-6, the transition will be complete and there is a good chance that we will see a long stretch of temperatures that are above average, which is typical for a La Nina weather pattern.



This is far into the future, so I will continue to track it and have more updates in the coming weeks.

Mild Start To Saturday

Temperatures are still hovering in the lower 50s this morning. Doppler Max 6 is detecting some isolated light rain showers in the area, but the air is so dry that the majority of this is evaporating before it hits the ground. We will have a chance for sprinkles or a brief light shower for the next couple hours, then the rest of today will be dry.

A Fine End to the Work Week

Friday will be a beautiful day in central Virginia with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. A strong cold front will move through the area on Saturday, returning temperatures to below-normal levels by Sunday. Next week continues to look interesting, with a chance for freezing rain Tuesday, transitioning to a cold rain on Wednesday. Details on the setup for next week will change over the next few days, and I'll continue to post updates here on the blog. Enjoy the sun and warmth Friday, it will be the warmest day we see in at least a week!

Zach

Sunny, Dry Weather To End Week

Mostly sunny skies, dry air, and a brief warm-up will end the week, with highs reaching the 50's in Central Virginia Friday. A cold front will move through the region Saturday afternoon, turning winds back to the North and ushering in another shove of cold air. I do think precipitation chances with this front are very low for Central Virginia, and will merely bring partly cloudy skies through the day, becoming mostly clear by Saturday night behind the front.

We may enter a pattern early next week conducive for precipitation in the state, some of which may bring winter weather. We will keep you posted as this setup develops.

--Carrie

Teens Wednesday Morning, But Warming Trend Into Friday

Temperatures have fallen into the teens in nearly all of Central Virginia Wednesday morning, with cold and dry air in place. Skies cleared overnight as the snowstorm to our south exited into the Atlantic, and winds weakened as well, which allowed for excellent overnight cooling conditions. Cold air has invaded much of the Deep South as well, with temperatures this morning in the 20's as far South as North Florida. Southern parts of Virginia had up to 2" of snow Tuesday, with up to 7" of snow in North Carolina. Roads are hazardous Wednesday morning in North Carolina, as slush from snow yesterday froze overnight into black ice on many roadways. Use caution if you must travel into North Carolina this morning. Some secondary roads in Southern Virginia are also experiencing black ice this morning where light snow fell Tuesday.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the rest of this week, reaching highs in the low 50's by Friday. Colder air will return by the beginning of next week, with chances for precipitation in the state increasing into mid-week.

--Carrie

A Clear and Cold Night Ahead

At 3 PM Tuesday afternoon, only a few light snow showers remained across far southeast Virginia. Skies will gradually clear from west to east this afternoon and evening, setting central Virginia up for a cold night. Temperatures will fall into the teens area wide by Wednesday morning. Another round of winter weather will be possible this weekend, and I'll have the details tonight on CBS 6 at 5, 5:30, 6 and 11.

Zach

Snow Pictures from South-Central VA

CBS 6 Senior Reporter Wayne Covil captured these pictures as he explored South-central Virginia Tuesday morning, looking for which cities were snow-covered and where snow may have been causing trouble on the roads. Wayne reported safe travel on roads, which had been treated before the snow began falling overnight. The farthest North along I-95 that Wayne found snow-dusted ground was six miles North of Stony Creek.

I-95 North and Southbound lanes





Greensville County

Tuesday Morning Update 10AM

Very light snow continues to move northeastward into South-central Virginia Tuesday morning. However, it is struggling to make it north of the Stony Creek area, and I expect that trend to continue today. I am lowering expected snow totals to just a dusting from the Petersburg area south toward Stony Creek. Up to an inch is possible before snow finishes falling at Emporia, but a couple inches are possible the farther southeast in the state you go near North Carolina. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect until 6 p.m. for far Southern Virginia, but I still think only far Southeast parts of the state may receive a couple inches of snow.

We will keep you posted.
--Carrie

Parts of South-Central VA snow-covered Tues. morning

Here are pictures sent in from Stony Creek, VA, which is about halfway between Petersburg and Emporia on I-95 in South-central Virginia. Thank you to Bob & Virginia Cherry for these shots!

This is the snowfall that accumulated from the light snow overnight. I expect another round of snowfall to move through South-central Virginia this morning and early afternoon, and this precipitation is already making a push northeastward into the state from North Carolina at 8:15 a.m. Tuesday. Snowfall is being reported from Danville to Emporia, and across other parts of South-central Virginia. Check back often for updates and new pictures!

--Carrie

More Snow Pictures

These are more pictures submitted by CBS 6 viewer Ed Jones in Rawlings, VA. This was at 7:15 a.m. Tuesday of the field and pond at Ed's home. Thanks, Ed! Viewers may submit their snow pictures to me at crose@wtvr.com --Carrie

Tuesday Morning Update 6:50AM

Most of Central and Southeast Virginia is getting a break from the light snowfall at this time, but more snowfall will be moving northeast into the state through the rest of this morning. Light snow is still falling from Danville east to I-85 and north toward Nottoway and Dinwiddie Counties. I expect snowfall to spread farther north and east by 9 a.m., with flurries and light snow in the Richmond area through mid-day. I still expect highest snowfall accumulations to remain in far South-central and Southeast Virginia.

Be aware that some areas of black ice and other slick spots may form on the roads today, and secondary streets may remain snow-covered. Use caution when traveling.

--Carrie

Viewer Snow Pictures from Rawlings, VA

CBS 6 viewer Ed Jones sent us this picture taken outside his front porch in Rawlings, VA, which is just west of I-85 south of McKenney in Brunswick County. Ed took this photo at 4:45 a.m. Tuesday.

Light snow is still being reported in parts of Southern and Central Virginia at 5:30 a.m., but I expect most of the snow to move into the region after 8 a.m. and continue through early afternoon.

Ed sent some new pictures, which he says were taken "at 5:35AM out near my mailbox and the road which goes by it on Lew Jones Road in Rawlings, and they show the tracks left from my morning paper carrier and the snow already accumulating on the road." Thanks, Ed, for your photos and report!

--Carrie

Tuesday Morning Update 4:45AM

Dew points have dropped significantly from Petersburg north toward Richmond, indicating drier air near the surface. Snow falling into this drier air is evaporating before it can reach the surface. A good example is at Petersburg, where light snow was falling from 1:40-2:20 a.m., but then the dew point temperature dropped from 25 degrees to 16 degrees in an hour and a half. It took a while for snow falling into this drier air to overcome and make it to the surface again without evaporating first, and light snow is now being reported again in Petersburg at 4:20 a.m. I expect this trend to continue in Southern and Central Virginia early Tuesday morning, as snow falling into the drier environment must "re-moisten" the lower levels and allow snow to make it to the surface.

Snow currently just south of the border will continue to expand northeastward into Virginia by mid-morning. I expect most of Central and South-central Virginia's snow to fall from mid-morning through early this afternoon. By late this afternoon, I expect snow to only be falling in Southeast Virginia, south of a line from Emporia to Smithfield. Some flurries may linger near this line through late afternoon, but will not significantly add to totals.

--Carrie

Tuesday Morning Update 3:30AM

Light snow continues to move into the southern half of Virginia early Tuesday morning, with light snow being reported from Petersburg to Farmville and south into North Carolina. At 3 a.m., light snow was falling at Emporia, Danville, Norfolk, Lynchburg, and Blacksburg. Light snow was also falling over the Richmond metro area, but most is evaporating before it reaches the ground at this time.

This light snowfall will continue to spread northeastward into Southern and Central Virginia Tuesday morning, with the highest accumulations of 3" to 5" expected south of a line from Emporia to Smithfield. South of a line from South Hill to Petersburg to Melfa, I expect 2" to 3" snow accumulation by the end of Tuesday. From Danville, to Farmville, to the Richmond metro, to the Northern Neck and points south, I expect only light accumulations up to 1" to 2" at most. North of these locations, only a dusting is possible.

I will post updates here through the morning!
--Carrie

Broad Area of Light Snow Moving into Southern VA

At 11:30 PM Monday, Doppler Max 6 indicated a broad area of light snow moving north-northeast through southern Virginia. Much of this precipitation was evaporating before reaching the ground, but portions of southwest Sussex county, Greensville county, Brunswick county, and Mecklenburg county are likely beginning to see the snow reach the ground. The winter weather advisory and winter storm warning remain as they were earlier in the evening, with the greatest snowfall expected across southeast Virginia. The Richmond metro area should see at dusting to 1" of total snowfall, with greater amounts south and east. Meteorologist Carrie Rose will be in the CBS 6 Storm Center early tomorrow with the very latest.

Zach

Winter Storm to Affect Parts of the Area Tuesday

A winter weather advisory has been issued for much of southern and a small part of central Virginia, and a winter storm warning has been issued for a small part of southern and all of southeast Virginia.

A broad upper trough will continue to dig southward across the Southeast U.S., driving another surge of cold air into Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. At the same time, a surface low will develop in North Carolina and track across the eastern part of the state and just off the Virginia coast. Areas along and just north of the track of the low will see the greatest snowfall amounts, with 4-6 inches possible in north-central and northeast North Carolina. Southern and southeastern Virginia will see snowfall totals in the 2-4” range, with isolated amounts in southeast Virginia exceeding 4”. I expect Richmond to see periods of light snow, with total accumulations of less than 1”. The track of the surface low is critical as to where the heaviest snow will fall, and slight adjustments to the track could easily occur. I’ll have another update later tonight when new data is available regarding the exact track and intensity of the storm.

Zach

Monday Noon Update

Periods of light snow and flurries are expected Monday afternoon in Central Virginia. New light precipitation is forming in western Virginia at Noon, and is moving east toward I-95. Temperatures are above freezing in Central Virginia, so any snow that does fall is not expected to stick on the ground for long before melting. Northwest and far North-Central Virginia may see snow accumulations this afternoon and evening, along and north of Charlottesville and Fredericksburg. There is a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for this part of the state into D.C. and Maryland, where a couple of inches of snow may accumulate, and roads may become slick and hazardous.

Visibilities are much-improved at Noon, as compared to this morning when clouds were as low as 100 feet above the ground, with fog and mist. Not much precipitation actually made it to the ground through the morning hours, though.

Snow shower chances continue into Tuesday for much of the state, but southern and southeastern Virginia have a chance for snowfall accumulation up to 4" in spots. In the Richmond metro area, once again only light snow is expected to fall, with about an inch of snow accumulation possible Tuesday. From South Hill to Williamsburg and points south, 2" to 4" of snow accumulation is possible by the end of Tuesday. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for far southeast Virginia, from east of Franklin to Suffolk, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach from late Monday night through Tuesday. Up to 5" of snow accumulation is possible in the Watch area.

Check back for updates!
--Carrie

Wintry Mix To The Southwest

A wintry mix continues to fall in the southwest corner of the state. It is breaking apart as it enters central VA, but we could see a stray snowflake or two overnight tonight. A better chance for flakes will arrive tomorrow afternoon as a fast moving storm passes the area.

The Big Chill

It's official - this morning was the coldest we have seen in nine years! Surprisingly, it didn't set a record, which is -1 set back in 1977. Here is a recap of the lows from this morning:

Dangerously Cold Friday Night

Friday night will be the coldest in nearly a decade (see previous blog postings for details) for much of Central Virginia, with lows plunging into the single digits and teens. The record low to beat January 17 in Richmond is minus one from 1977, and I do not think temperatures will fall quite that low. The coldest temperatures will be behind us after bottoming out Saturday early morning. However, temperatures will still be slightly below average levels for mid-January in Central Virginia.

In fact, the U.S. is currently split between two extremes right now. The West is unseasonably warm, while the East is unusually cold.

Here are some of the record lows set today in the Eastern half of the U.S.:
Caribou, ME -37
St Cloud, MN -34
Waterloo, IA -34 (all-time record low temp for January)
Spencer, IA -28
Montpelier, VT -26
Bangor, ME -25
Rockford, IL -25
Concord, NH -24
Peoria, IL -21
South Burlington, VT -21
Fort Wayne, IN -19
South Bend, IN -19
Detroit, MI -15
Hot Springs, AR 20

Alaska has been swinging between extreme cold and record warmth in the last week. Just a week ago, much of Alaska plunged to -30 to -40 degrees. One week later, temperatures soared into the 40s and 50s. Here are some of the record highs set today in Alaska:
Fort Greely, AK 50
Central, AK 48
Fairbanks, AK 42 (Fairbanks had a high of -34 degrees a week ago on Jan 11!)

Here are some of the record highs set today in the West:
Salinas, CA 84
Monterey, CA 78
Oakland, CA 72
Redmond, OR 62

The pattern in place across the U.S. that made for unusual warmth in the West coupled with bitter cold in the East will continue through the weekend. A storm system will approach Virginia Sunday, bringing a decent chance for light snow and flurries in the state Sunday night into early Monday.

--Carrie

Bitterly Cold Tonight

We are forecasting temperatures to drop to 7 degrees tonight. This will be the coldest night we have seen since January 28, 2000, when temps dropped to zero!

Wind Chill Advisory in Effect

Wind chill values of 0 to -10 will be possible across parts of western Virginia from the pre-dawn hours Friday through noon Friday. Wind chill values in central Virginia will range from 5 to 10 degrees above zero early Friday. The actual temperature will be the coldest early Saturday, with single digits likely across much of central Virginia.

Zach

The Cold Gets Colder

We are expecting low temperatures to drop into the teens on Friday morning, and then near 10 on Saturday morning. Although these will not be records, it has been awhile since we have seen air this cold. Here is a list of the coldest temperatures from the past five years.

12° on January 21, 2008
12° on February 6, 2007
14° on February 19, 2006
8° on January 24. 2005
11° on January 11, 2004

As you can see from this list, if we drop to 10 on Saturday, it will be the coldest morning since January 24, 2005!

Initial Arctic Front Arrives Wednesday Morning

The first of several waves of arctic air will move through central Virginia during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Dew point temperatures (a measure of moisture in the air) will drop from the upper 20s to the single digits as the extremely dry air mass settles into the state. Despite seeing some sunshine Wednesday, high temperatures in central Virginia will only reach the upper 30s. A stronger surge of arctic air is still expected to arrive Thursday with brisk northerly winds expected in the area. I am still expecting a period of nearly two full days in which the temperature never reaches the freezing point (melting point). The latest data continues to show a very dry air mass with a lack of focus for snow over the next 7 days. Our best chance is a slight one on Sunday. Have a great Wednesday!

Zach

Update on Two Tuesday Lows

Two low pressure systems are moving through the East Tuesday. The northern low is tracking through the Midwest into the Northeast, bringing strong winds and blowing snow to that region. The cold front associated with this storm will pass through Virginia Tuesday evening, bringing the first shot of colder air this week.

The southern low is moving through the coastal regions of the Deep South Tuesday morning, and will track northeast into the Atlantic Tuesday afternoon. Southeast Virginia will have a chance for rain from this coastal storm, which may mix with a few snowflakes this afternoon in Central Virginia. Precipitation chances, though, are very low the farther northwest you move away from the coast.

As Zach mentioned in his blog update Monday evening, there will be another shot of colder, Arctic air plunging into the region later this week. Another fast-moving low pressure system will usher in a second hit of that cold air to the Midwest Wednesday, reaching Central Virginia Thursday. This will likely be a dry system in Central Virginia, with only a slight chance for a few snowflakes. What we do expect, though, is much colder air. Lows will fall into the teens Friday and Saturday mornings.

--Carrie

Update on Looming Cold Snap

A look at the latest data coming in to the CBS 6 Storm Center shows no real change in the timing or extent of the upcoming cold snap. It continues to look like Friday will be the coldest afternoon, with a high of only 27 degrees. The low temperature by Saturday morning will likely be around 13 degrees. This cold pattern will be slow to change, keeping below normal temperatures in central Virginia through at least January 20th.

Zach

Seasonable Start to Week

Seasonable temperatures are expected for the beginning of the work week. An upper low will continue to track toward the Northeast, with two surface systems forming in response. The northern one will track through the Midwest into the Northeast on Tuesday. The southern one will form in the Deep South, and move into the Southeast Coast Tuesday. This means Virginia will be stuck in between the two lows (see forecast surface pattern image to the right, and notice the surface low to our North, and the surface low to our Southeast). Highest rain chances will be in the southeast quarter of the state Tuesday, as the southern low approaches. Highest snow chances will be in the far western Virginia mountains as the northern low approaches. Central Virginia has a chance for rain spreading north through Tuesday afternoon. Happy Monday!
--Carrie

Falling Temperatures Sunday

The rain has ended Sunday morning in Central Virginia, and at 6:30 a.m. the cold front had made it over the western Virginia mountains and was moving southeast. I expect the front to be through Central Virginia by mid-morning, turning winds to the Northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This will usher in cooler air, so temperatures will fall through the day with our daytime high being set Sunday morning instead of this afternoon. By this evening, most locations in Central Virginia will have dropped into the 30's. Skies will be partly cloudy Sunday and Monday. Two quick, slight chances for flurries will occur Tuesday and Thursday this week, before colder-than-average air settles into the region.
Enjoy your Sunday!
--Carrie

Saturday Evening Update

Light to moderate rainfall continues Saturday evening in Virginia as a large, fast-moving storm system approaches. The cold front associated with this low will sweep through Central Virginia Sunday morning shortly after sunrise, ending rain chances and leaving partly cloudy skies for the rest of Sunday. Winds will turn to the Northwest at 10 to 15 mph as the front passes. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be back at early January average levels before a cold high settles in later in the week. I expect many places to fall into the teens by the end of the week, with highs barely making the freezing mark in some spots.
--Carrie

Rain Likely Saturday Night

Rain is likely in Central Virginia beginning late Saturday night into early Sunday morning around sunrise. A fast-moving storm system will sweep a cold front through the state around sunrise Sunday, keeping our rain chances to the overnight period late Saturday and early Sunday. Winds will turn to the Northwest as this front passes, ushering in slightly cooler air to Central Virginia for the beginning of the week.

But even colder air is expected to settle into Central Virginia by the latter half of the work week. Another fast-moving storm system will bring a quick chance for snow flurries and showers in the state on Tuesday as it also brings a reinforcing shot of colder air.

Back to Saturday...I do expect mostly cloudy to overcast skies through the day and evening, but a few lucky parts of Virginia may see brief glimpses of the night sky in the couple hours after sunset. If you are one of the lucky few, you will see the "biggest" Full Moon of the year Saturday night. The Moon will rise in the East at sunset tonight, being the closest to the Earth in its elliptical orbit for 2009. This point is called "perigee," which is a term you may recall from Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel's blog posting in December, when we saw the biggest Full Moon of 2008. Check out his explanation from December 12th in the Blog Archive. But, since most of us will not be able to see this beautiful space show tonight, click here for shots from other locations around the world.

--Carrie

Weekend Rain Chances

A storm system currently moving through the Central U.S. will approach Central Virginia Saturday night. This will bring a decent chance for rain in much of the state Saturday night, continuing overnight into Sunday morning. I do not think this will be a total weekend washout, with most of the rain falling overnight and early Sunday morning. The rest of our weekend will have partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures for early January.

Our next chance for precipitation comes Tuesday, and conditions may be right for snowfall. We will be watching this storm as it tracks toward Virginia early next week. At this time, it does appear that colder air will overspread the region and stay for the middle and end of next week.

Have a great weekend!
--Carrie

Near-Average Temps Expected Friday

Seasonally cold and dry air continues to settle into central Virginia tonight under clear skies and light northwest winds. Temperatures will fall into the range of 25-28 degrees by early Friday morning. I expect full sunshine on Friday, but with a cold air mass in place, temperatures will only reach the mid 40s. Some high and very thin cloud cover will move into the area late in the day ahead of our next storm system. The latest data continues to suggest a decent chance of rain Saturday night into early Sunday. Have a great Friday!

Zach

Whipping Winds and Cold Trends

Winds were pretty gusty overnight in Central Virginia as the recent storm system finally exited to our northeast. Gusts in Richmond were up to 41 mph Wednesday night, and remained in the 20 to 30 mph range early Thursday morning. I expect the windy conditions to continue most of Thursday, with sustained winds in the 15 to 20 mph range this afternoon.

The good news about Thursday is the sun! We will have some cloud cover in Central Virginia, but we will see the sun for extended periods of time today. Snow showers stretch from Maine southward into the Appalachians Thursday morning on the backside of this exiting low pressure system, and some flurries may make it into Central Virginia this afternoon.

A deep trough has set up on the eastern half of the U.S., with a ridge in the west. This pattern will hold through the next week, which will mean colder temperatures for Virginia and also several chances for precipitation as storm systems track along the trough. At this time, it looks like much colder air will be settled in place over Virginia by the middle of next week, and stay here for many days.
--Carrie

Potent System Moving Through the Area

A strong area of low pressure is located over central Virginia this afternoon, and has resulted in a wide range of temperatures across the area. The warm front was draped across southeast Virginia, with temperatures in the mid 60s as far north as the airport (RIC). Looking at a few of our Skytracker cameras at 3 PM, the temperature was 50 in Ashland, 53 at the WTVR studios, and 64 in Petersburg. Wind and winter weather advisories have just been issued for the southwest and western sections of Virginia. The change from very low pressure in central Virginia, to relatively high pressure to our west, will create strong winds across central Virginia tonight. The current surface pressure of 29.19" is the lowest pressure reading I have seen in many years.

Zach

Wednesday Morning Update

Drizzle and fog are affecting much of Central Virginia early Wednesday morning, but light to moderate rainfall is headed our way through the morning and mid-day hours. Be careful driving today in the heavier downpours and on the slick, wet streets. Some light snow is mixed in with the rain this morning, and has been reported from Fredericksburg to Farmville. I will not be surprised to see some snowflakes mixed in with the rain in the Richmond Metro Area early this morning!

Temperatures continue to remain above freezing in Central Virginia, and a warm-up is expected today thanks to a warm front lifting to the north through the state. Temperatures early Wednesday morning are in the mid-60's just south of the North Carolina border, and are already warming into the 50's in far southeastern Virginia. After temperatures have held nearly steady in the 30's for much of Central Virginia the past 24 hours, highs this afternoon will recover into the 40's and 50's in most of the state.

Rain will taper off this afternoon and end by this evening, as the low finally tracks to the north and exits the region by early Thursday.

Another quick-moving system will pass through on Saturday, giving us a chance for a cold rain in Central Virginia.

--Carrie

Overnight Update

As of 10 PM, the temperature in Richmond was 36 degrees, and had been 36 degrees for the past 8 straight hours. A light northerly wind was keeping the temperature/moisture steady, but with winds slowly shifting to the east and southeast by morning, temperatures/moisture will increase slightly. Fog will be likely, as higher dew point air is advected into central Virginia from the Chesapeake. Temperatures will remain close to freezing across only the far northern and western parts of Virginia, with most advisories set to expire by around midnight. Periods of rain will continue across the entire area through early afternoon Wednesday, with the rain tapering off toward late afternoon.

Zach

Tuesday Morning Update

Light rain continues to move into Virginia Tuesday morning. Temperatures in Central Virginia this morning are safely above freezing, preventing an icing threat in the Richmond Metro area. However, Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for far western and northern parts of Virginia Tuesday, including Charlottesville, where temperatures are falling to freezing. Freezing rain and sleet are already occurring in the higher elevations, with light ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch expected, mainly on elevated surfaces. Some slick spots on roads can also be expected. Temperatures in the warned region will dip to around freezing by late morning and linger there into the afternoon.

Temperatures statewide are expected to gradually rise through Tuesday evening and overnight, ending the freezing rain threat by early Wednesday. However, heavy rainfall is expected by late Tuesday and overnight into early Wednesday in the southern half of Virginia, which may cause some flooding in prone areas.

This slow-moving storm system will exit the region Wednesday evening, but snow showers are possible on the backside of the low by Thursday in Central Virginia.

We will post updates online as needed, keeping you ahead of the storm.
--Carrie

Overnight Update

Cold and dry air will move very slowly into northern Virginia overnight, reaching a line just north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville by sunrise. Rain will overspread the area after midnight, with a few thunderstorms possible across the VA/NC border. Richmond will only see a cold rain from this event, with temperatures ranging from 36 to 40 degrees for the balance of the day. Meteorologist Carrie Rose will have the latest look at the weather situation at 5 AM on CBS 6, and here on the CBS 6 Storm Team Blog.

Zach

Freezing Rain Possible

A strong storm system will continue to track through the U.S., bringing freezing rain to the Southern Plains Monday. Light ice accumulation is occurring in North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, with a freezing rain/sleet mix farther northeast into Arkansas and Tennessee.

This precipitation hugs the strong cold front that stalled in the Deep South Sunday, after bringing 30 degree temperature drops to much of the Southern Plains. For example, Dallas, TX had a high of 84 degrees on Saturday, then fell to 37 degrees by Sunday night. Temperatures continued to fall and hover around freezing Monday, with freezing rain falling. Check out some of the record highs set Saturday, January 3, 2009 ahead of the cold front:

Dallas, TX: 84
Shreveport, LA: 81
Longview, TX: 81
Tyler, TX: 80
Texarkana, AR: 79
Tulsa, OK: 78
Little Rock, AR: 77
Fayetteville, AR: 74


Parts of Virginia are expected to receive some of this freezing rain and sleet over the next couple of days, starting early Tuesday. We will be watching this system closely because of the potential for icing in the mountains west, as well as in Central Virginia. Temperatures will be in the 30's much of Tuesday, so any locations that get at or below freezing at the surface, will have freezing rain. Sleet may also mix in with the rain at times.

This week does appear to be a sign of things to come, setting up the weather trend that will likely continue in the coming weeks. This setup could lead to several opportunities for winter weather in rapid succession. We'll be monitoring all of these changes closely and keep you ahead of the storm!

--Carrie

Big Changes Ahead

We are tracking a potent storm system headed this way for Tuesday and Wednesday. You can find all the details about this storm in my forecast discussion by clicking the "7 Day Outlook" link at the top of the page.



This storm will be approaching our area from the southwest. Afterwards, we will experience a major shift in our weather pattern where the jet stream will become highly amplified. There will be a bulge, or "ridge" developing along the west coast. Conversely, a pronounced dip, or "trough", will develop in the east coast.



In this type of scenario, the majority of our storms will move in from the northwest out of Canada...called "clippers". These type of storms will keep things cold for the middle of the month. They will also bring quick chances for wintry weather.



In other words, the mild and wet weather we experienced in December will be loooong gone. It will be interesting how long we will be stuck in this cold weather pattern. A mild La Nina developed during late December and could strengthen through this month. If this is the case, then it could be a dry and mild finish to this winter!

Temperatures Continue to Rise

Temperatures are now in the upper 30s for most of the area; however, Farmville and Emporia remain in the mid 30s at this hour. Black ice can still linger in shaded areas, so be sure to be careful for at least the next hour. Temperatures should reach the low 40s by 10 AM, so the threat for black ice will quickly diminish.

Patches Of Black Ice Still Possible

Light fog and dew still persists across the area. Luckily temperatures are rising thanks to the sunshine. However, it is still cold enough for black ice to develop on bridges and overpasses, or areas shaded from the sunlight. Conditions will rapidly improve in the next couple hours as temperatures continue to rise into the upper 30s.

Slick Spots To The South

Patches of dense fog have developed in parts of Dinwiddie, Brunswick and Greensville counties. In addition, temperatures in these areas are below freezing. These are perfect conditions for black ice to develop, especially on bridges and overpasses. If at all possible, postpone any travel in these areas until temperature rise above freezing later this morning.

Here is a map so you can track temperatures through the morning:

Quick Changes This Weekend

Saturday and Sunday will look very different as a storm system moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Saturday will be a mostly sunny and seasonal day, with highs in the low 50s and just a thin layer of high clouds. Cloud cover will thicken Saturday night into Sunday morning, and skies will be overcast by sunrise. Rain will become likely Sunday, holding temperatures in the upper 40s in most areas. Saturday will be the best outdoor day! Have a great weekend,

Zach

Wintry Mix Exiting The Area

The last batch of light rain and sleet is rapidly moving to the east, so we will quickly dry off for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Most areas around Richmond saw a mixture of sleet and rain, but farther north there were reports of some light snow. Here is a picture from John Wheeler, our weather watcher from Ruther Glen. He says that the precip this morning started as snow, then changed to sleet and rain.

Some Sleet In The Area

Some patches of sleet mixed with very light rain is now moving across the area.  Temperatures are well above freezing, so the ice pellets are melting on impact.  Most of the precipitation will end later this afternoon.

Light Rain, Or Mix Possible This Morning

The air is slowing saturating this morning, so we will eventually see isolated light rain showers develop across the region. Temperatures are still cold enough to support a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain. Skies will quickly clear by late afternoon and evening as the storm system quickly exits.

Clouds & Light Precip on Friday

A weak upper storm system will bring enough lift to the region to create extensive cloud cover and areas of light precipitation on Friday. Enough cold air will be in place initially to produce a few sleet pellets and snow flakes mixing with the light rain, especially north of I-64 and west of I-95. The storm system will move quickly to the east Friday night resulting in a dry start to the weekend.

Zach