Severe Potential Friday & Saturday

A lot of people have asked about the threat for severe thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday.

FRIDAY
Let's first tackle Friday's forecast. The front will reside out west, so we will see a strong SW wind which will bring heat and humidity back to the area.


This will make the atmosphere slightly unstable.


Jet stream winds will be strong enough to provide some speed shear (winds increasing with height). In addition, with surface winds from the southwest and jet stream winds from the west, there is some directional shear (twist) in the atmosphere.


With the front so far away on Friday, thunderstorms will remain very isolated, so we are not expecting widespread severe weather.

SATURDAY
The front will settle into the area on Saturday.


The atmosphere will also become unstable.


Just like on Friday, jet stream winds will be moderately strong from the west, so we will have both speed and directional shear.


Taking this all into account, the threat for severe storms looks higher for Saturday. The key to the forecast is sunshine. If we are stuck in thick cloud cover, then the severe potential will drop.

It's something we are watching very closely and will have more updates to come!

Chihuahua Blown Away By Wind Gust

This is one you have to read to believe! Click here for the story of how a 70 mph wind gust literally picked up and blew away a tiny chihuahua. Spoiler alert: this one has a happy ending!

Cold Front Ending Our Heat Wave

A cold front continues to move through Central Virginia early Wednesday morning. At 6 a.m., the front is moving into far southern and southeastern Virginia, with winds turning to the North and Northeast behind the front. Cloud-cover is also increasing from Northwest to Southeast, and widely scattered rain showers are expected to progress Southeast into the state today. Thunderstorm chances are very low this afternoon in Central Virginia.

High temperatures today will occur around lunchtime as cooler air seeps into the Commonwealth behind the front. Our recent stint of around 90-degree afternoons is over for now!
--Carrie

Check River Levels & Swim Safe (And Legal!)

After several folks had to be rescued Monday on the James River in Richmond (click here for the story), it's probably a good time to remind you that you have to wear a life jacket if you swim in the James and the water level is higher than five feet. The water level was above five feet when the river rescues occurred.

So before you go for a refreshing dip in any river in Virginia this Summer, stay safe (and legal) by checking the river levels before you go. Here is a link to river level measurement sites across the Commonwealth: http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?m=real&r=va&w=map
Mouse over any of the dots, and you'll see more information about that location on a river. Click on the dot for more detailed information, including graphs of water level rises and falls recently. Stay safe and check the levels before you swim!
--Carrie

Weekend Heat Wave

High pressure continues to sit just off the coast of Virginia and North Carolina, allowing a very warm air mass to linger in the region with highs this weekend in the 90's. The heat wave will continue Monday, and weaken only slightly Tuesday. Big changes will arrive Wednesday, though, ending the Summer-like stint of weather.

Here's a recap of the actual highs in Richmond this weekend, with the records to beat (which we didn't):

Saturday, April 25:
Actual High: 92 degrees
Record High: 96 (1925)

Sunday, April 26:
Actual High: 91 degrees
Record High: 96 (1960)

Monday, April 27:
Forecast High: 90 degrees
Record High: 96 (1990)

Here is a recap of some of the other high temperatures in Virginia this weekend:
Petersburg: Saturday 93 degrees; Sunday 93 degrees
Farmville: Saturday 93 degrees ; Sunday 93 degrees
Fredericksburg: Saturday 96 degrees; Sunday 95 degrees
Charlottesville: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 89 degrees
Emporia: Saturday 93 degrees; Sunday 93 degrees
South Hill: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 91 degrees
Danville: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 90 degrees
Williamsburg: Saturday 95 degrees; Sunday 93 degrees
West Point: Saturday 93 degrees; Sunday 93 degrees
Tappahannock: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 91 degrees
Lynchburg: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 91 degrees
Roanoke: Saturday 91 degrees; Sunday 89 degrees
Stafford: Saturday 95 degrees; Sunday 95 degrees
Norfolk: Saturday 90 degrees; Sunday 90 degrees
Virginia Beach: Saturday 90 degrees; Sunday 91 degrees
Hampton: Saturday 89 degrees; Sunday 89 degrees

Many of these highs were near records for late April.
--Carrie

New Feature On SPC Website

I just found a new feature on the Storm Prediction Center's website. Now you can plot any severe weather storm report (tornado, wind, hail) for any time period dating back to 1950!

For instance, here is a map I created that plots all the tornadoes across the United States last year:

You can also zoom in on the map...here is Virginia:

Try it yourself, here's the link!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php

Rain Totals From Loner Storm

One little storm dumped a lot of rain in Albemarle, Louisa and Orange counties this evening. The deep shades of blue indicate Doppler estimates of around 1.5" of rain!

Storm Continues To Trudge Eastward

The isolated thunderstorm has now moved into southern Orange and northern Louisa counties. It is still moving roughly E/NE at 10 mph. If it maintains its strength and track, it will move into Spotsylvania county in the next 45 minutes to an hour.

Isolated Storm In Albemarle County

A slow moving storm has popped up in north central Albemarle county and is drifting to the E/NE at around 10 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible until after sunset, especially north of I-64.

Storms Diminished Out West

Isolated thunderstorms out west completely diminished after sunset. The strongest storms this evening popped up just south of D.C. and at this hour continue to rumble into the Northern Chesapeake Bay. The rest of tonight will be quiet here in Central VA.

Storms Developing Out West

A few thunderstorms have developed along I-81 over the past couple hours. These storms are moving slowly to the E/NE at 15 to 20 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening, especially if you live west of I-95.

Here Comes The Heat!

High pressure will settle to the southwest of our area - prime positioning for a major warm up.



This weather pattern is typically seen during summertime. In addition, with summer-like weather comes the threat for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. We could see one or two pop up in the higher terrain to the west.

If you have outdoor plans in the mountains this weekend, you will want to keep a close eye to the sky!

It's Been A Long Time

Here is another tidbit to add to Carrie's stats in the previous post: September 14th was the last time we saw 90 degree weather in Central VA. That was 222 days ago!

First the Cold, then the Heat

Cool and dry air will settle in over the area tonight, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 30s in parts of NW VA. A frost advisory is in effect for Albemarle, Nelson, Greene, Orange, Madison, and Culpeper counties overnight, with the expectation of lows in the range of 33-36 degrees. The weekend pattern still features a large ridge of high pressure building over the SE US, resulting in highs in the upper 80s and a few low 90s.

Flirting With Summer This Weekend!

A sweet taste of Summer-like heat will settle into the Commonwealth this weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 80’s and low 90’s both Saturday and Sunday. The average high for late April in Richmond is about 71-73 degrees. However, this will not be unusual to have very warm weather in late April. In fact, here are the record highs set in the end of April:

April 24: 94 (1925)
April 25: 96 (1925)
April 26: 96 (1960)
April 27: 96 (1990)
April 28: 93 (1957)
April 29: 94 (1974)
April 30: 93 (1974)

So if Richmond reaches 89 or 90 degrees on Saturday and Sunday, that will still be a good five degrees shy of the standing record highs for those dates. It has also only been a couple of years since we have had such a warm April day like what we are expecting this weekend. The last time April temperatures broke 90 degrees was April 25, 2007 with a high of 90. Last year, the hottest April day was April 18, 2008 with a high of 87 degrees. And just in case you’re wondering, the hottest it has ever gotten in Richmond in April is 96 degrees. --Carrie

Few Lingering Showers Early Thursday AM

A batch of showers is moving through Eastern Virginia early Thursday morning, from the Northern Neck to northern Hampton Roads. These showers are very light, and will move out of the Commonwealth around sunrise.

Skies will become clear through the day, and a ridge of high pressure will begin to build into our region Friday. This will lead to an extended period of very warm temperatures, especially this weekend! Highs will climb into the upper 80's and low 90's across Central Virginia Saturday and Sunday.

Showers with Small Hail in Central VA

Widely scattered showers will once again develop this afternoon across central VA. Very cold mid-level temperatures will be favorable for the production of small hail with most of the activity. These showers will be heat-driven, and should dissipate shortly after dark. Wind gusts to around 40 mph will be possible with the heaviest showers.

Scattered Showers Possible Wednesday

Most of the rain is winding down in Central Virginia Wednesday morning, but scattered showers will still be possible in the Commonwealth today. Keep your umbrella handy in case you get a quick, light rain shower. Today will feel noticeably cooler and winds will remain up from the Northwest at 15-25 mph.
--Carrie

Storms Likely in Central VA this Afternoon

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of the area this afternoon, as surface heating and an approaching upper storm system has contributed to an unstable environment. Very cold mid-level temperatures will allow any storms that do develop to be very efficient hail producers. Drier air in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be sufficient for strong downburst winds. A few severe storms are likely this afternoon across central VA, but the overall coverage and severity will be less than what we experienced yesterday. Tornadoes are not expected in the area this afternoon and evening.

EF0 Tornado Confirmed Near Raynor to Smithfield

After a National Weather Service survey of damage from Monday's storms, only one tornado has been confirmed in the state, with any other damage from severe storms from strong, straight-line winds. The one tornado confirmed was an EF0 (winds estimated at 55-70mph with minor damage) and it occurred from 7:45 p.m. to 8 p.m. Monday near Raynor ENE to 1 mile NW of Smithfield. The tornado's track was 9 miles long, and 100 yards wide. Only minor damage occurred to homes and sheds in the path of this tornado.

Here is the official NWS report text:
"EF0 TORNADO TRACKED ALONG A NEARLY 9 MILE TRACK FROM NEAR RAYNOR EAST-NORTHEAST TO APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE NORTHWEST OF SMITHFIELD. DAMAGE ALONG THE PATH WAS INTERMITTENT...AND PRIMARILY CHARACTERIZED BY TREES TOPPED OUT OR BLOWN DOWN. THERE WAS ALSO MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES AND SHEDS IN THE FORM OF SHINGLES OFF ROOFS...AND SIDING PEELED AWAY. IN ADDITION...A FEW METAL ROOFS WERE DAMAGED."

The EF0 rating is based on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. You can learn more about the EF scale here.
--Carrie

Severe Weather Wrap-up

Severe thunderstorms affected much of Central Virginia Monday afternoon and early evening, with hail and wind being the primary threats, but there are a couple of possible tornado touchdowns that have yet to be confirmed.

Possible Tornadoes:
5 miles W of Smithfield
Isle of Wight near the town of Moonlight

Funnel cloud spotted in the Prince George area, but no touchdown.

Hail reports:
Golf-ball size: Fredericksburg, King George
Quarter-size: Farmville, Williamsburg, Crewe
Nickel-size: Hayes, Colonial Heights


(Full list of storm reports here)

There were numerous tornado warnings Monday, but large hail and straight-line wind damage were the main results of the severe thunderstorms that moved through central Virginia. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, but not on the scale of Monday's storms.

Here are some of the rain totals received storm total, from the first round of rain Monday morning, and then from the thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

Louisa 1.5"
Locust Grove 1.3"
Fredericksburg 1.3"
Charlottesville 1.2"
Lynchburg 1.1"
Reedville 1.1"
Newland 1.0"
Norfolk 0.9"
Williamsburg 0.8"
Richmond 0.7"
Petersburg 0.6"
Farmville 0.6"
Danville 0.5"
South Hill 0.5"
Emporia 0.2"

Tornado Watch Cancelled

A tornado watch is no longer in effect for any part of the state, as storms have moved east and have weakened over the past few hours. There were numerous tornado warnings today, and even a report of a funnel cloud over Prince George, but no confirmed tornadoes were reported. Large hail and straight-line wind damage accompanied many of the severe thunderstorms that moved through central Virginia today. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, but any activity we see will be lesser in both coverage and intensity.

Tornado Watch Until 10 PM

It's now official, Tornado Watch until 10 PM. Strong thunderstorms will develop in the next couple hours a race off to the east later this evening. We will track these storms and bring you the very latest through the afternoon and evening. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Watch Likely Soon

A Tornado Watch will probably be issued very soon. There is enough twist in the atmosphere to support rotation in some of the strongest storms this afternoon evening. We will be streaming live from now until the last severe storm moves out of the area.

Severe Storms Possible Monday Afternoon

The upper-level storm system spinning into the Ohio Valley region Monday will provide a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in much of the Commonwealth Monday afternoon and early evening. The green area in the map below indicates the region likely to have strong storms. Risks will include large hail and damaging winds, but there is also a threat for isolated tornadoes, particularly in the Eastern half of Virginia.

The severe risk will be enhanced this afternoon with any breaks in the clouds we get to allow extra daytime heating, whereas the risk will remain more marginal with overcast skies. However, several other factors will aid storm development, including a deepening upper-storm system, lower-level wind shear, ample lift and surface convergence, and instability developing in the afternoon.

We'll be watching this situation very closely today!
--Carrie

Severe Potential Tomorrow

Scattered showers will persist through tonight and into tomorrow morning. The air is too stable for thunderstorms to form during this time period.

Hit-and-miss showers will be possible on Monday with a chance for strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. During this time, the atmosphere will become unstable:


Also, there will be strong convergence at the surface:


Lastly, jet stream winds will also be strong enough to produce speed shear:


For these reasons, severe storms will be possible.


The big question heading into tomorrow: how unstable will the atmosphere become? If we see a little sunshine, then the chances for severe storms will increase. If we're socked in clouds and rain all day, then the chances decrease.

Where Are The Warm Days?

Today was a warm day, but would you believe that it was one of the warmest we've seen so far this year? Here is a list of the five warmest:

82 on March 8

82 on March 9

81 on April 10

80 on March 11

80 on Today

This spring has been definitely cool, in fact the results of our latest blog poll showed that the majority of people have yet to use their A/C this year!

I bring this up because the latest data is hinting at a major warm up headed this way in about a week (from April 25 through 30). I wouldn't be surprised if one of these days end up on top of the five warmest list from above!

Severe Storms In Texas

It was an active weather day yesterday in west TX where there were 11 tornado reports and 57 hail reports (some the size of baseballs!).



Isolated tornadoes and large hail will again be possible throughout Texas and into parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.



This same system will move into our area late Sunday and into Monday.

Cold This Morning

Petersburg and Emporia are the cold spots this morning with both areas reporting 32 degrees. Most other locations are in the mid 30s.

Frost Advisory Overnight

A frost advisory is in effect overnight for central VA, where lows are expected to fall into the range of 33-36 degrees. We are well into the Spring planting season, and any sensitive vegetation should be covered or brought indoors. Temperatures will warm very quickly through the morning hours Friday, with low 70s expected area wide by afternoon.

Next Storm System

Our next storm system is now spinning out west, where there are Winter Storm Warnings throughout the Central Rockies. Out ahead of the storm, there will be a threat for severe storms later this afternoon in High Plains of the Midwest.

We are tracking this storm, and will have more updates soon!

Showers Have Diminished

Rain has now moved off the coast and the rest of today will be dry. Patches of dense fog have developed in north central VA, so if your travels take you northward, it could slow you down.

One Last Round of Rain Expected This Evening

A band of light to moderate rain will move through the metro this evening, with the heaviest rain falling in a zone approximately 10 to 30 miles west of downtown Richmond. The rain will taper off and skies will slowly clear overnight.

A Good Soaking Rain in the Metro

Much of Henrico, northern Chesterfield, and the City of Richmond is seeing a steady light to moderate rain. Expect an additional .10 to .25 in most areas as the rain moves very slowly to the southeast over the next several hours. Much of the City of Richmond should receive between .25" and .5" from 2:30 through 4 PM.

Rain Totals Update Wednesday Morning

Here is an update on some of the rain totals in Central Virginia as of Wednesday early morning:

Newland 1.0"
Callao 1.0"
Farmville 1.0"
Reedville 0.9"

Williamsburg 0.7"

Fredericksburg 0.7"
Ashland 0.7"
Goochland 0.7"
Richmond 0.5"
Charlottesville 0.4"
Petersburg 0.4"
Coatesville 0.3"
Locust Grove 0.1"

Rain Totals So Far...

Here are some of the rain totals coming in from the rain late Monday through 11 a.m. Tuesday:

Callao 1.0"
Farmville 0.9"
Reedville 0.7"
Fredericksburg 0.7"
Ashland 0.5"
Goochland 0.5"
Charlottesville 0.4"
Petersburg 0.4"
Newland 0.3"
Richmond 0.3"
Williamsburg 0.2"

Showers will continue across Central Virginia Tuesday afternoon, overnight, and linger into most of Wednesday, also, so these totals will go up. Some localized areas of the region have already picked up more than an inch.
--Carrie

Periods Of Rain Tuesday & Wednesday

At 6:20 a.m., moderate to occasionally heavy rain is headed Northeast toward the Richmond Metro. Allow extra time on your morning commute.

Periods of rain will continue to affect Central Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday, as a low pressure storm system moves from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic.
--Carrie

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Updated

Dr. William Gray and his staff have made slight modifications to their earlier forecast for the 2009 Hurricane Season. The new forecast decreases the expected tropical activity in 2009. The first forecast issued back in December called for 14 named storms, which has now been reduced to 12. The number of hurricanes forecast has been reduced from 7 to 6, and the number of major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) from 3 to 2. These numbers equate to a near-average season of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

Good Rain Chances Coming

Skies will become overcast Monday as a storm system approaches the Commonwealth. This system will bring good rain chances to Central Virginia starting this evening, and continuing into Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is likely overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Storm total rainfall over the next few days may run one to two inches in Central Virginia.
--Carrie

Hope You Enjoyed Today!

I got to walk along the Canal Walk near downtown early today before I came into work. It's such a gorgeous walk, especially now that things are looking more green. In addition, there aren't many bugs out there right now, so if you haven't taken a walk along the James this year, now is the time to go!

Quiet For Now

Most of the rain has exited the area for this morning, but the core of the storm system is still spinning overhead. For this reason, I have left a 40% chance for a quick shower for this morning, then we will be dry for the rest of this weekend.

Weather Update

A broad area of rain and a few thunderstorms will push into central Virginia late tonight. There will be a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms overnight as the upper-level wave approaches the area. The greatest risk for widespread severe weather will be across Georgia and the Carolinas overnight through Saturday as the storm system moves offshore. We will be monitoring the situation overnight with frequent updates if severe weather develops in the area.

Mostly Cloudy Friday, Rain Late

Clouds streamed into Central Virginia early Friday morning ahead of a strong storm system moving into the Midwest. Severe storms will be possible today in the South, with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly isolated tornadoes. You can check out the risk area here. This system will move into Central Virginia Friday night, bringing rain chances overnight into early Saturday morning. There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms in Southern Virginia, but it looks like most of the severe threat will remain to our southwest.

The cold front will sweep any rain to the Southeast by lunchtime Saturday, keeping the afternoon dry. Easter Sunday will start out cold in the upper 30's, but end up sunny and mild in the low 60's in the afternoon.
--Carrie

Thunderstorms?

I've had a few people ask me about the chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night. Right now it looks like we will have limited instability (unstable=better chance for storms). If we get some breaks in the clouds and the sun heats us up, then we will have a better chance for storms in the evening.

Right now I'm looking out west at a shield of clouds headed this way, so it looks like we will see only peeks of sunshine tomorrow. I still think we will warm up enough that isolated thunderstorms will pop up.

Best chance for severe storms will be in the southwest corner of the state, where jet stream winds will be stronger.

Few Rain Showers in Southern VA Thur AM

A few scattered rain showers are moving through the Southern half of Virginia early Thursday morning, with a few sprinkles elsewhere in the state. Most of these showers will be Southeast of our area by 8 a.m.
--Carrie

Freeze Wednesday Morning In Spots

Some parts of Central Virginia have been able to dip to freezing this morning, but winds have not become calm enough across most of the region overnight. This is preventing a widespread freeze in the area. However, any spot that does have winds weaken around sunrise will have a good chance of briefly dipping to freezing. As of 6 a.m., the Emporia area is the only part of Central Virginia reporting freezing temperatures.
--Carrie

Cloudy With Sprinkles And...Flakes??

We have a few sprinkles moving across the area. In addition, we have received a couple reports of some flurries! Temperatures are *just* cold enough in the upper atmosphere that this can happen!

Cooler Tuesday, Spring Freeze Wednesday

Colder, drier air will continue to filter into Central Virginia behind Monday's cold front. Highs will be about 10-15 degrees cooler today than on Monday, and I expect a widespread freeze by Wednesday morning. Winds will weaken Tuesday night, and skies will become mostly clear. This will aid in cooling overnight, allowing Wednesday morning temperatures to dip to around freezing.

It will not be unusual to have another freeze on Wednesday, April 8. In fact, April 8 is the date for the average last Spring freeze for Richmond! Could it be our last one this season? At this time, I do not see another deep cold plunge moving into our region in the next couple of weeks. However, Spring freezes have occurred as late as May 11 in Richmond (that one occurred in 1966).

Just in case you're wondering, the earliest last Spring freeze on record for Richmond is March 12, 1946. Our most recent freeze this year in Richmond was on March 25, when we had a low temperature of 28 degrees.

--Carrie

Showers Ending West To East

Thunderstorms have pushed into far Southeast Virginia at mid-day, with scattered rain showers lingering in much of Central Virginia. The rain will end from West to East through the afternoon, completely exiting the Commonwealth by late afternoon. Sunshine is already showing up in Western Virginia at this time!
--Carrie

Storms Moving East

The Tornado Watch for much of Central Virginia is no longer in effect. The Watch does remain in effect for far Southeast and Eastern VA near the Bay. A line of strong thunderstorms continues to push East-Northeast toward the Chesapeake Bay at 11:15 a.m. These storms are still capable of strong, damaging winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.
--Carrie

Tornado Watch Until 3 p.m.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 3 p.m. for Central and Eastern Virginia, along I-85 and locations East. This means that strong to severe storms are possible in the warned area, with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes being possible.

Here are all the counties included in Virginia:

CHESTERFIELD
HANOVER
HENRICO
PRINCE GEORGE
CHARLES CITY
ESSEX
GLOUCESTER
KING WILLIAM
KING AND QUEEN
LANCASTER
MIDDLESEX
NEW KENT
NORTHUMBERLAND
RICHMOND
CAROLINE
BRUNSWICK
DINWIDDIE
GREENSVILLE
ISLE OF WIGHT
JAMES CITY
MATHEWS
SOUTHAMPTON
SURRY
SUSSEX
YORK
ACCOMACK
NORTHAMPTON

And here are the cities included:
CITY OF HOPEWELL
CITY OF PETERSBURG
CITY OF RICHMOND
CITY OF COLONIAL HEIGHTS
CITY OF CHESAPEAKE
CITY OF EMPORIA
CITY OF FRANKLIN
CITY OF HAMPTON
CITY OF NEWPORT NEWS
CITY OF NORFOLK
CITY OF POQUOSON
CITY OF PORTSMOUTH
CITY OF SUFFOLK
CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH
CITY OF WILLIAMSBURG

Showers & T-storms Moving In

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun forming in Southwestern parts of Virginia this morning. Expect frequent lightning and brief heavy rain as these storms move to the Northeast at about 40 mph.
--Carrie

Cold Front Moving In, Chance Storms Monday

A cold front is moving into Western Virginia early Monday morning, with some showers along it. But ahead of the front through this morning and into early afternoon, Central Virginia has an opportunity for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe with damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. The eastern quarter of the Commonwealth has the best opportunity for severe thunderstorms, as the cold front will not move through that region until mid and late afternoon. Westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph or more will sweep through Central Virginia behind the cold front. Cooler temperatures will move into the region after this front, keeping highs in the 50's both Tuesday and Wednesday.
--Carrie

Chance For Storms Monday

We will see a quick chance for some strong storms tomorrow. Spotty showers will be possible early tomorrow morning. Then between 10 AM and 2 PM, thunderstorms will develop throughout central Virginia. These storms will race off to the east so most areas will be dry by 5 PM.

Any storms that develop will be moving FAST, so damaging winds will be the main threat tomorrow. Carrie will be monitoring the situation in the morning and will have updates as conditions warrant. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

Brush Fires

The newsroom has been busy today with numerous reports of brush fires across the region. Although winds have been generally 5 to 15 mph, there was a 21 mph gust last hour. Combine this with super dry air (23% relative humidity) and there is a moderate fire danger this evening.

Winds will strengthen tonight, but at the same time, humidity levels will rise. Overall, this will decrease the fire danger as the night progresses.

Be sure to tune in tonight at 6:30 and 11 PM, we will have updates on the brush fires!

A Glance Back & A Peek Ahead

Temperatures for the month of March were just slightly below average.

However, over the past seven days, temperatures have been slightly above average.



In other words, there haven't been too many large fluctuations in temperatures - no record highs and no record lows. It looks like this trend will continue for the next couple weeks. With exception to the cold blast next Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will typically stay within 5 to 10 degrees of the average (above or below).

In addition, the jet stream will remain rather flat, allowing fast-moving storm systems to pass the area.



This means we will have several chances for rain, which is great news! More than likely we will see average or slightly above average rainfall.

Strong Winds to Continue Through Early Evening

A powerful storm system continues to pull away from the area, and the resultant pressure rise across central Virginia has created strong westerly winds. Sustained wind speeds will continue in the range of 20-30 mph through 7 PM, with winds steadily decreasing after dark.

Rain Gone, Winds Strengthen

The last batch of rain raced off to the east, so now the rest of today will be dry. Winds will increase over the next couple hours, then briefly diminish later tonight.

2-6 PM: West winds 20 to 30 mph with 40+ gusts

6-10 PM: West winds 15 to 25 with 35+ gusts

One More Round Of Rain

A line of moderate to heavy rain has developed along the cold front and is headed this way. This will move into metro Richmond in the next half hour to 45 minutes and continue eastward into the Northern Neck for the early afternoon.

Areas south of Petersburg will stay mostly dry...there is only a slight chance for a renegade shower in the next two hours.

Break From Rain Before Front Moves Through

Sunshine is bearing down across Central Virginia after heavy rainfall all morning. However, another short round of showers and a few thunderstorms is possible around lunchtime into early afternoon as the front moves in from the West. Strong winds will accompany the front, with gusts up around 30 mph.
--Carrie

Heavy Rain in Metro

Heavy rain continues to move through the Richmond metro area at this time. Lightning activity has decreased, but an occasional lightning strike is still possible. The rainfall can be blinding at times when driving, so please use extra caution on the roads. Very heavy rainfall is currently affecting I-95 north of Richmond to Fredericksburg. All this activity is moving Northeast at 40 to 45 mph.
--Carrie

Rain & T-storm Update 8:20 a.m.

Periods of heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes will continue in Central Virginia Friday morning. At this time, the back end of the rain stretches from North to South from the Charlottesville area to Farmville to South Hill. The rain and storms are moving Northeast at 40 to 50 mph.
--Carrie

Rain & T-storm Update 7:30 a.m.

Heavy rain continues to move through Central and Western Virginia Friday morning, bringing several rounds of heavy rain to areas along and west of I-95 so far. All this activity is moving to the Northeast at a swift clip at about 50 to 60 mph. There are some lightning strikes associated with the heaviest rainfall, so if you hear thunder this morning you are close enough to be struck outside. Remain inside until the storm passes. Rainfall totals from this activity is less than two-tenths of an inch in most places because of the rapid pace at which these showers are moving.
--Carrie

Soaking Rain And Isolated T-Storms Friday AM

Beneficial, soaking rains are moving through parts of Central Virginia this Friday morning. The downside to this activity is how quickly the rain is moving to the Northeast, which does not allow heavy rains to fall over any one spot for an extended period of time. However, it does look like rain coverage and intensity is increasing this morning, with isolated thunderstorms developing in South-Central Virginia as of 6:30 a.m.

These showers and isolated storms are moving to the Northeast at 50 to 60 mph, and will affect much of Western and Central Virginia through the rest of this morning.

--Carrie

The Sun Is Giving Us The Silent Treatment

NASA data continues to indicate that the Sun’s current activity level, or lack-there-of, is the deepest solar minimum in a century. In fact, the Sun has not had a sunspot in 80 of the days so far in 2009. That’s 87% of the time this year, the Sun has been spotless. The Sun’s current spotless streak is 25 consecutive days, with the last sunspot observed in early March. The longest blank streak in the past century was 92 days, which occurred nearly 100 years ago during April, May, and June of 1913. While this solar minimum is notable (seriously, it hasn't been this quiet in nearly a century!), the Sun would have to remain blank from now until early June 2009 to tie the 1913 record. (For a check of the Sun’s daily solar activity, go to http://www.spaceweather.com/)


(Above: The sunspot cycle from 1995 to the present. The jagged curve traces actual sunspot counts. Smooth curves are fits to the data and one forecaster's predictions of future activity. Credit: David Hathaway, NASA/MSFC.)

The Sun has a regular cycle it goes through about every eleven years, with a predictable, steady rise and fall in solar activity (i.e., sunspots, irradiance, magnetic energy emission). And most NASA scientists thought 2008 was rock bottom for this solar cycle’s minimum. No sunspots occurred 73% of the days in 2008 (that’s 266 days out of 366). Only 1913 had more spotless days at 311 blank sun days.

But well into 2009, the Sun continues to give us the silent treatment, with an overwhelming majority of the days this year being blank. Year-to-date, the Sun has been “silent” 80 out of 92 days. Although the Sun continues to adhere to its traditional solar cycle, this minimum may be especially unusual because it is also accompanied by a 50-year low in solar wind pressure, a 12-year low in solar irradiance, and a 55-year low in solar radio emissions, according to NASA data. For more on those three points, check out NASA’s discussion here.

So if the Sun is in a minimum of activity, does this mean we don't need to worry about the sunscreen this Summer? NO! Slather on that good, protective sunscreen! Take it from someone who knows...a fair-skinned redhead with blue eyes. Yes, you guessed it, it takes me all of 10 minutes to turn from white to lobster red in the sun without protection. Wear sunscreen! Just do it. Seriously.
--Carrie

March Rainfall Summary

Central Virginia’s March fit the cliché of “in like a lion and out like a lamb.” A snowstorm with up to a foot of snow in parts of Central Virginia blew through March 1-2, 2009. The final days of March were fairly uneventful, remaining dry and warming into the 60’s and 70’s. However, we made good progress this month on picking up some rainfall, especially toward the end of the month. Here are some of the March rainfall totals from the area:

Richmond Intl Airport: 4.26” in March (that's +0.17” departure from average for the month). However, Richmond is still 4.13” below average year-to-date, with a total 6.49” of liquid precipitation. And, despite the impressive snowstorm the beginning of this month, Richmond is still 5.8” below average for this season’s snowfall. So far this Winter season, we accumulated only 6.6” officially, 6.3” of which fell in March. You can view March daily weather data here.

Norfolk: 5.28” in March (+1.20” depature from average for the month), with 8.36” year-to-date (-2.99” departure from average for the year-to-date)
Petersburg: 4.09” in March, with 10.62” year-to-date
Wakefield: 5.87” in March
Farmville: 1.84” in March
Emporia: 2.11” in March
Danville: 3.37” in March
Williamsburg: 2.00” in March
Fredericksburg: 0.84” in March
Charlottesville: 2.28” in March
Roanoke: 3.47” in March

Weather Watcher Reports:
Reedville: 4.7” rain (also had 3” of snow) in March
Newland: 4.4” rain in March
Coatesville: 3.28" rain in March (with year-to-date total of 5.98")

For the latest information on the Virginia drought situation, click here.