Fourth of July Forecast

At this time, it looks like the Fourth of July on Saturday should be dry and very warm in the upper 80's, whether you plan to be in Richmond or Petersburg, head to the beach, or brave I-95 northbound up to D.C. for the big fireworks show. By Sunday, there may be a few showers and storms in the state, but at this time, chances appear relatively low.

We'll have updates on the holiday weekend forecast through the week!

--Carrie

River Levels Continue To Drop

With the exception of a downpour last Friday night, the past several days have been relatively dry. Consequently, river levels have been steadily dropping. In fact, the James is about to drop below 5' near the city.



In addition, most river and stream levels are about normal - indicated by the green dots on the map below.



Chances for rain will remain slim for most of this workweek. Isolated light showers will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday...that's about it. For this reason, I'm expecting river levels to continue to drop heading into the upcoming Holiday weekend.

Spotty Showers

A line of widely scattered showers has entered the Virginia Piedmont and will quickly pass Richmond and Petersburg over the next hour. The atmosphere is extremely stable, so the chances for thunderstorms are very slim.

Comfortable This Morning

Temperatures were generally in the mid 60s this morning, however, Emporia and Staunton started in the upper 50s. It's been awhile since I've seen that!

We will have a mixture of sun and clouds through the rest of today with a slight chance for a stray shower in the late afternoon and evening.

Few Storms Possible Friday

A weak cool front will move into the Commonwealth Friday afternoon, bringing the chance for scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. A few may become severe, with the main threat being for strong, straight-line wind damage. Low-level moisture is in place across the region, and afternoon highs are expected to climb into the low 90's once again.

Despite this frontal passage, highs will still be in the low 90's this weekend. Another weak front will move into the area Sunday, bringing another chance for scattered storms.
--Carrie

Today Was Hot...

...but it wasn't the hottest day of the year. However, it still made the list of the five hottest so far:

1) 95° on June 20
2) 94° on June 2
3) 92° Today
4) 92° on May 25
5) 91° on June 3

Heat Safety

Central Virginia is entering a prolonged stretch of hot weather, where afternoon highs are expected to climb into the mid-90's each afternoon Thursday through the beginning of next week. Humidity levels are also rising, and that means heat index values will rise as well into the 98-103 range. Heat index is what the air temperature feels like to a human in the shade. In full sunshine, it will feel even hotter as you add the radiational heating effect to your skin.

Heat index takes into account the actual air temperature as measured by a thermometer, the level of moisture content in the atmosphere at that temperature, and also how human bodies' ability to perspire is compromised in higher humidity levels. When you get hot, your body perspires to carry heat away from the surface of your skin as the sweat evaporates. Evaporation is a cooling process, taking heat away from your body and transferring it into the atmosphere. However, when moisture content is relatively high in the atmosphere around your body, your sweat does not evaporate as effectively. Thus, the heat remains on your body. You can calculate heat index values using this tool. Or, you can view it in a chart form.

I cannot emphasize enough that the heat index value is a measurement for what it feels like to you in the shade. In the sun, it will feel even hotter. Add another 10 to 15 degrees on top of the heat index value to get what it feels like to you outside in the sun.

Here are some thresholds to guide you (remember, these are for shade):
Heat Index 90-105: Use Extreme Caution outdoors. Heat cramps and heat exhaustion can occur, with heat stroke possible.
Heat Index 105-130: Danger. Heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely, with heat stroke probable with extended outdoor exertion.
Heat Index 130+: Extreme Danger. Heat stroke is imminent.

Play safe this weekend!
--Carrie

Watch the Moon Fly-By LIVE!

(IMAGE: NASA)

NASA spacecraft are approaching the Moon early Tuesday after lifting off on June 18 on the Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral, FL. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Spacecraft (LCROSS) will make their first pass over the Moon Tuesday, the first time since Lunar Prospector in 1998-1999 that a U.S. probe made a fly-by of the Moon. NASA lists that LCROSS instruments on board include: two near-infrared spectrometers, a visible light spectrometer, two mid-infrared cameras, two near-infrared cameras, a visible camera and a visible radiometer. The spacecraft will orbit about 5590 miles above the Moon's surface today.

Starting at about 8:20 a.m. EDT, NASA will stream this fly-by online live from LCROSS as it takes high-resolution images of the Moon's surface. You can watch the stream live here.

For more on the LCROSS mission, click here.

Tropical Storm Andres in East Pacific

The first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season formed early Monday morning off the Southwest coast of Mexico. The East Pacific hurricane season begins earlier than our Atlantic season, on May 15. However, Tropical Storm Andres is a little late to kick off the Eastern Pacific season this year. This is the latest into the season for the first named storm to form in 40 years. Still, better late than never, right? Although...I'm sure there are a lot of folks on the Western coast of Mexico and Southern Baja hoping Andres merely brushes past them instead of making a direct landfall.

Tropical Storm Andres is expected to strengthen to hurricane status by Tuesday, as the storm continues to move over very warm ocean waters. You can keep up with the latest on Andres here.

As of Monday morning, there is still no tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. We have yet to see our first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. However, we have at least already had our first tropical depression of the year, Tropical Depression One from May 28-29. You can read a summary of that storm here.
--Carrie

Crunching The Numbers

Today was the Summer Solstice, which is the longest day of the year (14 hours and 45 minutes). This is over five hours longer than on the shortest day of the year (Winter Solstice). I've compiled all the data and put it into table form.

Can you tell today was a quiet weather day? :)

Summer Begins Today!

Summer officially began this morning at 1:45 AM. The Summer Solstice is the time period when the Sun's most direct rays are over 23.3°N. It is also the longest day of the year - days will now shorten for the rest of the year.

There is a common misconception that the Earth is closest to the Sun during summer. It's actually the opposite! On July 4th, the Earth will be at its farthest point from the Sun - roughly 95 million miles (called the Aphelion). On January 4th earlier this year, the Earth was at its closest point to the Sun - approximately 91 million miles (called the Perihelion).

Tornado Watch Lifted

The threat for severe storms has now diminished for the rest of today. Strong thunderstorms raced through the Northern Neck earlier this afternoon and are now in the Eastern Shore. I'm expecting the rest of this evening and tonight to be dry.

Tornado Watch Until 8 PM

A strong thunderstorm currently resides just to the east of Fredericksburg and is moving to the SE at 30 mph. This will be affecting the Northern Neck over the next couple hours, so be on the lookout!

Richmond and Petersburg are not in the Watch, but an isolated shower is still possible until sunset. Most of the area will then be dry for tonight.

Few Storms Possible Friday

Once again, a few strong to severe storms are possible Friday afternoon during peak heating. Ample low-level moisture remains in the Commonwealth, with an upper-level northwest flow bringing disturbances through the region. The main threats with these storms will be much like Thursday, with damaging winds and large hail. What is left of a complex of storms from the Upper Midwest this morning will move into Virginia from West Virginia through early afternoon. Those dying storms may reintensify this afternoon in Central Virginia and move into North Carolina late Friday afternoon.

There may be more scattered strong to severe storms Saturday in the Commonwealth, as well. For this reason, we are included in the Slight Risk region through Saturday as well.

--Carrie

Active Severe Weather Day Expected Friday

There were several reports of wind damage and large hail in central Virginia today, as storms moved through during the afternoon and evening hours. 15 minutes of ping pong ball sized hail was reported near Partlow in southern Spotsylvania county, and downed trees were reported in King George and Surry counties. A waterspout reported by storm spotters as "unusually large" developed just off the coast of Virginia Beach.
Friday should bring just as many fireworks to the Commonwealth, and then some. Plentiful low-level moisture and 90-degree afternoon heat will combine to produce thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The storms will develop in the afternoon and evening hours and should be scattered in nature. Another episode of severe weather will be possible late Friday night into early Saturday morning as a fast-moving complex of storms moves from northwest to southeast across the state. This complex would be the remains of numerous severe storms expected to develop in the Upper Midwest and Southern Great lakes region Friday afternoon. I've included the current severe weather outlook for Friday, and meteorologist Carrie Rose will have the updated outlook(s) Friday morning.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9 PM

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of central and eastern Virginia until 9 PM. Expect hail up to the size of hen eggs and wind gusts to 70 mph with the strongest storms. There will also be the potential for a tornado or two, especially east of I-95 and north of I-64.

Severe Risk Thursday

Severe storms are possible in the Commonwealth Thursday afternoon, capable of producing locally damaging winds, large hail, and even isolated tornadoes.

We remain in an upper-level northwest flow pattern, where upper-level disturbances continue to pulse through the region. At the surface, a low pressure system will track just to our north today. These factors will provide the lift necessary for storms, but we will also have the afternoon heating today that we did not have on Wednesday. Breaks in the clouds should occur by mid-day, allowing afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80's, a good ten degrees warmer than our highs on Wednesday.

Initially, storms should form in the higher terrain of Western Virginia, then track eastward into Central Virginia this afternoon. There is at least a chance for an isolated tornado, as conditions appear conducive for supporting rotating storms.

Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel will be monitoring the threat this afternoon!

There were several tornadoes yesterday in the Plains, but here is great video of one from Aurora, Nebraska:


For a full list of the severe weather reports Wednesday in the country, click here.
--Carrie

Severe Weather Possible Thursday

Conditions Thursday afternoon should come together to produce scattered severe thunderstorms in central Virginia. The strongest storms will contain large hail and damaging wind gusts. There will also be a threat for a few tornadoes along a trough line that should be located roughly parallel to the Blue Ridge, and also in the vicinity of a surface low in north-central Virginia. Check back early Thursday for the latest on what to expect.

El Niño Watch

The surface water of the Equatorial Pacific is showing signs of becoming warmer than average, which would indicate a transition to El Niño conditions. That region has remained "neutral" through May, but temperatures have been gradually rising for five months. By the end of May, sea surface temperatures were about +0.4° to +0.5°C in the critical region, which suggest the beginning of an El Niño. Read the entire ENSO Discussion.

Based on these recent trends, it is likely that the Equatorial Pacific will transition to El Niño conditions from June through August 2009. Read the latest weekly update here.

Our most recent ENSO episode was a La Niña from August 2007 to June of 2008. Since then, we have been in weak La Niña transitioning to neutral conditions through 2009 so far.

The last El Niño episode was July 2006 through February 2007.

What could El Niño mean for the Commonwealth? Well, not much. For a Summertime El Niño episode, not much deviation from average is documented for Virginia. In fact in the United States, only the Rocky Mountain West shows any substantial response in the Summer to an El Niño with wetter than average conditions. The U.S. tends to experience more noticeable climate impacts during a Winter El Niño event.

(Click to enlarge this graphic)

Well, what about impacts from El Niño on the Atlantic Hurricane Season? Research has shown that El Niño's wind profiles encourage the development of more eastern Pacific hurricanes, while hindering the development of Atlantic hurricanes. La Niña leads to the opposite, with fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes. Read here for a full discussion on ENSO's possible impact on tropical activity. So this means that the chances for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts to receive a hurricane are reduced. However, this does not mean that hurricanes cannot form and do significant damage during an El Niño season.

--Carrie

Heavy Rain Monday Morning

Very heavy rainfall greeted many of you in Central Virginia for your Monday morning! Totals ranged from as little as a trace to as much as an inch or more in some spots. Officially at RIC, there was 0.43" accumulated. Farmville is an example of the higher totals, though, with 1.1" from this morning's rain.

There is a slight chance for scattered showers this afternoon, but we should be dry by this evening in all of Central Virginia. Tuesday looks dry before our next chance of rain and storms returns Wednesday and Thursday.

Brief Shift In Weather Pattern

We did it! We finally made it through a day without rain. Hope you enjoyed your Sunday!

We have an interesting weather pattern setting up for the start of the workweek. The general flow will be from the coast for Monday through Wednesday. This should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than what we've seen for the past few days.



This will also bring in some moisture from the Atlantic. Consequently, spotty showers will be possible tomorrow and we should at least see some clouds on Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm still a little skeptical about our rain chances on Tuesday or Wednesday, but if you have outdoor plans, keep a close eye to the forecast and we will keep you updated!

Strong Storms In The Piedmont

Strong storms are now moving through southern Cumberland, Prince Edward, and northern Charlotte counties. These are moving to the southeast at 30 to 35 mph. These thunderstorms will move into Amelia, Nottoway and Lunenburg counties in the next 15 to 30 minutes. You can expect strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with these storms. Some small hail will also be possible with the strongest storms.

Today's Severe Potential

Isolated thunderstorms will again pop up this afternoon and evening. Although the SPC has not targeted our area for widespread severe weather, one or two storms could still quickly become severe. If you're outside today, keep a close eye to the western horizon and if the sky looks dark/ominous, take shelter before the storm hits!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled

Storms struggled to develop this afternoon due to a warm layer of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. This "capping inversion" prevented updrafts from growing past a certain level and the taller storms capable of damaging winds and large hail never developed.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Until 8 PM

Expect strong to severe thunderstorms to continue to develop across central VA this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing wind gusts to 70 mph and quarter-sized hail.

Do I Sound Like A Broken Record?

You guessed it...we have the chance for more scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening as another upper-level wave swings through the region. Ample low-level moisture remains in place, along with very warm afternoon temperatures. When you combine that with the lift from the approaching storm system, you can get strong to severe thunderstorms developing. There will be the potential this afternoon and tonight for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, as well as torrential rainfall on already saturated soil from recent heavy rains.

At this time, it does appear that most of the activity will move in from western parts of the state late this afternoon and sweep through the I-95 region tonight. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible in Central and Eastern Virginia this afternoon during peak heating.

--Carrie

More Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

Yet another round of strong to severe storms is possible in the Commonwealth Wednesday afternoon and evening as upper level disturbances continue to pulse through our region this week and a weak boundary lingers in the area. The first storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of Western Virginia along I-81 this afternoon during the peak daytime heating. Ample low-level moisture remains in place to fuel these storms, which will be capable of heavy downpours, gusty winds, and a whole lot of lightning. Some of the strongest storms may become severe, with damaging winds and large hail.

The storms that develop in the higher terrain will track toward Central Virginia through the afternoon, and despite the loss of daytime heating, the strongest storms may still be severe tonight. Keep in mind that the ground is quite moist after recent heavy rains, and trees can blow over easier in gusty winds. Wind gusts will not need to be severe to knock over some trees in the soggy soil. Flash flooding will also be possible with the storms today and tonight.
--Carrie

Doozie of a Storm Tuesday Evening!

Strong to severe thunderstorms swept through the Commonwealth Tuesday, beginning early afternoon and lasting all the way through the evening. As many of you know, these had intense lightning frequency, which knocked out power to many customers. Like me, you may have woken up this morning to flashing clocks in your house from the power hits taken last night. For a full list of the severe reports Tuesday, click here. And be sure to scroll down to the previous blog entries and check out the great pictures and video Aaron posted from our viewers!

Shelf Cloud In New Kent

This is a photo of another storm that developed earlier today in New Kent. Thanks to Matt Baker for this photo!

Shelf Cloud Moving Through Chester

Thanks to Dean Ruth for sending this in!

Line Of Thunderstorms About To Affect Richmond

A squall line is just about to enter the metro Richmond area. This line of storms has a history of knocking down some trees with strong wind gusts. There have also been reports of dime to nickel-sized hail. As always with a thunderstorm, you can also expect frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.

Slight Risk Severe Storms This Afternoon

As an upper level disturbance swings through the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds and large hail. Any of the storms that do form, though, will produce frequent lightning strikes and heavy rain. Activity is expected to develop around 2 p.m. and continue through sunset, which is at 8:30 p.m. tonight. With the loss of daytime heating, storms are expected to rapidly weaken.

--Carrie

Scattered Storms Tuesday AM

Scattered thunderstorms continue Tuesday morning in North-Central parts of the state, from around Partlow to south of Fredericksburg to Dahlgren. These storms are producing frequent lightning strikes, heavy rain, and gusty winds at times. Movement is to the east at 15 mph.
--Carrie

Strong to Severe Storms Tues AM

Strong to severe thunderstorms are moving through North-Central and West-Central Virginia early Tuesday morning, producing nearly constant lightning, heavy rain, penny-size hail, and wind gusts up to 60 mph. These storms will continue to move to the East and Northeast at about 20 mph.

These storms are firing in response to a leading shortwave ahead of the main cold front, which will move into the region today. I'll be covering these storms on CBS 6 This Morning, so tune in for all the details!
--Carrie

Thunderstorms Linger

Two thunderstorms continue to hang around the area this evening. One it just south of Midlothian and the other is just east of Mechanicsville. These storms are moving very slowly to the east and are dumping a lot of rain. Some minor flooding will be possible with these storms, in fact, Doppler rainfall estimates are already over 2" in southern Hanover and northern New Kent counties!

Isolated Showers This Evening

A couple showers have popped up in the area this evening. These are drifting to the east at about 5 to 10 mph. A stray shower will be possible for the entire area for the rest of this evening.

Severe Weather Sweeps Country

A storm system moving through the U.S. since this weekend continues to produce severe weather Monday, and may lead to severe storms in the Commonwealth Tuesday afternoon and evening. But this weekend, this upper storm kicked off strong to severe thunderstorms from Colorado to the Midwest. For a full list of the severe weather reported Sunday, click here.

You'll notice all the red dots indicating tornado reports near Denver, CO. Check out the tornado video damage at our CBS affiliate KCNC here. Here is another video from Colorado on Sunday:



And this is great amateur video of the Aurora, CO funnel forming:


This funnel did touch down and caused damage at Southlands Mall in Aurora, CO, a suburb of Denver.

Large hail also fell in Missouri, damaging vehicles and roofs. Grapefruit-sized hail caused damage in the Lake Viking area west of Gallatin, MO. For details and video from CBS affiliate KCTV of that hail Sunday night, click here .

Today, that same upper system continues to move through the midsection of the country, and will likely produce more severe weather.

This system will reach the Commonwealth with its surface weak cold front Tuesday, and may produce some strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. The slight risk area is outlined below. The main threats will include damaging winds and large hail.

Looking Back A Year

If you remember, June 2008 was a hot month. On this date last year, temperatures skyrocketed to 100, which was a new record high. In fact, we broke record highs for the following three days as well - here are the numbers:

June 7, 2008: 100°
June 8, 2008: 100°
June 9, 2008: 98°
June 10, 2008: 101°

Snow In North Dakota

Check out this video I found on Youtube...it snowed today in North Dakota! A late season snow can occur from time to time in the Northern Midwest, but this is pretty amazing!

Patchy Fog Again Tonight

Patches of dense fog are already developing across the region, especially near Emporia, where visibilities are below a half mile. Most of the fog should lift by late morning tomorrow and Sunday should be another pleasant day!

Rain Totals Since Wednesday

Dark blue: 1 to 2"
Green: 2 to 3"
Yellow: 4+"

A Look At Local Rivers

Rivers and stream levels are significantly higher than yesterday. Here is the current streamflow map:

Widespread Heavy Rains Tally

Widespread rains continue Friday morning in the Commonwealth, but activity is expected to wind down through the afternoon and evening as the low pressure system causing Friday's heavy rains moves into the Atlantic.

As this low moved through the South, it produced impressive totals. For a full list of those rain totals, click here.

River levels are expected to rise Friday in much of Virginia. Check out the levels here.

Here are some selected rain totals in Virginia this week through 9 a.m. Friday:
Ashland 4.09"
Danville 2.97"
Wakefield 2.22"
Richmond 2.09"
Lynchburg 2.08"
Emporia 1.74"
Norfolk 1.70"
Culpeper 1.08"
Charlottesville 1.07"
Fredericksburg 0.67"
Petersburg 0.45"
Williamsburg 0.10"

Wednesday Stanley Tornado Confirmed

Wednesday evening at 6:45 p.m., a tornado touched down in the town of Stanley in Page County near the intersection of Pond Avenue and Dogwood Lane, which is WNW of the center of Stanley. National Weather Service surveyors confirmed the touchdown Thursday, rating the Wednesday tornado as an EF-1, with estimated peak winds of 90-100 mph.

After touching down, the tornado continued on the ground for 1 2/3 miles, with a width of 600 yards. While on the ground, the tornado blew a mobile home off its foundation, rolling it over the intersection of Pond Ave and Dogwood Ln. The survey states, "Three residents were in the home at the time, but they escaped without significant injury." Other damage includes several large trees and branches blowing over, one onto a house nearby. At least one person saw the tornado while it was on the ground, spinning debris with it.

The tornado lifted at 6:50 p.m., but the severe thunderstorm that created it continued to produce wind damage in the area.

For a full list of all severe reports that day, click here.

Prior to this confirmed tornado Wednesday, there were seven previous tornadoes reported in the Commonwealth. To view a map of this year's severe weather reports year-to-date, click here.

Flood Potential Tonight

Over the past couple days, isolated areas have received over 4" of rainfall. This has increased the flow of a few streams and rivers in the area. Here is a map of current stream flow across the region.




Areas marked by blue or black dots are probably dealing with the worst flooding right now. I'm expecting rain to persist through the night, so other locations could also experience flooding.

You can find the map above at this link:

http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?m=real&r=va

Tornado Threat Has Diminished

Storms have weakened over the past couple hours, so the threat for tornadoes has diminished for Central Virginia. Rain is still likely tonight and will be heavy at times. We could easily pick up 1 to 3" of rain by tomorrow afternoon. For this reason, a Flood Watch has been issued for most of the area and is in effect until Friday afternoon.

Tornado Watch Until 8 PM

A Tornado Watch has been issued for the southern third of Virginia and is in effect until 8 PM. There is enough shear in the atmosphere that isolated weak tornadoes will be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening.

Lightning Awareness & Safety

During strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday, many of you heard the crashing thunder from frequent lightning strikes as these moved through Central Virginia (see Zach's blog entry below for a summary of the severe weather reports). As we all know, lightning is one of the most dangerous aspects of a thunderstorm. Sadly, a child playing catch Wednesday evening near a thunderstorm was struck directly by lightning and died. For those details, click here.

This is tragic, but you can stay safe during outdoor activities by knowing and adhering to basic lightning safety. The National Weather Service/FEMA/Red Cross have provided an online site with great lightning information. Here is a brochure for your family to read together. One fact I'd like to emphasize is that you do not have to be directly underneath where the rain is falling from a thunderstorm to be at risk of being struck by lightning. Lightning can strike as far out as ten miles from the rain! A handy trick to determine how far away a lightning strike is from you is to count the number of seconds from when you see the lightning strike until you hear the associated thunder. Divide that number by five, and that is an approximation of the miles between you and the strike. For example, if you count 25 seconds from seeing a strike and hearing the thunder, that strike was five miles away from you. This means you are in immediate danger and must seek shelter indoors and away from windows. Regardless of the distance, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be at risk; move indoors immediately.

Here is the list of cloud-to-ground flash densities ranked by state from 1996 to 2005. Virginia ranked 21st, with 8.6 flashes per square mile. Florida, as you might suspect, ranked number one with 26.3 flashes per square mile. Our neighbor to the south, North Carolina ranked 17th. West Virginia one-upped us and ranked 20th, Maryland was one behind us at 22nd.

Fast facts:

More people are hurt by lightning than by tornadoes or hurricanes.

Lightning bolts are five times hotter than the surface of the Sun!

One strike has between 100 million and 1 billion volts of electricity.

Wait at least 30 minutes after you hear the last roll of thunder before returning to your outdoor activities.

Lightning Myths

Severe Storms Pound the Commonwealth

Severe thunderstorms with large hail and strong wind gusts affected much of the state today, making it two days in a row in some areas. Wind damage was reported in the form of downed trees in many counties, with significant damage reported in the town of Stanley in Page county due to a possible tornado. Golf ball sized hail was reported in the following locations: Innsbrook, Glen Allen, Kilmarnock, Tappahannock, Fredericksburg, 2 miles north of Atlee in Hanover county, and just north of Mechanicsville. Tennis ball sized hail was reported 3 miles east of Dunavant in Spotsylvania county, and baseball sized hail was reported in Stanley in Page county. A funnel cloud was spotted near Norge and Lightfoot down in the Williamsburg area.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 p.m.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for approximately the Northern two-thirds of Virginia, as seen here:


Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, hail larger than nickels, and torrential rainfall will develop and move through the state this afternoon and tonight as a cold front progresses. Any of these storms will also be capable of frequent lightning and flooding rains.
--Carrie

Another Round Of Severe Weather Wed

Another round of severe weather is likely in the Commonwealth Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the state. Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon, then progress southeast as the cold front advances into Central Virginia. These storms will be capable of damaging winds, large hail, and also heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding, especially in northern parts of the state that received heavy rainfall Tuesday.

Severe Storms Produce Large Hail/Damaging Winds in VA

Here are the latest storm reports from the line of severe weather that moved through north-central and northeast VA: Trees down 3 miles SW of Roseville in Stafford county, trees down in Chancellorsville in Spotsylvania county, trees down 5 miles NE of Ladysmith in Caroline county, powerlines down in King George county, trees down in Post Oak in Spotsylvania county, ping pong sized hail 4 miles east of Lahore in Orange county, nickel-sized hail 3 miles NNE of Racoon Ford in Culpeper county, and nickel-sized hail 1 mile south of King George in King George county.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 8 p.m.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of North-central and Northeast Virginia until 8 p.m. Tuesday.

The main threats are for large hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon, and move southeast this evening at about 30-40 mph. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Hot With Chance Storms Tues-Thur

A hot and humid air mass will be in place across the Commonwealth Tuesday and Wednesday, which will lead to isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the area. A few of the strongest storms across north-central Virginia into the Northern Neck today may be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.




The same setup will occur Wednesday as well, as a cold front begins moving toward the state. A few of the strongest storms Wednesday may become severe in the northern half of Virginia closest to the approaching front. Hail and winds will again be the threats.

More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances will exist in the state Thursday as that cold front passes.

Before that cold front moves through the state Thursday, high temperatures will reach the low 90's in Central Virginia both Tuesday and Wednesday. The last time Richmond had highs 90+ was April 27. You might remember that Spring mini-heat wave we had, when highs in Richmond were:
92 degrees April 25
91 degrees April 26
91 degrees April 27

In May, we flirted with 90-degree temperatures, but fell just shy with the highest high at RIC reaching 89 degrees on May 9.

Records to beat for today and tomorrow are both 98 degrees at RIC, which does not appear likely.
--Carrie

Hurricanes Categorized By Wind Only

Monday, June 1 marks the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Activity is nil today in the tropics, but when we do get our first named, landfalling storm this year, you will notice some changes to the way forecasters describe possible impacts of a hurricane. Now, we will only refer to a category storm based on its maximum sustained winds. No longer will we categorize storms based on central pressure or possible storm surge. Check out the National Hurricane Center's Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

This change is appropriate, considering the majority of landfalling storms have not caused the predicted storm surge for its category. Other factors impact storm surge, including the local shape of the coastline, the slope of the shelf leading up to the coast, the angle at which a storm makes landfall, and forward speed and size of a storm. The SLOSH model is one tool used to provide localized storm surge forecasts taking into account some of these mentioned factors.