See the Moon and Jupiter

Skies in central Virginia will clear by mid-evening, allowing everyone to see the moon and the planet Jupiter close together in the sky. The above picture was actually taken yesterday when the two were even closer together. The photograph was taken in Hungary by Monika Landy-Gybnar. Tonight Jupiter will be just below (south) of the moon. You can't miss the pair, they will be the two brightest objects in the night sky.

Coolest Mornings Of Season

The coolest mornings so far this season are expected in Central Virginia Thursday and Friday mornings, when temperatures will likely fall into the 40's. Drier air continues to filter into the Commonwealth Wednesday on the backside of a low-pressure system that is exiting to the northeast. (See map below for Low exiting into Canada northeast of the Great Lakes)

Winds will become light overnight with clear skies, allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Lower-lying spots may become cooler than other surrounding locations in the morning. The coldest part of the state Thursday morning will be west of I-81 into West Virginia, where Frost Advisories are in effect for overnight into Thursday morning. There, temperatures are expected to dip into the mid-30's for several hours.

Tuesday Morning Mountain Waves

West to Northwest winds being lifted over the mountains in West Virginia and western Virginia have helped create a cloud formation known as "Mountain Waves" or "Lee Waves," because these are clouds that form in the lee of the mountains. When the air is orographically lifted on the "windward" side of the mountain, the air condenses and forms a cloud. On the other side of the mountain, the air begins to descend, and the sky is clear there. But an oscillation has begun in the atmosphere, so the air rises again, condenses, and forms another row of clouds on the leeward side of the mountain.

This oscillation can continue for miles, and we are seeing that early this morning in the Commonwealth! Watch the visible satellite loop here.

Monday Rainfall & Severe Reports

The strong cold front that moved through the Commonwealth Monday afternoon and evening did kick off some strong to severe thunderstorms in the region with locally heavy rainfall. Here is a snapshot of the storm-total precipitation:

(Radar image from Wakefield at NWS)

The highest rain totals were in northern Sussex County, with up to 4"-5" in isolated spots. More widespread totals were in the 2"-3" range in the swath of yellow.

Here are the severe weather reports from Monday:

Severe weather reports included Quarter to Golf-ball Size Hail in Boydton in Mecklenburg County, and also tree damage in South Boston, Ringgold, and Nathalie in south-central Virginia.

Blustery Monday

A low-pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes today and into New England will bring blustery winds to the Commonwealth from the Southwest at 15-25mph. Here is a snapshot of the surface at 2PM this afternoon:

The red shade is the warm air ahead of the cold front, associated with the surface low pressure in the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient associated with this low is pretty tight, which will lead to the sometimes blustery winds in Central Virginia today at 15-25mph. The strongest winds, though, will be closer to the Low, where Wind Advisories are in effect today across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Winds in the warned regions will be 25-45mph, with some higher gusts possible.

In addition to the wind, there will be a slight chance for a few late afternoon and evening showers and storms east of I-95 and into Southeast Virginia. Because of all the wind shear, though, and the drier air rapidly moving into the state, storm chances are low.

As this system tracked through the Northern Plains Sunday, here are some of the max wind gusts reported:

North Dakota:

Dickinson 59 MPH
Hettinger 58MPH
Killdeer 56MPH
St Anthony 54MPH
Garrison 53MPH
Jamestown 53MPH
Williston 51MPH
Minot 51MPH
Watford city 50MPH
Bismarck 8N 50MPH
Minot AFB 49MPH
Bismarck Airport 48MPH

South Dakota:

Chamberlain 55 MPH

Huron 53 MPH

Madison 53 MPH

Yankton 48 MPH

Sioux Falls 47 MPH

Brookings 46 MPH

Mitchell 46 MPH

Minnesota:

Windom 45 MPH

Slayton 45 MPH

Marshall 44 MPH

Worthington 43 MPH

Pipestone 43 MPH

Jackson 39 MPH

Luverne 39 MPH

Iowa:

Spencer 46 MPH

Storm Lake 45 MPH

Le Mars 44 MPH

Orange City 44 MPH

Sheldon 43 MPH

Cherokee 40 MPH

Summer Recap

Although we are almost a week into fall, I want to briefly look back at this summer.

TEMPERATURES
First of all, temperatures were warmer than normal for most of the state. The same could be said for most of the Deep South and West Coast. However, it was an extremely cool summer for folks in the Midwest, especially in Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas.



RAINFALL
Although some parts of the Commonwealth experienced wetter than normal conditions, most of central Virginia was below normal for rainfall. It was also dry in South Carolina, Georgia and especially Texas. Most of New England and parts of the Midwest experienced a wet summer.

Showers Linger This Morning

A couple showers are still moving across the area this morning. These showers will quickly dissipate and most of Virginia will be dry by late morning. A stray shower could pop up north of I-64 this afternoon, but the chances are looking very slim.

Heavy Rain Expected For Parts Of VA

After sifting through the latest data, it looks like rain totals will range from 1 to 3" across the area. The purple and reds that you see on the map below indicate 2 to 3", while the blues are around 1" or less.

Rain Headed This Way

A much-needed soaking rain will overspread the area late this evening and last into early Sunday morning. I will break down the forecast to help you plan the rest of your day:

3 PM: Isolated light showers (40%)...68°
6 PM: Scattered showers (70%)...64°
9 PM: Rain likely (90%)...61°

Tropical Depression Eight

Tropical Depression Eight has formed in the Atlantic. More than likely this will remain a depression over the next couple days as it slowly drifts to the northwest.

Rainfall Overnight, Showers Friday

As a cold front moved through the state overnight, some heavy rain fell in spots, especially from the Farmville to Petersburg areas and southward into Southeastern Virginia. Most places picked up less than half an inch, but a few spots picked up 1" to 2", based on radar estimates. Here are some estimates:
Farmville: 1.4"
Petersburg/Colonial Heights: 2.4"
Portsmouth: 1.6"
Williamsburg: 1.1"
Charlottesville: 0.8"
Victoria: 0.6"
Richmond: 0.5"

Scattered showers will continue to move into Central Virginia Friday morning, but should wind down from North to South Friday afternoon.

Virginia State Fair Opens Today!

The Virginia State Fair opens today at 10 a.m., when skies should be variably cloudy with warm and humid conditions expected today. With all the low-level moisture in place during the peak afternoon heating, scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible in Central Virginia. It won't be raining everywhere all the time; these will be the hit-or-miss variety of convection. Just keep a slicker or umbrella handy today if you're going to the Fair. Here is an hour-by-hour forecast today:

10AM: Variably cloudy. 79 degrees.

Noon: 20% chance isolated shower. 83 degrees.

5PM: 30% chance scattered showers/storms. 87 degrees.

9PM: 30% chance scattered showers/storms. 76 degrees.

A cold front will move through the state overnight, putting an end to our unseasonably warm and humid weather. Rain chances look slim for Friday at the Fair, but a fast-moving upper-level trough will bring another opportunity for showers and storms Saturday night (most likely after dark) through Sunday morning (likely ending by lunchtime). Scattered showers and storms will also be possible in Central Virginia Monday.

Enjoy the Fair!

State Fair Forecast

The State Fair begins tomorrow, September 24th, and the running joke has been, "If it's Fair time, it's going to rain." I've heard so many people make this remark with a chuckle over the past several weeks. But the first couple of days of the Fair look pretty good! Only a few isolated showers are possible Thursday, and afternoon high temperatures will be quite warm in the upper 80's. A cold front will move into the state early Friday, though, putting high temperatures through the weekend in the upper-70's. Most of Saturday looks dry as well, before a quick-moving upper wave swings through the region Saturday night into Sunday morning bringing rain chances to the state. So if you have plans to be at the Fair Saturday morning into early afternoon, or Sunday afternoon, it will likely not be raining during those times.

We'll be providing updates on the Fair forecast through the end of the Fair, which is October 4. Remember, the Fair is at a new location this year, at The Meadow Event Park at I-95 exit 98, next to Kings Dominion. Gates are open from 10AM-9PM. For more details on daily events, check here.

Early Snow in Colorado

Earlier today (while it was still technically Summer) parts of Colorado saw a significant early season snowfall. Areas around Denver and Colorado Springs saw between 1 and 3 inches of snow, while totals reached 14" near Conifer! The snow was due to a potent upper-level low that will slowly move eastward while weakening over the next several days, bringing central Virginia a decent chance of rain late Saturday into Sunday.

First Day Of Fall Tuesday

Tuesday at 5:18 p.m. Eastern, Fall will officially begin for the Northern Hemisphere! In case you missed the previous blog entry, here's another look at what the Autumnal Equinox is:
So at 5:18 p.m. Eastern, the Sun's incoming solar rays will be directly over the Equator as the Earth tilts the Northern Hemisphere away from the most intense solar rays, moving into Fall and Winter. Meanwhile, the Earth's tilt brings the Southern Hemisphere back into the Sun's most intense rays, transitioning to Spring and Summer.

Fall is my favorite season of all. I love the transitional nature of the weather patterns, the changing leaves, and the cooler, shorter days. It may be early in the season still, but Fall color is already showing up through parts of New England and the Upper Midwest. Check it out:

Where you see "Low" color right now, foliage color should be peaking within the next few weeks.


Here is a map of the typical foliage peak times in the U.S.

(Map: Wikipedia Commons)

Colors will not peak in Central Virginia until Late October/Early November. But a few trees are already showing some color here in Richmond, but these are mostly trees that were damaged or stressed earlier this year, and are thus more prone to "peaking" early and losing leaves prematurely.

Chilly This Morning

There was definitely a chill in the air this morning, but it definitely wasn't as cold here as it was in parts of New England. The shades of purple on the map below indicate lows in the lower 30s!

Persistent Clouds

The Commonwealth is divided this Saturday, between plenty of sun in the northern half of the state, and persistent cloud-cover over the southern half closer to the cold front that moved through overnight. This front is associated with an upper-level trough that dug into the Northeast Friday. At the base of this trough, drier air is evident in the water vapor image below, as indicated by the orange-red shades (drier, warmer air from higher up in the atmosphere sinking). Notice that where we have sunny skies today is right where that dry air at the upper-levels is present.

Cold Front Overnight

A cold front will move quickly through the Commonwealth overnight, turning winds to the Northeast and bringing in drier air. Skies will become mostly sunny Saturday with this drier air, and temperatures will remain comfortably in the upper 70's to around 80 degrees. With this drier air, low-level moisture will be swept south of us, and rain chances should hold off until late Sunday.

Beautiful Sunrise

I caught this sunrise on our Skytracker camera out at the airport. The sun briefly peeked under the clouds, making for a gorgeous start to the day. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through today, but the chance for rain will be very slim.

Hurricane Ivan: Five Years Ago

September 16-17 marks the five year anniversary of Hurricane Ivan, the strongest storm of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ivan made landfall in the early morning hours of September 16 at Gulf Shores, AL with 120mph winds (Cat 3). Ivan's remnants tracked toward the Commonwealth on the 17th, when 40 tornadoes were spawned in Virginia in a single day, including one strong F3 tornado. This holds the record for the most tornadoes in a single day in Virginia! This one day of tornadoes also broke the previous Virginia record for most tornadoes in an entire year: 31 tornadoes in 2003.

(NWS PHOTOS: F3 Tornado damage in southern Fauquier Co, VA)

Ivan's remnants then passed east of the Commonwealth into the Atlantic, taking an unusual turn southward (see track below). The remnants reorganized after passing southern Florida back into the Gulf, and made a second landfall in Cameron, Louisiana as Tropical Depression Ivan.

(Image: NASA & NHC)

Many of Virginia's tornadoes historically have come from tropical systems. Here is a list of Hurricanes spawning tornadoes in the Commonwealth (compiled by the Virginia Department of Emergency Management):

September 4, 1915: 1 small tornado
October 29, 1917 2 small tornadoes
September 5, 1935: 5-7 tornadoes; 3 dead, 21 injured
August 31, 1952 "Able": 1 strong F2 tornado
July 10, 1959 "Cindy": 3 small F0-F1 tornadoes
September 29, 1959 "Gracie": 3 strong F3 tornadoes; 12 dead, 13 injured
September 10, 1960 "Donna": 1 strong F2 tornado
September 5, 1979 "David": 8 tornadoes, 6 strong ones; 1 dead and 19 injured
July 25, 1985 "Bob": 2 small F0 tornadoes and 1 strong F3 tornado
August 17, 1994 "Beryl": 1 strong F2 tornado injuring 10 people
October 5, 1995 "Opal": 3 small F0-F1 tornadoes
July 12, 1996 "Bertha": 5 small F0-F1 tornadoes injuring 9 people
September 6, 1996 "Fran": 2 small F0 tornadoes
July 24, 1997 "Danny": 3 small F0-F1 tornadoes
September 4, 1999 "Dennis": 1 strong F2 tornado injuring 6 people
Sept. 18, 2003: "Isabel": spawned one F0 tornado
Aug. 30, 2004: “Gaston” spawned 13 F0 tornadoes
Sept. 8 2004: “Frances” spawned 16 F0/F1 tornadoes and one strong F2 tornado
Sept. 17, 2004: “Ivan” spawned 29 F0/F1 tornadoes, 10 strong F2 tornadoes and one strong F3 tornado
Sept. 28, 2004: “Jeanne” spawned one F1 tornado
July 7-8, 2005: “Cindy” spawned seven F1 tornadoes

We Need The Rain!

It's been very dry over the past two weeks. The majority of the area has seen less than one inch of rainfall.

Rivers and streams are running low, especially to the west of I-95.

Showers will be spotty and mainly light for today and tomorrow, so it doesn't look like we will get that much rain. A larger storm system is headed this way for next week and could potentially bring us more substantial rainfall. Let's keep our fingers crossed!

First Day Of Fall A Week Away

The Autumnal Equinox is mere days away (Tuesday, September 22 at 5:18 p.m. Eastern, to be exact...see the above diagram for what the Equinox means), and today may have just been the last true hurrah of Summer for us with our high of 86 degrees and mostly sunny skies. A cool front will move through the state overnight, turning our winds from the north and bringing in slightly milder air for the rest of this week. At the same time, cloud-cover will continue to increase from the southwest ahead of a low-pressure system currently stationary over Louisiana and Arkansas. Gulf moisture will stream into our state the next several days as a result of the flow around that low system, and we will consequently have the opportunity for showers. This doesn't appear to be a heavy rain event, but there is some indication that showers will not only be around through Friday, but possibly also through the weekend and into early next week. At the very least, it appears Saturday and Sunday will still have a good bit of cloud-cover. We'll keep you posted on the timing of rain chances.

Hint of Fall

Per Aaron's previous blog, here is a viewer-submitted photo of the first hint of Fall colors. Thanks to Joanne Nelson from Kinsale, VA for sending us this picture!

Are Trees Starting to Change?

I snapped this photo of a tree in our parking lot. The leaves are already changing to a deep red...and it's only mid September! Are you seeing fall colors in your neighborhood? Send me a photo: ajustus@wtvr.com

Light Rain In Hanover County

Isolated light showers have developed in Hanover County this afternoon. These showers are moving to the south, so RIR could see some light rain in the next few minutes. It won't last long, so I don't expect them to delay the race for too long.

A stray shower will be possible for the rest of this evening across most of central Virginia. In addition, grab a jacket before you head out this evening - temps will drop into the mid 60s after sunset!

Tranquil Weather in the Commonwealth

The weather pattern over the Mid-Atlantic will change over the next few days, bringing a stretch of sunny and warm days to central Virginia through the middle part of next week. A subtle upper-level wave will aid in the development of a few clouds Saturday afternoon and perhaps a couple of isolated showers, but most locations will remain dry. Northwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere for several straight days will result in warm and dry afternoons, and pleasant overnight temperatures. The pattern will break down by Wednesday, bringing more clouds and and a chance of rain back to the area. Enjoy the stretch of fine weather while it lasts!

Drizzly Morning

Drizzle and scattered light rain showers are moving westward through much of Central Virginia early Thursday morning, keeping the roads wet and requiring drivers to use their windshield wipers. The precipitation is not heavy, but it's just enough to need to allow a little extra time on your morning commute. CBS 6 Traffic Reporter Amanda Meadows says that drivers are already slowing down in the usual "hot spots" because of the wet roads and light rain.

I expect the mist and light rain to continue through the morning commute, with a reprieve from precipitation around the middle of the day today, before more scattered showers move in from the coastal low pressure system that has brought us rain through the week.

Fred The 2nd Major Hurricane Of 2009

Hurricane Fred continued to strengthen Wednesday, becoming the second major hurricane of the 2009 season. As of mid-day Wednesday, Fred has maximum sustained winds up to 120mph now, which makes it a Category Three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Fred is in the far eastern Atlantic, and poses no threat to land.

Fred is unusual because of its strength and location. Hurricane Fred is only the third major hurricane on record located so far east in the Atlantic Basin (East of 35W), and it is the strongest hurricane on record this far south and east. The National Hurricane Center has reliable tropical observations back to the 1960s, upon which they base those statistics.

Wet Start Back To School

Many Virginia schools are back in session today, and perhaps the dreary, rainy weather fits the mood of reluctant students? In any case, this is beneficial, widespread rain for much of Central and Eastern Virginia. Periods of rain will continue off-and-on Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks from Eastern North Carolina into Southeastern Virginia, with the highest rain totals expected along and east of I-95. The low will linger in the region through Thursday, keeping rain chances in our forecast.

Since Monday afternoon, 0.81" have fallen at Richmond International Airport, with half of that this Tuesday morning.

Here are some other tallies so far:
Chesapeake 5.67"
Norfolk 5.44"
Virginia Beach 4.92"
Portsmouth 4.57"
Williamsburg 3.28"
Jarratt/Purdy 1.2"
Wakefield 1.1"
Staunton 0.56"
Ashland 0.5"
Fredericksburg 0.3"
Emporia 0.1"

The highest rain totals through this evening will continue to be east of I-95, where flooding may still occur. In Central Virginia, drizzle and mist will linger through the afternoon. Tomorrow morning, areas of fog will likely develop in the region after such a soaking rain.

Fred Becomes Season's 6th Named Storm

Tropical depression Seven became tropical storm Fred tonight as maximum sustained winds increased to near 40 mph. Prevailing winds in the eastern Atlantic should steer Fred northwestward and eventually northward, keeping the storm well away from any significant landmasses.

Flood Watch in Effect

A flood watch is in effect for eastern and southeastern Virginia through Tuesday afternoon. An additional 3-4 inches of rain will be possible in the watch area. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches will be possible in counties bordering the watch area to the west.

Labor Day Beach Washout

A low pressure system continues to hug the North Carolina coastline this Labor Day, overspreading rain to most of eastern North Carolina and now into southeastern Virginia. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall tonight into Tuesday primarily east of I-95. Along Virginia's Atlantic beaches today, dangerous rip currents are occurring with the Northeast wind of 10-20mph.

Below is a forecast of rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning. Notice the highest rain totals (up to 7") will occur near Virginia Beach and in far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina, closest to the track of the low pressure system. Along and east of I-95, rain totals of 1"-5" are possible.

Heavy Rain Potential

This next storm system could be a major rainmaker. I just got done looking at some of the newest data and it is becoming more and more consistent. Here is a map of forecasted rain totals through Tuesday evening. Notice how our area is hit the hardest:


(00Z NAM 48 hour rain forecast)

Rain totals could easily reach 3 to 5" within the areas of bright orange and yellow. Some isolated areas could even receive more! If this pans out, then we will be on the lookout for some possible flooding in some parts of the state. This is still a developing situation that we are carefully monitoring. Any slight shift in the track of this storm will greatly impact the rain totals.

Showers Possible On Labor Day

If you have a choice between going outdoors today or tomorrow, I would recommend choosing today. A batch of showers has blossomed off the coast of the Carolinas and is moving northward. Initially it looked like most of this rain would move off the coast, but now latest data is pulling these showers into parts of our area. The best chances for rain will be in the southeast corner of the state, however a few showers will also be possible for most of central Virginia.

This is not all bad news - we definitely need some rain in the area!

Viewer Photo

Angela Hawk sent in this photo of a sunset with the CBS 6 broadcast tower in the foreground. Nice!

Isolated Shower To The West

An isolated shower has popped up in southern Albemarle and northern Buckingham counties. It is moving very slowly to the east/southeast at around 2 to 3 mph (almost stationary). There has been no lightning with this shower, but you can expect some moderate rainfall if you live in those areas. More than likely this will dissipate over the next couple hours.

Is Fred Developing In The Atlantic?

Even though the remnants of Erika continue to diminish, we'll keep watching that area for any redevelopment (which right now looks unlikely). A strong tropical wave is currently moving across the Eastern Atlantic and could eventually strengthen to Tropical Storm Fred. We'll be keeping an eye on this as well!

Rip Current Risk At VA Beach

While we continue to have Northeasterly winds into the Commonwealth, this creates a rip current risk along our Atlantic beaches. This is an onshore flow, which enhances the risk for rip currents. If you're headed out to the beach today through Labor Day, be aware that there is a higher likelihood of rip currents, especially near piers, jetties, and sandbars. Saturday might not be as bad as today and Sunday, because wind speeds will not be quite as strong. But expect Northeast winds 15-25mph most of the weekend, and waves every six to eight seconds.

Erika Now A Remnant Low

Wind shear was too strong for Erika to survive. It is now a weak low pressure that is moving to the west at 7 mph. More than likely this storm will continue to dissipate over the next couple days. We will keep watching the remnants of Erika and will let you know if anything else changes.

Erika Likely To Weaken To A Depression

Tropical Storm Erika remains weak and disorganized Thursday, with maximum sustained winds near 40mph. Erika will begin interacting with the various landmasses from Puerto Rico, to Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba over the next several days, which would alone be enough to weaken the storm a little. But, there are other inhibiting factors as well, including upper-level west and southwesterly shear, and also drier air at the mid-levels. All of these mean Tropical Storm Erika will likely be forced to continue weakening to a Tropical Depression, and will have very little chance to re-strengthen early next week as what is left of Erika meanders to the Bahamas.

Erika Barely A Tropical Storm

Erika continues to drift to the west at around 10 mph. It will turn slightly to the northwest as it passes over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. This should weaken the storm even further. If Erika survives this trek across land (and the strong wind shear in place), then it could possibly strengthen. However, the chances for this are very slim.