Weather Update - Sunday 11:30 PM

There weren't any drastic changes in the latest data to make me change my mind about the current forecast. I'm still expecting this storm to track close enough to us to give us a chance for a mix of heavy wet snow and a little rain. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing during the entire event, so that will eat away at our accumulation potential. Also, if temps remain above 35, then this will be mainly a rain event.



I still think it's too early to start giving a specific forecast for snow totals, but I still think the greatest accumulation potential will remain south of our area.

Flurries Possible This Afternoon

There is *just* enough instability in the air to support isolated sprinkles and flurries across the area. Luckily temperatures are in the mid and upper 40s, so all flakes will melt on impact. I expect skies to quickly clear after sunset.

Weather Update 7:30 AM Sunday

The picture is becoming clearer as this storm approaches our area. As I've said from the start, surface temperatures will be key to the forecast. Right now it looks like temps will hover just above the freezing mark as the system passes Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will eat away at our accumulation potential. In fact, history has proven (i.e. last Wednesday night) that when surface temperatures climb to 35 or 36 degrees, we will see snow change to rain. This is a very fine line that we have to forecast and is the reason why I'm going to hold off until later this evening to speculate possible snow totals in our area.



March snow storms are actually more common than you would think. Here is a list of a few I found at the following link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/climate/RIC_Climate_Records.pdf

Looking Even Further Back

Here are the maps from last year's big snow on March 1st and 2nd where the metro received roughly 6 to 10" of snow- this will help to put things in perspective. Notice the rigorous upper low in the south (moisture source and lift) merging forces with the trough to the north (which provided the cold air). This system started as rain, then switched to heavy snow. You can find these maps at the folowing link:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

A Look Back At Previous Storms

As another potentially massive snow storm threatens the Mid-Atlantic, I think now is a good time to look back on our two previous storms and see what kind of tracks they took. Here are the upper air and surface maps for our January 29th storm which blanketed our area with a powdery snow.





Now here are the maps from February 5th and 6th, where a storm brought a mix of wet snow and heavy rain early on, then heavy snow at the end.

Windy Friday!

Winds overnight in Central Virginia remained a bit gusty in the 20-30 mph while a strong Nor'easter continues to spin over Connecticut. The low will drift a little west over northern New Jersey today, keeping a strong flow from the west and northwest over Virginia. While the low remains in our vicinity today, there may be snow showers in primarily northern Virginia and the Northern Neck, but with surface temperatures climbing into the 40's today, it will be too warm for any of that snow to stick around. This storm will gradually weaken this weekend, relaxing the tight pressure gradient over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Storm Potential Next Week

Everyone on the blog is already talking about it, so I may as well address the potential storm for next Tuesday into Wednesday. Data is still inconsistent with this thing. Even the most reliable computer forecast has been dramatically shifting the track northward each day. With that said, let's talk about what is consistent with the data: a low will develop near the Gulf Coast on Monday night and head to the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday.


As with any storm moving in from the south - track is everything! Here are the possible scenarios:

1) This storm hugs the coastline and we see mainly rain with possibly some wet snow or sleet farther inland.

2) The storm stays far enough off the coast that we will see mostly snow.

3) The storm tracks too far south and we see nothing.


Beyond the track, another key to the forecast will be temperatures at the surface and mid levels. If the storm's core tracks nearby, it will pull in air off the coast where water temperatures are near 40 degrees. This will increase our chances for wet snow and rain. It also could mean some warmer air nudging in at the mid levels, which would increase our chances for sleet.

One other key to the forecast will be the track of the large storm system that is currently spinning over New England. It will have a dramatic impact on the track of next week's potential storm.

These are things we will be watching over the next few days as this situation slowly evolves. More updates will be coming soon!

Windy Thursday & Friday

Winds are picking up Thursday in Central Virginia as a strengthening low pressure center east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline tracks northward into New England. While this low remains in our vicinity, winds are expected to remain gusty in the 25-35 mph range in Central Virginia. There is a High Wind Watch for north-central and west-central Virginia, where wind gusts may be as strong as 60 mph. These types of strong wind gusts could certainly cause power outages in those locations. In Southwest Virginia (to the west of the Wind Advisory), that is a High Wind Warning, for similar conditions.

Precip Ends, Dry Air Moves In

Drier air has been moving into Central Virginia through the morning hours, ending our precipitation chances in Central Virginia. In fact, cloud-cover has rapidly been moving out of the area as well, with mostly sunny skies now!

The strong coastal low to our east continues to track northward away from the Commonwealth, overspreading heavy snow for much of New England this morning through Friday. Totals of a foot or more are expected in parts of New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York. Winds will also be strong in New England, creating blowing snow and near-whiteout conditions at times. If you have travel plans through the region, you can go to 511 to check the roads, or go here to get the latest on airports.

Weather Update 8 a.m.

All Winter Weather Advisories in our area have been allowed to expire early, as precipitation winds down in Central Virginia. Only a few light rain/snow showers are in the eastern Peninsulas at this time, with light flurries in southwest Virginia south of Roanoke. Most of the snow in our region is now either to the northeast from Delaware to New England, or to our south in Central North Carolina. Drier air continues to move into Central Virginia, limiting our precipitation chances.

Weather Update 4 a.m.

The Winter Weather Advisory for much of Central Virginia has been allowed to expire as the rain and snow showers in Central Virginia overnight are winding down. Sprinkles and drizzle may linger early this morning in the area, but any significant precipitation is over. Fortunately overnight, temperatures remained above freezing, which meant any of the snow that did fall in spots was unable to stick to the roads, or even to the grass in many cases. This makes for a wet morning, but not an icy one. A few light snow showers are possible in the area this morning, but no accumulation is expected.
Winds are expected to pick up later this morning from the Northwest as a strengthening low off the coast of North Carolina tracks northward today. Winds will be in the 20-30 mph range, with higher gusts, especially closer to the Chesapeake Bay, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Winds will remain gusty Friday as well.

Weather Update 11:48 PM

Spotty snow showers will be possible tonight and into very early tomorrow morning. Temperatures continue to hover above freezing, so most of the snow will melt on impact. We are expecting about an inch or less for most of central Virginia. Most of this will be on grassy surfaces and anything detached from the ground.

New Watches/Advisories Issued

A winter weather advisory is now in effect for north-central Virginia, and a winter storm watch is in effect for the counties in the Northern Neck. The Richmond Metro Area is currently seeing light rain, with a few communities west of I-95 reporting a few snowflakes mixing in. Snow is being generated in the cloud layer, but is melting in an above-freezing layer near the surface. This layer will become shallower as the afternoon and evening wears on, allowing snow to reach the surface. Accumulations will be limited to grassy surfaces, as surface temps will still be several degrees above freezing.

Snow Forecast Update

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from late tonight through early Friday morning for the Northern Neck, where persistent snow showers are expected overnight through early Friday as a strong low pressure system spins offshore and gradually tracks northward. In the Watch area, 2" or more of accumulation is expected, with some spots potentially receiving near 5" of accumulation. In the rest of Central Virginia, 1"-2"of snow is expected, with some spots potentially receiving near 3", and areas into the Piedmont less than an inch.
Mid-day Wednesday, rain showers are expanding into Central Virginia, with snow in Southwest Virginia. A changeover to snow is expected in all of Central Virginia just after dark, with snow showers continuing through the Thursday morning commute. Surface temperatures will not fall to freezing until after Midnight tonight, which means most of the snow will primarily accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. The roads will remain wet tonight until pre-dawn Thursday. At that time, some light accumulation on the roads is possible, which could impact your morning commute.

Winter Weather Update

Two upper-level low pressure centers will merge into one very strong system over the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday. The southern low brought snow to central Texas Tuesday and will weaken as it moves northeast on Wednesday. The second low is moving southeast out of the eastern Great Lakes region, and will strengthen as it heads this way. Lift from both of these systems will bring rain and snow to central Virginia Wednesday afternoon, with a transition to all snow Wednesday night. The snow will initially fall into surface temperatures several degrees above freezing, resulting in little to no accumulation through the evening hours. As the near-surface air saturates late Wednesday night, temperatures will fall into the range of 32 to 35 degrees, promoting an accumulation of snow, primarily on grassy and elevated surfaces. Recent temperatures in the 50s and low 60s have warmed street temperatures to a point that most roads should remain wet. Snow accumulations of around one inch will be possible across the metro area, with higher totals possible to the east and northeast. Strong winds will develop as the coastal low deepens just east of the eastern shore of Virginia on Thursday, and moves slowly northward up the coast.

Light Fog Tuesday Morning

After Monday's rain, and continued snow melt, there is a good bit of moisture in the ground to produce morning fog today. Visibilities have been a little reduced in Central Virginia, but the fog is not widespread dense fog, as you can see by the snapshot from our Dominion Cam in Downtown Richmond this morning. Fog and cloud cover will gradually decrease through the day, becoming partly cloudy later this afternoon.

Stormy Pattern Headed This Way?

During the winter, we are always looking for long range trends. El Nino has impacted our weather significantly so far this winter. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is another weather pattern that greatly affects the East Coast. Here are a couple links to read more about NAO:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/AO_NAO.htm

Basically, when NAO is negative, we will see an extended period of cold weather...something we have endured for most of this month. Latest data is suggesting that NAO will trend towards neutral, which means that it could get stormy for the first couple weeks of March (in like a lion?). We'll keep tracking it and keep you posted!

What A Day!

This was the first dry Saturday we have seen since January 23rd, I hope you enjoyed it! Here is a shot from our Skytracker camera in downtown Richmond during sunset...gorgeous!

Beautiful Weekend In Store!

Friday should be a great start to the weekend, with highs breaking above 50 degrees for the first time since the end of January. You may recall that was right before the big snowstorm in Central Virginia occurred the last two days of January. All that old snow pack, plus more new snow in February, and reinforcing shots of colder air in a deep trough over the region much of this month have kept high temperatures down in the 30's and 40's. Before Thursday, the highest temperature this month was 44 degrees, which only occurred twice (the 1st and the 11th). Enjoy the highs around 50 degrees this weekend, as it does appear our pattern will shift back to cooler weather during next week, with the potential for more winter weather by the end of the week.

Hurricane Scale Tweaked

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which has been a mainstay in hurricane preparedness since being introduced in 1973 to the public, has been tweaked over the past year to account for discrepancies in realized storm surge flooding from hurricanes impacting the coast. The new name is the "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale," which emphasizes a focus on wind as the categorizing feature instead of also being tied to expected storm surge. However, forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center for approaching hurricanes will still include mention of expected surges in the affected regions, which vary depending on a combination of factors: "the storm's intensity, size, motion and barometric pressure, as well as the depth of near-shore waters and local topographical features." (NOAA press release Feb 17, 2010). You can read a detailed explanation of the new scale here.

Snow Cover Check

The snow may still be covering much of our state, but its days are numbered. You may have noticed much more grass (okay, so it's in its Winter state, but at least we can see it!) this week as sunny spots get enough sunshine and afternoon warming to melt away the snow. The southeast half of Virginia is experiencing the best snow melt right now, which makes sense considering this is where the snow is thinner.

With no other snowstorms expected in the near future, and the potential for rain late Sunday into Monday, expect that snow cover line to gradually recede to the northwest. You may remember that after our December 18-19, 2009 snowstorm, snow cover remained on the ground in some spots for a month. This time, we've had multiple rounds of snow to contend with, so parts of the state are likely in for another long thawing process.

Light Snow Showers Early Tuesday In Northern VA

Early this Tuesday morning, light snow showers and flurries are moving southeast through north-central Virginia into the D.C. Metro area, and also into the Northern Neck and parts of the Middle Peninsula. This is light snow, but could lead to a half-inch of accumulation where the snow showers keep tracking over the same locations. Counties affected: Caroline, Westmoreland, Spotsylvania, Essex, Richmond, King George, Stafford. These snow showers will exit the state in the next couple of hours as the upper low tracks into Pennsylvania.

Snow In Parts Of Virginia Today

Snow accumulation will be possible in the Winter Weather Advisory counties highlighted above. Generally 1"-2" will be possible along and east of I-81, with up to 3" closer to the West Virginia border. The rest of the state not included in the Advisory will likely receive only rain, but some snowflakes are possible to mix in with the rain at times, yet will not lead to accumulation. Surface temperatures in this region will be above freezing while the precipitation falls.

Long Range Outlook

Temperatures have been below normal for every single day so far this month. We aren't the only ones experiencing a cold February. Cold air has engulfed most of the Southeast United States. On the flip side, things have been warmer than normal across the western half of the country.

It looks like we will be stuck in this pattern through at least February 23rd, then things will start to change by the end of the month. The polar jet stream will loosen its grip on the East coast and allow some of the warmer air from the west to move into our area. Until then, temps will generally stay near or below normal (average high is 49).

I've done a lot of calculations, and if the long range forecast holds true, this could end up being the 9th or 10th coldest February EVER. Here is the link for the entire list:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/climate/special/RIC_AVE_T.pdf

Monday's Forecast

It looks like most of the rain will hold off until tomorrow afternoon and early evening. A few wet snow flakes could briefly mix with the rain, but with temps well above freezing, they will quickly melt on impact. I'm expecting minor accumulations in western and northern Virginia, here is the forecast:

Update On Monday's Storm

It still looks like temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 30s and low 40s across the region. We could see a brief period of wet snow followed by a cold rain Monday afternoon and evening. We could then see another brief mix as colder air wraps into the back of the system.

We are not expecting significant accumulations across central Virginia, though northern and western sections could pick up an inch or two. The brunt of the storm will hit West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Upstate New York, where 6 to 10" are expected.

Today's Snow Totals

Although metro Richmond only received a dusting of snow this morning, snow totals were slightly higher south of I-64.

Snow Updates From Virginia Beach

These video updates were sent to us via cell phone in Virginia Beach, enjoy! If you're interesting in joining our mobile spotter network, email us at weather@wtvr.com.

Weather Update 5 PM Friday

Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the far southeastern corner of Virginia, where 1 to 2" of snow will be possible through tomorrow morning. This also includes areas right along the North Carolina state line. The rest of central Virginia could see a dusting tonight into very early tomorrow as the upper level storm system passes overhead. We will continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated with the very latest as this storm passes to our south!

Rare Deep South Snow

A rare winter storm is tracking through the Southeast the end of this week, and has already produced record snowfall in some locations. On Thursday, Dallas recorded 11.2" of snowfall, which is the most snowfall ever recorded in a single day there. Here are some of the other snow totals so far:
Haslet, TX 14.2"
Bridgeport, TX 12.0"
Ennis, TX 10.3"
Cottondale, TX 9.5"
North Forth Worth, TX 9.0"
Haworth, OK 7.5"
Foreman, AR 4.0"
Natchitoches, LA 4.0"
West Monroe, LA 3.0"
Wesson, MS 3.0"
Shreveport, LA 2.0"
Columbia, MS 2.0"

This storm is expected to bring an accumulating snow through the rest of the Southeast Friday into Saturday, and Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories stretch all the way from eastern Texas into the Carolinas.

Notice that Virginia is not included in these watches, warnings, and advisories as a result of this storm taking a southerly track. We will, however, have a chance for a few snow flurries or showers Saturday as an upper-level disturbance tracks from the Midwest over Virginia. Only a dusting is possible for the locations that receive the flurries/showers. A much better chance for a fresh accumulating snow will be on Monday as a potent upper-level low dives out of Central Canada into the Midwest and aims for the Commonwealth. That storm may produce several inches in parts of the state, but the exact amounts and locations are yet to be determined. We'll provide updates on potential snowfall accumulations as the storm gets closer!

Snowfall Update 2009-2010

Wednesday about 2"-4" of snow fell in Central Virginia on average, with 2.8" recorded at Richmond International Airport. We are now about a foot below the top seasonal snowfall for Richmond, but just to our north, seasonal snowfall records have been blown away by big snowstorms this season. Here are the latest new records for most snowfall in a single Winter season:

Baltimore/Washington International Airport: 79.9" (breaks the previously held record of 62.5" in Winter 1995-96)
Dulles International Airport: 63.5" (breaks the previously held record of 61.9" in Winter 1995-96)
Reagan National Airport: 55.9" (breaks the previously held record of 54.4" in Winter 1898­­-99)

Richmond's seasonal snowfall is now tied with the Winter of 1921-22 at 27.5" for the 12th snowiest Winter on record.
For comparison, here are some of the other snowfalls to date for this Winter. You can see that the Mid-Atlantic cities have seen more snow than parts of New England or the Rockies!
Burlington, VT 68.3"
Caribou, ME 57.0"
Bangor, ME 52.1"
Harrisburg, PA 52.0"
Charleston, WV 42.4"
Denver, CO 41.4"
Newark, NJ 30.4"
Boston, MA 30.1"
Salt Lake City, UT 22.7"
Albany, NY 22.3"
Colorado Springs, CO 20.1"

Snow Showers Linger In Parts Of Virginia

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon for the areas in lavender, for light snow showers lingering in the region. This may lead to an additional inch of accumulation. In the Richmond Metro, there is only a slim chance for a flurry. The areas in white on the map are under a Blizzard Warning for white-out conditions in heavy blowing snow as the nor'easter intensifies and tracks northeast this afternoon.
In most of Central Virginia, snow totals were relatively low, 2"-4" in most cases. But as winds picked up shortly after sunrise, that created blowing snow which significantly reduced visibilities for several hours while the moderate and heavy snow bands tracked through the area.

Winds will remain up from the northwest 25-35 mph, with some higher gusts around 40 mph this afternoon. Even overnight, winds will gust in the 20-30 mph. While these winds remain up, snow on the ground and in the trees from this morning will blow around and can locally reduce visibility. Wind chills will be in the Teens all afternoon.

Snow Ending In Central Virginia

Snow is ending in Central Virginia late Wednesday morning, but continues in the Peninsulas and Southeast Virginia, as well as in north-central Virginia at this time. Winds continue to pick up this morning from the west and northwest, gusting to 35 mph. Wind gusts could climb as high as 45 mph this afternoon, potentially leading to power outages in the area, especially where tree limbs are weighed down by a few inches of fresh snowfall.

Heaviest Snow Moving East

Snow continues to fall across the metro area, however, the heaviest bands have now moved east of I-95, so additional accumulations will be minimal. Now the main problem will be the winds and blowing snow, which could reduce visibilities down to 1/4 mile.

Low Pressure Intensifying Off Coast

Snow showers will track eastward into Central Virginia early this morning, leading to light accumulations in the Advisory area, less than a couple inches. In the Warning area, totals so far have been about 1"-4", and it is still snowing as of writing this entry.

A low pressure system is intensifying just off the Virginia coast early Wednesday morning, which will create a tight pressure gradient over Virginia today. This will lead to sustained winds from the northwest in Central Virginia in the 25-35 mph range, with gusts to 45 mph. In the higher terrain to the west, though, wind gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible today and this evening.