Warmer & Dry Days

The rest of this week will be much warmer and dry with highs reaching the 80's Thursday through the weekend. Surface high pressure is building in from the Southeast U.S. today, and will settle over the Mid-Atlantic the rest of the week. Here's the surface map early Wednesday morning, where you can see the center of the high pressure is over eastern Tennessee:
This is accompanied by an upper-level ridge as well, which means skies will remain mostly sunny the rest of this week. High temperatures will reach the 80's Thursday through Sunday widespread in Central Virginia for the first time this Spring. The highest temperature in Richmond so far this year is 79 degrees on March 20th.

Minor River Flooding Through Wednesday

After several inches of rainfall the past couple of days, river, creek, and stream levels are rising in the Lower James River Basin and in the Appomattox Basin. However, only minor flooding is expected from Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon in these warned counties. The James River in Richmond will barely reach flood stage today and tomorrow. Here are the forecasts for the two measurement sites near the Huguenot Bridge and near Downtown:

Showers Linger, Rivers Rise

Rain showers will linger in the Commonwealth today and tomorrow while this upper storm system slowly tracks through the Mid-Atlantic. Here is a look at the upper-levels tomorrow morning:

Rain totals were widespread in the 1"-3" range overnight into Monday morning in Central Virginia, with some locations picking up more than 3" of rain. Most of this fell in a few hours as a squall line of strong thunderstorms tracked through the Commonwealth. As a result of so much rain in the area, river levels are rising and some are expected to reach their flood stages on Tuesday. The James River in Richmond near the Huguenot Bridge should reach flood stage around 3 p.m. Tuesday and peak at 13.5 feet at 2 a.m. on Wednesday.

In addition, so much moisture at the surface is leading to fog this morning, and will likely occur again overnight and Tuesday morning where winds are lighter.

Weather Update - 3:20 AM

The squall line that produced 1"-2" of rainfall in Central Virginia continues to track eastward into the eastern Peninsulas and Southeast Virginia. Showers remain behind the squall line for the southeast half of the state, but no additional thunderstorms are expected behind this squall line. Although the Tornado Watch technically remains in effect until 5 a.m. for several counties in southern Virginia, the threat has ended there, and I anticipate that watch being allowed to expire early. Along the squall line, expect heavy downpours and frequent lightning with some gusty winds, but no severe storms.

Weather Update - 12:15 AM

Thunderstorms will continue to develop across central and southern Virginia. A Tornado Watch is still in effect for southern Virginia until 5 AM. In addition, it is very warm across most of southeastern Virginia (from Petersburg to Norfolk), so I wouldn't be surprised if the watch is extended near that area. Most of the thunderstorms will move east of the area between 5 to 8 AM. Widely scattered showers will persist into Monday afternoon and evening, however, the chances for thunderstorms will be very slim.

One to two inches of rain has already fallen in metro Richmond with heavier amounts to the north and west. We could easily pick up 1 to 2 more inches, so there could be ponding on the roadways for the commute tomorrow morning, so be extra careful. Rivers and streams will also be running high - you can monitor them at the following link:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=va&w=map

Weather Update - 9:45 PM

Thunderstorms continue to develop near Danville, South Boston and Farmville. These storms are racing to the northeast at 40 to 45 mph and are weakening once they arrive in central VA. The front responsible for all of this is drifting in our direction, so we will see the thunderstorm activity shift eastward as well. I will be in the Storm Center here tonight until Carrie arrives, so if there are any warnings, we've got you covered!

Sleet In The Area

We just got a report of sleet in Midlothian. This batch of wintry weather is racing to the southeast, so it will not last much longer. In addition, temps will stay above freezing, so all ice pellets will melt on impact.

Freeze Likely Saturday Morning

After a strong cold front sweeps through the Commonwealth Friday morning, bringing rain and much cooler temperatures, skies will clear overnight into Saturday morning. With the colder air mass in place under clearing skies with lighter winds, temperatures are expected to fall to around freezing in much of Central Virginia. Richmond International Airport has not recorded a freezing temperature since March 9th (low temperature: 29 degrees), which if we do not have another freeze this season, could become a new record for the earliest last freeze (assuming we don't have a freeze the rest of Spring). The current record-holder for the earliest last Spring freeze is March 12, 1946. The average last Spring freeze in Richmond is April 8.

Saturday is a big day for Richmond with the enormously popular Ukrop's Monument Avenue 10K Race. Temperatures at the start of the race at 8:30 a.m. will still be around freezing, and not reach 50 degrees until Noon. If you're planning to support the runners, I would advise layers! At least the runners will warm up pretty quickly once they get going. Dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected all day Saturday.

10K Forecast Update

A strong cold front is expected to head southward through Virginia on Friday, bringing a good opportunity for rain during the day, and also ushering in much cooler weather Friday night. Here is a look at the cold front Friday morning:

You can see where it's draped through southern Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana. This front will track south of the Commonwealth by late Friday, allowing for clearing skies and dry weather for Saturday morning. While I'm sure most of us will be glad for dry weather Saturday, the flip side to the cold front is, of course, the cooler air coming with it. This means Saturday morning will be cold, likely in the mid-30's at the start of the 10K. Temperatures will not reach the low-50's until after 11am Saturday, so I would advise dressing in layers if you're headed out to either run in or cheer on the runners (don't miss the CBS 6 10K Team!) at the race.

Few Showers & Storms This Afternoon

After a round of heavy rain moved through Central Virginia this morning, only isolated showers and thunderstorms will affect the area this afternoon. All of these continue to move northward at about 35-40 mph, and the storms can produce locally heavy rainfall, wind gusts to 40 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. Severe threat will continue to be low, but because of clearing skies in some locations, that will allow the atmosphere to destabilize a bit and could generate some pretty strong to borderline severe storms this afternoon.
Officially at the Richmond International Airport, 0.19" of rain fell this morning. It looks like most locations received less than a half-inch of rainfall this morning.

Showers & Isolated Storms Monday Morning

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will track northward through Central Virginia this morning. A few of these storms may approach severe limits with strong wind gusts and small hail, but overall severe threat for our area is very low. These storms will move north at about 40-45 mph and produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, occasional lightning, and possibly small hail. Rain chances will quickly decrease by early this afternoon.

Weather Update 11:30 PM Sunday

A small batch of showers is moving across the area right now. Widely scattered showers will be possible for the rest of tonight. Showers will intensify early tomorrow as the core of the storm system moves closer to us. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop between 8AM and 2 PM when the atmosphere is the most unstable. The severe threat still looks very low, but we will be keeping an eye on it tomorrow morning.

An Early Ukrop's Monument 10K Forecast

It still appears very likely that central Virginia will be influenced by a two-part storm system next Friday and Saturday. The first part will be a cold front arriving early Friday, dropping high temperatures from the mid 70s Thursday to the upper 50s on Friday. This cooler air will remain in the area through Saturday. The second part will be an upper storm system arriving from the southwest that will bring rain to the area Friday into early Saturday. There’s a chance that the rain could end before the race, but at this point in time, I’m keeping the forecast as is. I am lowering the temperature for race time, as there appears to be a consistent signal for colder air to move in on Friday. Here’s my latest forecast:

Mostly cloudy and cool, with a 40% chance of rain, and temperatures from 8 AM – 11 AM ranging from 42-47 degrees.

Spring Outlook

The Vernal Equinox is Saturday (see earlier Blog entry), and today the Climate Prediction Center released its Spring outlook for April, May, and June for the U.S.
Temperature Outlook:

Precipitation Outlook:

This is showing the Commonwealth having "Equal Chances" (EC) of an above or below average Spring season. So what's the Spring "norm" for Richmond? The average high temperature goes from the mid-60's in early April to the mid-80's in late June. Here's a graph for the averages and extremes in Richmond for an entire year:

And for precipitation, here are Richmond's averages (based on 1971-2000 records):
April: 3.18"
May: 3.95"
June: 3.54"
You can view the full climate averages and records for Richmond here.
In other climate news, El Nino, which began last April and has been going strong through the Winter months, is expected to continue through at least Spring, although there should be a gradual weakening back to near-neutral conditions by early Summer.

Irish Festival This Weekend

Statewide Tornado Drill Today

The annual statewide tornado drill is this morning at 9:45 a.m. in the Commonwealth. If you have a weather radio (and you should!), be sure to turn it on at 9:40 a.m. to ensure you receive the test tornado warning signal. Don't have a weather radio yet? You can buy one at various local retailers, or you can purchase one online here.

The best kind of weather radio to have is one with "SAME" technology, which allows you to program the warnings specific to your county or surrounding counties. We will also broadcast an alert on CBS 6. During the drill today, you should enact your tornado safety precautions, which include going to the interiormost, lowest room in your building. The goal is to put as many walls between you and the outside. If you have a basement or storm cellar, go there. Make sure that your safe room is prepared, with enough space for you and anyone else seeking shelter in that location, and also keep your emergency kit in that room. The American Red Cross has great information about preparing a kit. In your safe room, you could also include pillows, blankets, helmets (to protect your head from flying debris), long-sleeve shirts and pants, shoes, non-perishable food, and enough drinking water for three days. Remember, if your building is destroyed, you need all of your vital supplies with you in that safe room, including medication, a cell phone, and vital insurance and phone numbers.

James River Below Flood Stage

The James River in Richmond reached its peak early Monday afternoon before falling back below minor flood stage at about 4:30 a.m. Tuesday. River levels should continue to drop the rest of this week, as we are expected to remain dry in the Commonwealth into the weekend.
The next chance for rain in Virginia arrives late Sunday afternoon and evening, and will continue into Monday as a strong cold front sweeps eastward.

James River Experiencing Minor Flooding

Minor flooding about a foot above flood stage continues Monday morning along the James River in Richmond. River levels should peak late Monday before falling gradually below flood stage late Tuesday.
Richmond officially picked up 2.43" of rain from Thursday through Sunday. The low pressure system responsible for our multiple rounds of rain will slowly track away from the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tuesday, taking the cloud-cover and rain with it. Our next chance for rain will not arrive until next Sunday.

Update On The James River

It looks like the James will crest about a foot above flood stage tomorrow evening. It should then drop below flood stage by Tuesday evening. Luckily it looks like the chances for rain will be very slim after tomorrow.

Scattered Showers This Morning

An upper level storm system continues to drag in some moisture this morning, so scattered showers will be possible for the next few hours. You can spot the storm's core on the map below. Rain showers have developed on the backside of this spinning system.


As the core pulls off the coast, it will drag the showers over central and eastern Virginia. During this time, showers will become more widely scattered. If you are wanting to do something outside today, I would advise you to hold off until later in the afternoon once the showers break apart.

The James River is running high this morning from Buckingham and Fluvanna counties through metro Richmond. It should crest by Monday night about 1 to 2 feet above flood stage.

Weather Update 9:40 PM Saturday

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible for the rest of tonight. Instability is very limited, so I'm not expecting severe thunderstorms, though don't be surprised if you hear some thunder. In addition, rain will be heavy at times with the stronger cells.

Flood Watch Expanded

The Flood Watch has been expanded to cover all of Virginia from this evening through Saturday morning, when 1"-3" of rain is expected to fall. A developing low pressure center off the Southeast Coast will track northward tonight over Central Virginia into Saturday, providing the lift needed for precipitation. In addition, ample moisture will be in place as easterly surface flow ushers in moisture from the Atlantic, which will allow heavy rainfall to occur. Here is a snapshot of the surface observations from shortly after 11 a.m. Friday:

Rain from this developing low currently off the coast of South Carolina will expand into Central VA later this afternoon, and rain will be heavy at times this evening and overnight while the low tracks northward. This system will be east of the Chesapeake Bay mid-day Saturday, with heavy rain over much of Central Virginia, especially along I-64. Rain will gradually diminish Saturday night, but scattered showers will linger into Sunday. Flooding will be an issue in urban areas with poor drainage, especially when the rain is heavy. You can also expect ponding on the roads, flooding in the usual low-lying spots, and also in gullies, creeks, streams, and drainage ditches. Remember never to drive on roads covered with water. You cannot tell if the road underneath has washed out!

Heavy Rain Expected Through Saturday

Rain showers will continue off and on through the day Friday, but a round of heavy rain is expected tonight through Saturday morning in Central Virginia. Several inches of rainfall is possible, with isolated totals up to 5" in the Watch area. Heavy rain will result from moisture streaming in from the Atlantic and Gulf, combined with a potent upper-level low pressure system slowly tracking eastward out of the Midwest. In addition, a surface low will develop and track over eastern Virginia, further aiding the likelihood of heavy rain.

Welcome Rainfall Overnight

Rain has overspread all of central Virginia, and will continue overnight. Most areas will receive between 0.25" and 0.50", which will be the most rain than we have seen in a 12-hour period in Richmond over about the past month. A strong upper-level low will take it's time moving this way, bringing several rounds of rain to the area through Saturday night. It will be interesting to see what happens as the cold core moves right over Virginia on Sunday. I've seen situations like this produce wet snowflakes mixing in with rain showers with surface temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. There will be a much better chance of that happening farther west in the higher terrain. It looks like we could see a cool snap in about 11 to 13 days from now, but it should be very brief.

Spring Things

With high temperatures this week running 5-10 degrees above average, Spring things are on many of our minds, from watching the first bulbs rise out of the previously snow-covered ground, to the pleasantly mild afternoons prompting Richmonders to seek leisure outdoors. Even with a high of only 61 degrees on Sunday, I saw plenty of ice cream shops packed (and I was one of them rebelling against the final days of Winter, too)! The first Spring thing to note is that Daylight Saving Time begins this weekend. "Spring Forward" your clocks one hour at 2 a.m. this Sunday morning.
Next is the "official" start of Spring, which begins at 1:32 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, March 20. The start of Spring is defined by the Vernal Equinox ("Ver" from Latin meaning "spring," and "aequus" and "nox" combined to mean "equal night"), which is when (from our perspective on Earth) the Sun's incident solar rays are most directed at the Equator.

Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees relative to its orbital plane, which means that as our planet orbits around the Sun throughout the year, the Sun's incident rays hit different parts of the Earth more directly.

(Image: NASA)

Thus, the Earth has seasons! Here's the perspective from Earth:

What Happened To Winter?

Each year you know spring is around the corner when you hear people out riding their motorcycles - today they were out in full force! It looks like the cold Canadian air will stay bottled up north through at least next weekend. The next three days will be mainly quiet, then it's looking like it will be a stormy end to the week. A powerful storm will park itself over the Midwest and draw in moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. You will definitely notice the changes by Thursday and Friday!


We should see two or three waves of rain between Thursday and Saturday. In addition, we could see isolated thunderstorms embedded in these showers. Although the threat for severe storms seems limited at the time, a few strong storms could develop on Friday. Surface dew points should reach the lower 50s:

I'm expecting surface temps to also climb to near 70 degrees in the afternoon, so there should be enough instability to support thunderstorm development.

Jet stream winds will be strong enough to provide speed shear (increasing winds with height). However, this shear might be too strong and limit thunderstorm development.

This is still a long way out, and there are a lot of factors to consider. Regardless, it will be something that we will monitor through the week and will keep you updated!

New Weather Satellite In Space

GOES-P was launched into space yesterday. Once it's positioned in orbit 22,300 miles in the sky, it will be renamed GOES-15. This new satellite will help us track storm systems and monitor climate by providing crucial surface and ocean temperatures.

Current Snowpack

Here's the latest plot of snow depth across the region. You can spot a couple patches of snow from the storm earlier this week - one near the Middle Peninsula and another farther to the southwest. You can find these plots at the following link:

http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Snow Winding Down

The wet snowfall from late Tuesday into early this morning is wrapping up in the state, with only lingering snow showers in the eastern Peninsulas along the Bay, and also in Southeast Virginia. All Winter Weather Advisories have expired. The low pressure system responsible for our wet snow will track away from our coast today, with only a slight chance for scattered flurries this afternoon in the eastern half of the state.

Most of the snow overnight melted on contact, especially on roads. But where the snowfall fell at a faster pace, it was able to accumulate on the grass and elevated objects, and even create slush on roads east of I-95. Here are some of the snowfall totals prior to melting:

White Stone 3.0"
Appomattox Co. 3.0"
Pittsylvania Co. 2.5"
Amelia Co. 2.0"
Nottoway Co. 1.5"
Powhatan 1.5"
New Kent 1.0"
Fishersville 1.0"
Waynesboro 0.5"
Stanley 0.5"
Henrico Co. 0.5"
Chesterfield Co. 0.5"
Goochland Co. 0.5"
Hanover Co. 0.5"
Massanutten Trace
Newland Dusting

Wednesday Morning Update

Wet snow continues to fall in much of Central Virginia early Wednesday morning, with the heaviest snow occurring east of I-95. Temperatures remained above freezing overnight nearly everywhere, which significantly reduced our potential for snowfall accumulation. The roads are wet in the area, with snow only sticking to the grass and elevated objects. Measuring snowfall accumulation in a storm like this is difficult because the snow in many cases melts on contact. However, snow totals have been up to 2" in parts of the area, with most of this melting down shortly after falling. Where the snow is still falling the heaviest at this time east of I-95 into the eastern Peninsulas, there may be 1"-2" of wet snow accumulation, and because the snowfall rate is higher in this area, roads are becoming slushy, but not snow-packed or icy. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for southeast Virginia until 9 a.m.

Snow showers and flurries will linger through the day, especially east of I-95 closer to the coastal low pressure system tracking to the northeast. Temperatures will remain above freezing today, though, which will also inhibit snowfall accumulation in the area.

Tuesday Noon Update

It's already snowing at this time along I-81 and east into parts of Albemarle, Greene, and Madison Counties at Noon. You can see traffic cameras here to see the snow falling in that part of the state. Rain showers will gradually overspread the rest of Central Virginia this afternoon, then mix with and changeover to snow this evening before Midnight. Because surface temperatures will remain above freezing in most locations overnight, roads will remain wet, with wet snow accumulation on the grass and other elevated surfaces. Most of the area will receive a trace up to an inch of snow accumulation. However, we are expecting a narrow band of higher totals to occur overnight, likely from south-central Virginia in between I-85 and I-95 south of Petersburg, possibly as far northeast as Hampton Roads. Even here, though, accumulation will not stick to the roads, but may reduce visibilities when the heavy snow falls overnight into early Wednesday morning. Snow flurries and showers will linger in the region Wednesday afternoon, but not lead to additional accumulation.

Weather Update Tuesday Morning

A low pressure storm system is currently tracking along the Gulf Coast of the Florida panhandle, with the storm's strong upper low moving through the Southeast U.S. Rain is expanding into South Carolina this morning from Georgia, and will continue to head northeast toward Central Virginia this afternoon. Rain is expected to mix with wet snow tonight, before completely changing over to snow around Midnight tonight. However, because surface temperatures will remain above freezing in the area overnight and tomorrow, the only accumulation possible will be on grass and elevated surfaces. Most snowfall totals will be low, generally an inch or less. But some locations in Central Virginia, especially east and southeast of Petersburg, may see a band of heavier snow overnight into early Wednesday morning which may produce a couple inches of wet snowfall. Roads will remain wet in the area, not icy or snow-covered, and whatever snow does accumulate will not stick around for long as high temperatures rise to around 40 degrees Wednesday. At this time, no watches, warnings, or advisories have been issued for Central Virginia.