Hurricane Watches Now in Effect

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Cape Fear NC, north to the Virginia border as Earl approaches the region. There is the possibility of watches being issued for the Virginia coastline late Tuesday or Wednesday. As of the 5 PM AST update from the NHC, hurricane force winds (74 mph and higher) extended outward 90 miles from the center of Earl, with tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extending outward up to 200 miles.

Hurricane Earl Likely To Pass Near VA Friday

Major Hurricane Earl is still on track to skirt the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine Thursday through Saturday. Impacts in the Commonwealth will most likely be rough surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding, both in the Bay and on the Atlantic shore. Friday as the hurricane moves just east of us, and as an upper trough approaches from the west, we will be under a tight pressure gradient, likely leading to blustery conditions on Friday (especially east of I-95). Far eastern Virginia closer to the Bay has the best chance for rainfall out of Earl, but it appears most of us in central Virginia will miss out on any rain from the tropical system unless the system's center tracks along the coast. Right now, it looks like the center of Earl will remain about 150-200 miles east of Virginia Beach on Friday morning.

Earl should be weakening as it passes by Virginia's coast, because the ocean waters in the Mid-Atlantic are cooler. The curve to the northeast is expected because of that approaching trough I mentioned. This trough and associated surface cold front will move through Virginia late Friday into early Saturday, helping sweep Earl away from the U.S., but not before Earl rakes New England with a nasty nor'easter-like experience. Cape Cod could be slammed with tropical storm force winds late Friday and early Saturday as Earl races northeastward toward Canada's Gulf of St Lawrence.

To the east of Earl in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling as a weak tropical storm right now with maximum sustained winds of just 40 mph.

Some shear is preventing better organization of the system. Most data indicates the path of Fiona will be similar to Danielle's, likely not threatening the U.S. coast, and never reaching hurricane strength.

Fiona Joins Earl in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Fiona was named this afternoon as winds reached 40 mph, and Hurricane Earl has strengthened to a category 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. The forecast track for Earl has shifted farther west, resulting in a greater threat to the east coast. The forecast track for Fiona is shown above. Go to our website at http://www.wtvr.com/weather to access the CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker to track both of these storms.

Earl a Major Hurricane: Cat 3

Hurricane Earl has reached major hurricane status at Category 3 strength. The eye is now clearly visible in satellite imagery.

Maximum sustained winds are up to 120 mph, after starting off this morning at 105 mph. This indicates a period of rapid intensification is underway, thus, the increasingly evident eye. A sequence of eye-wall development and weakening is likely over the next several days, which will lead to some fluctuation of intensity. However, Earl is moving through a low-shear, warm surface water environment which will keep the hurricane very strong. Category 4 strength appears feasible, if not likely, sometime within the next 24 to 48 hours. The track of Earl will still curve precariously close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Virginia coastline late Thursday into early Friday.

As a result, we expect extremely high surf and rip tides with potential coastal flooding as Earl passes by. However, we are still several days away from the system's pass, and the track could shift significantly by that time. The model tracks shown above are counting on the approach of a trough and surface cold front late Thursday and Friday to the East Coast from the west across the U.S. That means Earl would be steered to the northeast away from a direct landfall as the trough advances eastward. But if this trough slows or weakens, Earl would be able to keep moving west, likely as a major hurricane. We will continue to provide updates on the air and online throughout the day, every day this week! For your reference, here is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

Earl Update Monday Morning

Hurricane Earl is a Category Two storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph as of early Monday morning. Earl will intensify over the next day into a major hurricane of at least Category Three strength, potentially as strong as a Cat 4.

The track of Earl appears to be very close to the Outer Banks and Virginia's coast on Thursday and Friday. The center of Earl may pass within 180 miles of Virginia Beach, and only 100 miles of Hatteras in the Outer Banks.

Even if our region receives only a glancing blow of the system, there should be rough surf and rip tides Wednesday through Friday along the Eastern Shore, Virginia Beach and Sandbridge, and all along the Outer Banks. If you have beach plans later this week anywhere in this region, be aware of this threat when swimming in the ocean! I also encourage you to stay tuned this week for the latest on the track of Earl, as any shift to the west would mean more significant impacts along the coast. Right now, tropical storm force winds extend out from the center of the storm 175 miles, which could be felt at the beach later Thursday and early Friday. What could turn the system away from us Friday? An approaching cold front from the west. However, if this front slows or weakens, that keeps the door open for Earl to track farther west, closer to North Carolina and Virginia as a major hurricane.

Tropics Update Sunday 11:30 PM

As expected, there is a slight shift westward in Earl's track with the latest computer forecasts. Hurricane-force winds can extend as far as 45 miles from the core of a storm, so people along the Outer Banks, Virginia Beach and Eastern Shore will need to watch this storm very closely over the next couple days. Again, I want to emphasize that the track of Earl is not etched in stone yet. We will continue to bring you the very latest data when it becomes available.

Earl Update Sunday 5:15 PM

Earl is now a strong category one hurricane with sustained winds of 85 mph. Earl's forward movement has slowed down to 14 mph. Over the next three days, it should continue its northwest track, then turn northward. The key to this forecast will be the timing of a front out west which should deflect Earl back to sea on Friday.

Right now, I think that the high pressure overhead will affect Earl's path a little more than what the computers dictate. Earl will continue to slow down as it strengthens to a category three hurricane by tomorrow or Tuesday. In addition, I think the computer forecasts are too aggressive with Friday's front. For these reasons, I tend to agree most with the GEM computer forecast, which brings Earl a little closer to the coast than the other models (indicated by the purple line below).

If the GEM forecast verifies, then Earl would briefly clip the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach late Thursday into early Friday. I want to emphasize that nothing is etched in stone right now. This is a day-to-day situation, so there will be updates to this path!

Tropics Update - Saturday Evening 8/28

Hurricane Danielle will continue to move into the north Atlantic and weaken, so now all eyes are on Earl and Fiona. The steering winds that deflected Danielle away from the east coast will be gone for the upcoming workweek. This means that the track of Earl could easily shift farther west but it's way too early to speculate how far. The same holds true for Fiona (not officially named yet), which should become a tropical storm tomorrow or Monday. This is something that we will be carefully tracking during the next few days, so I encourage you to keep a close eye to the forecast!

Tropics Update - Friday 11:50 AM

Danielle is a powerful category four hurricane. Luckily we are still anticipating Danielle to turn towards the cool North Atlantic waters and weaken. Tropical Storm Earl will continue its westward track and could potentially become a category three hurricane next week. The tropical wave behind Earl should become Tropical Storm Fiona by this weekend. It's still way too early to speculate if either of these storms will make landfall in the United States.

Drought Update Thursday

Rain events over the past week (this map shows rain over the last seven days), especially in western parts of the state, have chiseled away at the some of the drought in Virginia.

This week, about 16% less of the state is considered to be in drought (Moderate to Severe). Our Abnormally Dry region is shrinking, too (this week 11% less than last week). However, much of central Virginia along I-64 and I-95 is still severely dry with no significant change in the drought conditions. Rain chances are nil over the next week in central Virginia. Today as a cold front moves through the state, though, a few isolated showers and storms are possible, but certainly not enough to impact our current drought status.

Tropics Update Thursday Morning

Hurricane Danielle (Cat 2 at 100 mph sustained winds) and Tropical Storm Earl (45 mph sustained winds) are moving through the open, warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Both systems currently do not look like they will impact the U.S., but Bermuda could be impacted by these systems over the next week.

Tropical Storm Earl will likely become a hurricane by late Friday or early Sunday:

Tropics Update: Depression #7 Forms

Tropical Depression #7 just formed in the eastern Atlantic and will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Earl later today. This system could be at hurricane strength in a few days.

The track of this system is similar to Danielle's, and the long-range data does not indicate that #7/Earl will reach the U.S. East Coast. However, it may be slightly more to the west of Danielle, which means we will be monitoring it very closely!

Danielle Likely To Be Joined By Earl

It is that time of year when activity in the Atlantic Basin typically picks up frequency. It appears this year is no exception. As soon as we get into the last week of August, climatologically speaking, tropical systems are much more likely to form as a result of favorable upper-level winds and very warm surface waters.

Several atmospheric waves have tracked west out of Africa recently, leading to the development of Hurricane Danielle, and another system soon to form in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Depression #7. This will likely become Tropical Storm/Hurricane Earl in the coming days as it follows on the heels of Danielle.

There is a third wave still over western Africa that is about to move into the Atlantic, and that could eventually organize into a tropical system, too. Here is a fast-forward view of these three systems from a tropical model, looking ahead a week from today:
Danielle still looks like it will not impact the U.S., but Tropical Depression #7/Earl appears as though it will take a track more to the west of Danielle's. This means it could potentially impact Bermuda, or even track to the west of Bermuda closer to the East Coast. We'll be monitoring the next two systems after Danielle because of their potential tracks closer to the U.S. If you have beach plans anytime this week or next week anywhere on the East Coast, you'll be fine. It's after the end of next week that we will need to closely track #7 or #8 for any potential U.S. impacts. Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!

New Temperature Record At RIC

Tuesday's high temperature of 77 degrees broke a string of consecutive days with high temperatures of 80 degrees or hotter. Up until yesterday, there were 90 days in a row with high temperatures warmer than 80 degrees in Richmond. This marks the second longest stretch of 80-degree days on record, with 2005 still holding onto the top spot with 95 days. That streak ended September 23, 2005. Record-keeping of this kind goes back to 1897. Richmond was able to have such a "cool" day Tuesday because of an upper-level low pressure system parked right over the Commonwealth generating mostly cloudy skies and a north to northeast wind. This upper system will weaken and begin drifting east away from Virginia Wednesday, allowing for more sunshine and a return of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Danielle Weakens Back to a Cat 1

Hurricane Danielle, which strengthened earlier this morning to a Category 2 storm, weakened back down to a Category 1 with maximum sustained winds at 80 mph. Dry air wrapped around and into the storm and eroded part of the surface low center of circulation, which weakened the whole system.

Danielle is still on track to miss any landmasses, probably even Bermuda.

Hurricane Danielle Stronger Tuesday Morning

Hurricane Danielle is now a Category 2 storm as of early Tuesday morning. Further strengthening is possible over the next day up to a Major Hurricane at Category 3 strength, but Danielle will likely not impact any landmasses as it tracks through the open waters of the central Atlantic.

Danielle is currently tracking around the southern periphery of a ridge over the Atlantic, but will be able to make a turn more northwest around that ridge over the next day. A trough will also deepen over the central Atlantic aiding in the turn to the north-northwest by the end of this week, steering Danielle away from any landmasses. As a result, Hurricane Danielle may also be able to bypass Bermuda.

Danielle Update - Monday 7:10 PM

Hurricane Danielle looks very impressive on satellite imagery this afternoon. It should continue to strengthen to a category 3 by Wednesday as it moves to the northwest. An upper level storm system over the east coast should deflect Danielle northward during this weekend.

Tropical Storm Danielle Update Monday Morning

Tropical Depression #6 is now Tropical Storm Danielle after strengthening yesterday as a result of a burst of convection. You can see Danielle on the right of this satellite image. (Tropical Storm Frank in the Pacific is on the left side of the image just south of Mexico.) Danielle will continue to move to the west-northwest today through the open central Atlantic, not impacting any landmasses. Maximum sustained winds as of early Monday morning are at 50 mph, with higher gusts around 65 mph.

The long-range data indicates Danielle will steer clear of the U.S. mainland, and may even bypass Bermuda to the east. Danielle should reach hurricane strength by Tuesday at the current rate of intensification, and forecast data indicates this will be the case: