Few Flurries Monday Morning

A few flurries are making it to the surface Monday morning in Central Virginia, but most of the light precipitation moving through the state is not reaching the ground because of dry air at the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, flurries have occurred this morning from Lynchburg, to Farmville, to Richmond, to Hanover, and up to D.C. This activity is very light, and will not lead to any significant accumulations in Central Virginia. Skies will remain mostly cloudy Monday, with light Easterly winds.

A strong storm system is developing in the South-Central U.S. today, and will leave a swath of Winter Weather from Texas to Virginia and into the Northeast through Wednesday. Winter Watches and Warnings are in effect for this region, with a Winter Storm Watch for Western and far North-Central Virginia. This storm system is still developing early Monday morning, so these forecast snow totals Tuesday-Wednesday for Virginia are preliminary.

As for snowfall accumulations, I expect mostly trace amounts of snow along a line from Tappahannock to Richmond to Lynchburg. Along and north of a line from D.C. to Staunton, and in the mountains of western Virginia, up to 3” of snow is possible by the end of Wednesday, but most places in that region will have 2" or less.

Also, some icing is likely along that freezing line, as it shifts from Central into Northern Virginia Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to slick and icy roads and bridges until temperatures rise above freezing in Central Virginia.

The freezing line is going to be the deal-breaker for who sees snow and who does not! At this time, I expect the freezing line to be along a line from Tappahannock to Richmond to Farmville by Noon Tuesday, becoming all rain along and South of this line through Tuesday afternoon. The rain/snow line will continue to shift Northward toward Fredericksburg to Charlottesville overnight, with rain South of that line. By Wednesday morning, snow will be confined to West, Northwest, and North-Central Virginia. Wednesday afternoon, the cold front associated with this system will sweep through the region. Any lingering rainfall will transition back over to a wintry mix before ending Wednesday night in Central Virginia.

The next several days still have many factors that could change and alter the above forecast. We will post updates often, so stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Carrie--

Flurries in Hopewell

I just got a call from a viewer in Hopewell who says there are flurries falling from the sky. A stray flake or two will be possible tonight, but most areas should remain dry despite the cloud cover.

A better chance for wintry weather will arrive on Tuesday. I just got done looking at the latest data, and it still looks like it will be cold enough to support a wet snow or even some sleet (ice pellets) early in the day Tuesday. Temperatures should warm up in the afternoon so that most precip will change over to a cold rain, which will persist on-and-off through Wednesday.

Right now it is too early to speculate on snow accumulations. There are still too many uncertainties in this forecast to start pinpointing specific amounts. Meteorologist Carrie Rose and Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel will be in here tomorrow with more updates, so be sure to check back often!

Weather Pattern In Transition

Thanks to the Arctic plunge we experienced for the end of this month, the average temperature for January will end up being below normal. However, we are experiencing a major shift in the weather pattern and changes are headed this way. Right now the jet stream is rather flat, which always makes for a challenging forecast! In fact, we could see a wintry mix by Tuesday of this upcoming workweek (another update for this will come in the evening).



Between February 4-6, the transition will be complete and there is a good chance that we will see a long stretch of temperatures that are above average, which is typical for a La Nina weather pattern.



This is far into the future, so I will continue to track it and have more updates in the coming weeks.