Showers Persist This Morning

Showers and an occasional downpour will be possible this morning. Showers will become more isolated in the afternoon, so today will not be a complete washout. We will then be completely dry in the evening.

Thunderstorms Possible Tonight

There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere to feed the thunderstorms out west...especially in the northeast corner of the state.


Surface-based CAPE

These storms are crawling to the east at around 20 to 25 mph and should affect metro Richmond between midnight and 2 AM.

Although I am not expecting these storms to be severe (i.e. causing damage), you can expect very heavy rain, 40 mph wind gusts, and frequent lightning. The strongest storms will stay north of I-64, where most of the energy resides.

Ana?

This is a loooong way away (i.e. a lot can change), but it is something we are carefully watching. Latest data has been very consistent with developing a low pressure in the Gulf next week.

The water is already very warm:


In addition, the jet stream will migrate to the north, so wind shear will be low:

If this all comes together, we could see a sub-tropical storm develop....the first named storm of the season: Ana.