Zach's Winter Outlook 2009-2010

In case you missed Zach's Winter Outlook for 2009-2010 Wednesday night, here are the details:

*Above normal temperatures & near-normal precipitation.

*More snow than last Winter, but still below normal.

*More ice this Winter than in recent years.

One of the main factors in the last statement is that the pattern setting up appears to have high pressure centered over New England. Low-level cold air thus moves south down the east side of the Appalachians right over Central Virginia. With moisture from the Atlantic and Southeast overriding that cold air, this is a perfect setup for significant ice storms. This should, therefore, lead to more ice this Winter than in the recent past.

SNOW: 9" predicted, most of which should come from one Nor'easter

ICE: Several minor ice events, with one significant ice storm

TEMPS: Above normal, with six days in the 70s in December, January, and February

Showers and Storms Expected Overnight

A powerful upper-level storm system and associated cold front move through central Virginia tonight, resulting in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area. The strongest storms will produce small hail and wind gusts to 30 mph as well as occasional lightning. Much colder air will be moving into the area after midnight, and the rain could change to or mix with a few snow flakes before ending. If this were to occur in the Richmond metro area, the most likely time would be between 3 AM and 6 AM. All precipitation will come to an end around sunrise Friday, with mostly sunny and blustery conditions expected during the day.

Fog Update

The Dense Fog Advisory has expired for most of Central Virginia, but does remain in effect for the counties highlighted in orange until Noon. This does include the cities of Fredericksburg, Charlottesville, and Staunton. A Ground Stop program is still in effect for DCA, BWI, and IAD, and will likely remain in effect until late morning or mid-day. Click here for the latest on those airports.
Elsewhere in Central Virginia, patchy fog will linger until late-morning, when visibilities should be much improved.