Flurries Possible This Afternoon

There is *just* enough instability in the air to support isolated sprinkles and flurries across the area. Luckily temperatures are in the mid and upper 40s, so all flakes will melt on impact. I expect skies to quickly clear after sunset.

Weather Update 7:30 AM Sunday

The picture is becoming clearer as this storm approaches our area. As I've said from the start, surface temperatures will be key to the forecast. Right now it looks like temps will hover just above the freezing mark as the system passes Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will eat away at our accumulation potential. In fact, history has proven (i.e. last Wednesday night) that when surface temperatures climb to 35 or 36 degrees, we will see snow change to rain. This is a very fine line that we have to forecast and is the reason why I'm going to hold off until later this evening to speculate possible snow totals in our area.



March snow storms are actually more common than you would think. Here is a list of a few I found at the following link:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/climate/RIC_Climate_Records.pdf

Looking Even Further Back

Here are the maps from last year's big snow on March 1st and 2nd where the metro received roughly 6 to 10" of snow- this will help to put things in perspective. Notice the rigorous upper low in the south (moisture source and lift) merging forces with the trough to the north (which provided the cold air). This system started as rain, then switched to heavy snow. You can find these maps at the folowing link:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/