Risk for Severe Storms

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon to our North as a cold front makes its move south, creating a cluster of storms that may track all the way into Northern Virginia and into the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. Hence, we have a slight risk for this part of the state:

We could also see isolated afternoon storms develop anywhere in Central Virginia today with peak afternoon heating and humid conditions, and those could also be quite strong. That same approaching cold front on Friday could enhance thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening as it tracks into Virginia. It looks like most of us will have a good chance for rain and storms Friday, and some of these storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail:

Showers may stick around Saturday, too, with mostly cloudy skies, but by Sunday we should be dry and warmer in the 80's.

Surf's Up

As a result of the non-Tropical low pressure system spinning about 450 miles Southeast of North Carolina's coastline, gale force winds, high waves and rough surf are being kicked up from South Carolina to Virginia. Offshore, seas are up to 14 feet. At our beaches in Virginia, waves are up to 8-9 feet along the coast right now. These waves are expected to subside over the next couple of days, but if you're headed out to the beach today for an early start to the holiday weekend, be aware of the rough wave conditions. This low is still not showing signs of becoming sub-tropical, so it will likely weaken and drift northeast over the next couple days.

Tropical Update

The weak and disorganized area of convection in between Bermuda and the Bahamas is showing no signs of strengthening into a sub-tropical storm. There is still a very low chance that these showers and storms may form into Sub-Tropical Storm Alex in the next 48 hours, but it's not likely. This low pressure system will stay offshore, only bringing cloud-cover over the Carolinas and Virginia and higher surf for the end of the week.
The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts a week from today! Make sure you are prepared.