A broad area of convection (thunderstorms) continues to slowly organize in the central Atlantic. Water temperatures are very warm in this region, however, wind shear is still moderately high, which is temporarily inhibiting the development of this system.

Most of the computer forecasts have this system strengthening over the next 48 hours as it drifts slowly westward.

If this trend continues, we will have our first named storm of the season - Alex. We will be tracking this closely through the week and will bring you more updates!

El Nino Update

El Nino ended in May across the Equatorial Pacific with ENSO-neutral conditions now. Not only have sea surface temperatures fallen into the neutral range, they continue to fall and will likely be within La Nina conditions this Summer. Many of the computer model forecasts are beginning to agree that La Nina will settle in this Summer and continue the rest of the year. The NCEP CFS forecast is the heavy blue line:

It is not always the case, but there has been some research to indicate that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is enhanced during La Nina events. Last year's hurricane season confirmed the opposite, that during an El Nino year Atlantic hurricane activity is suppressed. We are already calling for an above-average hurricane season as a result of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and with the additional support of low wind shear from La Nina we should be on track for an active season.

Right now, tropical activity is low in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic Basin, but we will be monitoring for any developments!

(Visible satellite image 6/10/10 at 8:15 AM EDT)

Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday

After scattered showers moved through the state this morning, we're getting some breaks in the clouds which should allow the atmosphere to become more unstable this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from this afternoon into tonight as a cold front moves into Central Virginia. This front won't bring in a cooler airmass, but will serve as a forcing mechanism for storm development. Some of the storms that form today could become severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail, but there is also the slim chance for an isolated brief tornado closer to the surface low tracking just north of Virginia. That low pressure system will head out to sea away from the Mid-Atlantic tomorrow morning.