Hurricane Earl Likely To Pass Near VA Friday

Major Hurricane Earl is still on track to skirt the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine Thursday through Saturday. Impacts in the Commonwealth will most likely be rough surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding, both in the Bay and on the Atlantic shore. Friday as the hurricane moves just east of us, and as an upper trough approaches from the west, we will be under a tight pressure gradient, likely leading to blustery conditions on Friday (especially east of I-95). Far eastern Virginia closer to the Bay has the best chance for rainfall out of Earl, but it appears most of us in central Virginia will miss out on any rain from the tropical system unless the system's center tracks along the coast. Right now, it looks like the center of Earl will remain about 150-200 miles east of Virginia Beach on Friday morning.

Earl should be weakening as it passes by Virginia's coast, because the ocean waters in the Mid-Atlantic are cooler. The curve to the northeast is expected because of that approaching trough I mentioned. This trough and associated surface cold front will move through Virginia late Friday into early Saturday, helping sweep Earl away from the U.S., but not before Earl rakes New England with a nasty nor'easter-like experience. Cape Cod could be slammed with tropical storm force winds late Friday and early Saturday as Earl races northeastward toward Canada's Gulf of St Lawrence.

To the east of Earl in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Fiona, which is struggling as a weak tropical storm right now with maximum sustained winds of just 40 mph.

Some shear is preventing better organization of the system. Most data indicates the path of Fiona will be similar to Danielle's, likely not threatening the U.S. coast, and never reaching hurricane strength.

Fiona Joins Earl in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Fiona was named this afternoon as winds reached 40 mph, and Hurricane Earl has strengthened to a category 4 storm with winds of 135 mph. The forecast track for Earl has shifted farther west, resulting in a greater threat to the east coast. The forecast track for Fiona is shown above. Go to our website at http://www.wtvr.com/weather to access the CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker to track both of these storms.

Earl a Major Hurricane: Cat 3

Hurricane Earl has reached major hurricane status at Category 3 strength. The eye is now clearly visible in satellite imagery.

Maximum sustained winds are up to 120 mph, after starting off this morning at 105 mph. This indicates a period of rapid intensification is underway, thus, the increasingly evident eye. A sequence of eye-wall development and weakening is likely over the next several days, which will lead to some fluctuation of intensity. However, Earl is moving through a low-shear, warm surface water environment which will keep the hurricane very strong. Category 4 strength appears feasible, if not likely, sometime within the next 24 to 48 hours. The track of Earl will still curve precariously close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and the Virginia coastline late Thursday into early Friday.

As a result, we expect extremely high surf and rip tides with potential coastal flooding as Earl passes by. However, we are still several days away from the system's pass, and the track could shift significantly by that time. The model tracks shown above are counting on the approach of a trough and surface cold front late Thursday and Friday to the East Coast from the west across the U.S. That means Earl would be steered to the northeast away from a direct landfall as the trough advances eastward. But if this trough slows or weakens, Earl would be able to keep moving west, likely as a major hurricane. We will continue to provide updates on the air and online throughout the day, every day this week! For your reference, here is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: