River Level On The James

The river level at Westham in Richmond is 3.4 feet. Although this is exceptionally low, it still doesn't make the list of the all-time lowest...yet. Here is the list:

1) 2.00 ft on 09/22/1966
2) 2.94 ft on 10/21/1968
3) 2.94 ft on 10/10/1970
4) 3.00 ft on 09/25/1936
5) 3.00 ft on 09/17/1943
6) 3.12 ft on 09/30/1981

You can find more about river levels at the following links:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=akq
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=va&w=map

Drought Likely Through Christmas

The severe drought conditions plaguing central Virginia right now will likely persist until at least Christmas. There has been no change to the drought conditions over the past week, as indicated by our weekly update map here:

But the big concern is when will this drought end? Because of a strengthening La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, expected rainfall through the end of the year in Virginia will likely not be enough to pull us out of the deep rainfall deficit. As of today, Richmond International Airport is 9.35" below average for our year-to-date precipitation. Most of this deficit is as a result of missing Summer rains, which were held off by persistent high pressure ridges inhibiting storm tracks from reaching us, and also limiting afternoon and evening storm development because excessive heat accelerated drying. July is usually our wettest month of the year, picking up 4.67". This year, we accumulated just 1.19". Our precipitation tally stands at 22.96" this year of liquid precipitation (including the melt-down from winter snow). On average, Richmond has an annual rainfall of 43.91" (1971-2000 normals). If we don't get another drop of rain the rest of this year it would be our second driest year on record. Here's the Top Ten Driest:

1.) 1941 22.91"
2.) 1876 27.65"
3.) 1970 28.29"
4.) 1965 29.76"
5.) 1921 30.59"
6.) 1930 31.26
7.) 1925 31.42"
8.) 1954 31.45"
9.) 2001 31.52"
10.)1877 31.71"

If rainfall is scant through Christmas, it's feasible, if not likely, this will be one of our driest years on record.

You can read a full summary of the drought impacts in our region here. You can also learn more about the long-range drought outlook forecast here.

Two Cat 4 Hurricanes At Once

After rapid, unexpected, explosive intensification late Tuesday into early Wednesday, Hurricane Julia reached Category 4 strength this morning, making it the most intense hurricane to ever occur so far to the east in the Atlantic Ocean. Julia is only a little weaker than Hurricane Igor, also at Category 4 strength today. Having two hurricanes of similar, major intensity at the same time is incredibly rare. This situation has only happened once before (on record). September 16, 1926 is the only other time we know of since 1900 that had two Category 4 hurricanes occurring simultaneously in the Atlantic basin (Hurricane #4 and the Great Miami Hurricane). In fact, getting two major (category 3 or stronger, if only briefly) hurricanes at the same time is rare to begin with. It's only happened nine previous times on record:

1933 (Storms #11 & #12)

1950 (Dog & Easy)

1951 (Easy & Fox)

1955 (Hilda & Ione)

1958 (Helene & Ilsa)

1961 (Carla and Debbie)

1964 (Dora &Ethel)

1969 (Camille & Debbie)

1999 (Floyd & Gert).

(Archive data released by the National Hurricane Center)

What is going on in the Atlantic right now is incredibly rare and noteworthy. (It is important, though, to also mention that we didn't have reliable satellite information on storms until after the space age, of course...meaning there may have been hurricanes well into the Atlantic like Julia that were missed or not properly recorded the first half of the 20th century). Both of these powerful hurricanes, Igor & Julia, will remain well away from the U.S. However, Bermuda is poised to receive a direct hit from Igor, which may still be at major hurricane strength when it passes over the tiny Atlantic island this weekend.