More Rain Coming...From The Tropics

A low pressure system in the Caribbean just south of Cuba is becoming better organized early this Tuesday morning. It could become a Tropical Depression or Storm at any time. The next name on our list this year is Nicole. Regardless of what happens with its intensity, we expect this low to track northeast over the next two days, passing over Cuba and Florida, pushing tropical moisture northeast into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday.

It looks like heavy rain will be possible in the Commonwealth mainly on Thursday as a result of this storm system tracking through our area. It will quickly exit northeast late Thursday, and a strong cold front will sweep through from the northwest Friday bringing our first true taste of Fall for the weekend into early next week.

Slight Risk For Severe Storms

Rounds of welcome rain have been moving through central Virginia overnight, but strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and tonight. Wind will be the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes could also develop. The strong upper-low pressure storm system responsible for our first significant rainfall since mid-August will lift northward Tuesday, ending our rain and storm chances mid-day. But while ample lift and moisture remain in our region, severe storms are possible. Don't be surprised if you wake up to thunder overnight tonight.

A second storm system will bring more rain late Wednesday and Thursday. This storm is currently in the Caribbean near Cuba, and is expected to track northward through Florida and along the Southeast coastline the next several days, overspreading tropical moisture into Virginia Wednesday and Thursday. You can see the white clouds south of Cuba and east of the Yucatan associated with that broad low pressure system this morning:

This system should result in more much-needed rain in drought-ridden central Virginia.

Watching The Caribbean

Tropical Depression Matthew continues to dissipate over southern Mexico this Sunday morning, but we will be monitoring the Caribbean south of Cuba over the next several days for a potential low pressure system developing. There is some indication that a new tropical system may organize in this region of the Caribbean by Wednesday, and track toward Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast later this week. However, this scenario is highly uncertain right now, as the system is currently non-existent. Still, we will be monitoring the region and provide updates on any potential impacts this might have for the Commonwealth by the end of the week.