Flash Flood Watch Tonight-Thursday

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for nearly the entire Commonwealth for heavy rain expected, mainly tonight through Thursday as Tropical Storm Nicole (just upgraded at 11AM) hurls tropical moisture into the region. Here is the visible satellite image of the storm (the surface center is moving over western Cuba now):

We are already getting our first rounds of rain this Wednesday morning as moisture surges from the Atlantic through the Southeast into Virginia. Periods of heavy rain will be likely off and on the rest of today, so keep your umbrella handy. You can see the cloud-cover expanding into Virginia here:

The prolonged heavy rain event will start overnight and continue most of Thursday as the tropical low pressure system tracks toward Virginia. The low itself will track over Virginia late Thursday into early Friday, ending our rain pre-dawn Friday. Tropical Storm Nicole will rapidly merge with the stalled front along the southeast coastline, which will only enhance moisture transport and heavy rainfall from the Carolinas into Virginia. In Virginia's watch area, 2"-4" is possible through Thursday, with locally lesser and higher amounts possible. Embedded thunderstorms overnight into Thursday would lead to higher local rainfall accumulations. Wind shouldn't be a major concern widespread, as this is a "weak" system wind-wise, with maximum sustained winds right now of 35 mph. In Virginia, we're expecting sustained winds of 10-20 mph in central Virginia, with 20-30 mph sustained winds in the Peninsulas, and 40mph sustained winds in the Bay and Eastern Shore. Flash flooding in heavily paved cities and poorly drained areas will be our main concern overnight through Thursday.

Tropical Depression #16 Forms

As expected, Tropical Depression #16 was officially designated this morning for the low we've been watching in the northwest Caribbean south of Cuba. TD 16 is just below Tropical Storm strength, and will likely reach that later today or tomorrow and be named Nicole. This system is expected to track over Cuba and southern Florida tomorrow, then hug along the Southeast US Thursday. Heavy rain is possible in the Commonwealth from late Wednesday through Thursday while this system interacts with the surface boundary that will stall along the coast today. This is the front moving through today associated with the potent low pressure system tracking north of us this morning.

More Rain Coming...From The Tropics

A low pressure system in the Caribbean just south of Cuba is becoming better organized early this Tuesday morning. It could become a Tropical Depression or Storm at any time. The next name on our list this year is Nicole. Regardless of what happens with its intensity, we expect this low to track northeast over the next two days, passing over Cuba and Florida, pushing tropical moisture northeast into the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday.

It looks like heavy rain will be possible in the Commonwealth mainly on Thursday as a result of this storm system tracking through our area. It will quickly exit northeast late Thursday, and a strong cold front will sweep through from the northwest Friday bringing our first true taste of Fall for the weekend into early next week.