Wintry Weather Possible Overnight

A light mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible overnight in central VA. I stopped our model data at 2 PM to show how the precipitation will expand over the area after midnight. Although the model shows rain in the green color, this rain will be falling into sub-freezing temps and will freeze on contact, creating a glaze of ice. The amounts will be light, but it doesn't take much ice to cause big problems, so take it easy out there tonight through early tomorrow. A massive winter storm will cripple much of the nation this week with several feet of snow and strong winds. Temperatures behind this system could stay below zero. We'll be on the warm side of this system Wednesday, with highs near 70 degrees and a chance of thunderstorms.

Update On Wintry Weather This Week

Warm air is going to surge into our area by midweek. The leading edge of this warm air will create a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet (ice pellets). The best chances to see this mix will be from 7 PM Monday until 7 AM Tuesday. In addition, it will generally stay along and west of I-95. I've posted some maps below to give you a timeline of the event. We should be in the clear by 10 AM Tuesday as the precip lifts north and temperatures rise into the mid 30s.






As you can see on the map below, the accumulating snows will stay well north of our area.


Another storm system will pass our area Friday into Saturday. Normally I would be worried about a storm moving in from the south along the coastline, however, right now it loooks like a rain event to me. There are two problems with this storm.

1. The track is too close to the coast
2. Cold air moves in too late (if at all)

I've posted a map of the ECMWF ensemble: a very reliable computer forecast. It has been consistent with this storm for the past couple days and brings rain to our area late Friday evening and into early Saturday. I think this is a plausible solution and will keep a 30% chance for rain on both Friday and Saturday.

Dense Freezing Fog This Morning

Patches of dense fog have developed across central and southeastern Virginia. Temperatures are currently below freezing, so the fog is freezing on anything detached from the ground. This could produce an icy glaze on bridges and overpasses, so use extra caution if you are on the roads this morning. I'm expecting the fog to lift and temperatures to rise above freezing between 9 and 10 this morning.