Winter Storm Update & End-of-Week System Preview

The far-reaching, historic storm system that blasted the nation's heartland yesterday is aiming for the Great Lakes and New England today, with continued heavy snow and whiteout conditions at times from strong winds. Here are some of the biggest snowfall totals from this storm system so far:

You can view more snowfall totals at the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. In the warm side of the storm, wind damage was common through the southern U.S. yesterday. You can view some of the storm reports at the Storm Prediction Center.

As of Wednesday morning, Blizzard Warnings (in red on the map) continue for parts of the Upper Midwest, with Winter Storm Warnings for most of New England:

This potent low pressure system will continue to track northeast, dumping its highest snowfall amounts just to the north of the low's center. This is the forecast snowfall from 7 a.m. Wednesday through Saturday evening:

Of course, that snow total you see in Chicago of 4.5" is what will fall on top of what already fell yesterday and overnight with blizzard conditions. Here's a breakdown of the rest of this system's life through Thursday:

Scattered rain showers will continue in central Virginia through about 10 a.m., and temperatures will soar through this afternoon as the low pressure pulls in much warmer air from the south into the Commonwealth. High temperatures will reach the 60s and low 70s!

Expect a warm and windy afternoon with winds shifting to the west as the low moves to our north and northeast. Most of central Virginia will have sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range with some higher gusts around 35 mph today, but the strongest winds in response to the low pressure system will occur in western Virginia. There is a Wind Advisory in effect from 11 a.m. through tonight for the counties highlighted in tan on the map below.

High profile vehicles traveling along I-81 today will certainly have a rough drive with these strong crosswinds.

After high temperatures this afternoon peak in the upper 60s and low 70s, the strong cold front associated with this low pressure storm system will sweep through the region after 7 p.m. Much colder air will move into central Virginia tonight, returning us to seasonable temperatures for the duration of the week.

Our next storm system will approach us from the south at the end of this week. It will not be nearly as strong as today's monster storm, but it will pull moisture from the south northward into Virginia on Friday. First, we'll notice the increase in cloud-cover from the south during the day.

Rain should begin moving into the Commonwealth late Friday evening, so most of Friday will be dry.

Rain will continue to be likely into Saturday.

At this time, it appears that the precipitation mode will be rain only for central Virginia. Here is the GFS model forecast sounding (vertical view of the atmosphere from the ground up...the right line is air temperature, the left line is dew point temperature) for Saturday morning, which clearly indicates rain (the right-slanted blue 0 degree Celsius line is the freezing line):

Even the forecast sounding by Saturday night at 7 p.m. still has surface temperatures above freezing and the rain ending:

If colder air on the backside of the system can arrive quickly enough Saturday afternoon, we may see a brief changeover to light snow, but that scenario does not appear likely right now.

Icy Spots This Morning, Rain & Storms Wednesday

Light freezing drizzle and mist persisted overnight into early morning in central Virginia while temperatures remain in the 28-32 degree range. This light precipitation is producing a thin glaze of ice on vehicles, elevated objects (like steps or porches), and also on pavement. Some light fog is also occurring early this morning in central Virginia, which is freezing as well. Allow extra time to defrost your vehicle and warm it properly. Keep that heater blasting the front windshield during your commute so that any precipitation that hits your glass will melt instead of freezing and inhibiting your driving visibility.

Temperatures should rise above freezing around 9 a.m., about the same time this light precipitation should be wrapping up in central Virginia. The rest of today will be mostly cloudy, but seasonable in the upper 40s for highs.

A potent low pressure storm system is tracking through the Southern Plains early this Tuesday morning, producing blizzard conditions in Oklahoma. Blizzard warnings extend northeast through eastern Kansas, Missouri, much of Iowa and Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Wisconsin and Michigan (all the areas in red on the map below). The pink areas are Winter Storm Warnings, and the purple are Winter Weather Advisories.

This system should produce more than a foot of snow in some locations, as pointed out in the purple swath in this accumulated snowfall map:

Here's a breakdown of the track of this low pressure system as it moves from the southern plains northeast over the next 48 hours:


As you can see, Virginia will be in the "warm sector" of the storm system, where the low pressure system pulls much warmer, more moist air northward into the Mid-Atlantic from the south. We will get a round of rain and even some thunderstorms starting late Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. Here's the expected rainfall accumulations in central Virginia:

Wintry Weather Possible Overnight

A light mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible overnight in central VA. I stopped our model data at 2 PM to show how the precipitation will expand over the area after midnight. Although the model shows rain in the green color, this rain will be falling into sub-freezing temps and will freeze on contact, creating a glaze of ice. The amounts will be light, but it doesn't take much ice to cause big problems, so take it easy out there tonight through early tomorrow. A massive winter storm will cripple much of the nation this week with several feet of snow and strong winds. Temperatures behind this system could stay below zero. We'll be on the warm side of this system Wednesday, with highs near 70 degrees and a chance of thunderstorms.