More Heavy Rain Likely Wed-Thur

More heavy rain is likely Wednesday and Thursday from a storm system developing Tuesday morning in the Southern Plains. A Flood Watch is already in effect in advance of this storm system for the Virginia counties highlighted in green on the map below:

The center of the storm system (the L for low) will track to our north, pulling in moisture and warmer temperatures from the south.

Rain should be nearly constant for western parts of the state Wednesday and Thursday, which is why they will be able to accumulate the highest rainfall amounts.

But Thursday the rest of central Virginia will have a shot at some heavy downpours and thunderstorms as a result of the instability generated ahead of the approaching surface cold front and the ample moisture and warmer temperatures in the 60s surging northward into the Commonwealth.

Instability, as shown below by the CAPE value (Convective Available Potential Energy), should be sufficient to support strong to severe thunderstorms in central Virginia Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging straight-line winds (of the likes we saw Sunday in parts of the state) will be our primary threat again on Thursday. However, the Tidewater region of Southeast Virginia may also have the threat for a few tornadoes.

By the time the rain ends from west to east late Thursday night, one to three inches of accumulation looks likely for much of central and western Virginia.

Flood Warning for James River in Richmond

Sunday's heavy rainfall (see previous blog entry for a summary), especially in western Virginia, is heading downstream. The James River is expected to swell above the 12.0 FT flood stage (Richmond-Westham gauge, near the Huguenot Bridge) Tuesday morning and max out at 13.2 FT at about 10 a.m. Tuesday.

At that level, about 20 acres of lowlands near the gauge will flood, but no residences in the vicinity will be affected along the river. You can check the latest River level and forecast by clicking here. With the rising level, and likely debris that will be coming downstream, activity in the James is discouraged in Richmond until the river falls back below flood stage Wednesday morning. Extra caution is also advised along the riverbanks as erosion can occur.

Sunday 3/6 - Storm Recap & Rain Totals

Here are radar images from earlier today when the storms raced through the area. Notice some "bowing" of the storms by 7:30, which is typically indicative of powerful straight line winds. There were several reports of wind damage in Chesterfield County, especially near Matoaca and Chester. There were also damage reports in Greensville, Charles City and New Kent Counties.





This storm system dumped a lot of rain today, especially for our western communities, where totals ranged from 1 to 3".