Virginia has a slight risk for severe t-storms Monday

This week we are in a for a stretch of Summer-like weather with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. We will have just enough moisture and lift to generate mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms most days. Monday afternoon and evening there is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for all of Virginia.

I expect thunderstorms to initially develop in western Virginia during the peak afternoon heating, then intensify as they track east-southeast through central Virginia this evening. The threats associated with these storms, which may combine into one squall line, will include damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, large hail an inch in diameter (quarter-size hail), frequent lightning and torrential downpours. Although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, that threat appears low today. Thunderstorms are expected to exit east into the Bay after 9PM, with quiet weather overnight.

Here is an hour-by-hour forecast during the time storms are expected in central Virginia.
4PM:

5PM:

6PM:

7PM:

8PM:

9PM:

10PM:


Be sure to "Like" Chief Meteorologist Zach Daniel's Facebook page by clicking here and also Meteorologist Carrie Rose's Facebook page by clicking here to receive early online updates on our severe threat today and this evening. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

NOAA issues 2011 hurricane forecast

The scientists at the Climate Prediction Center, in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center and NOAA, issued their official 2011 Hurricane Forecast for the Atlantic Basin today. As the CBS 6 Storm Team expected, this is an above-average forecast for the tropical season, which begins June 1 and continues through November 30.

2011 NOAA Forecast:

• 12-18 Named Storms (39 mph+ sustained winds)
• 6-10 of those will become Hurricanes (74 mph+ sustained winds)
• 3-6 of those hurricanes will become Major Hurricanes of Category 3-5 (111 mph+ winds)

An Average Tropical Season:

• 11 Named Storms
• 6 of those become Hurricanes
• 2 become Major Hurricanes of Category 3-5

You can view the full list of storm names for the Atlantic Basin by clicking here.

Watch this video for more details on the forecast and what impacts the tropical season tends to have for us here in Virginia:



The above-average forecast is primarily as a result of the following factors:

• We continue to be in a "high activity era" of enhanced tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin
• Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic where tropical cyclones form are currently two degrees Fahrenheit above-average. This warmer-than-normal water will serve as an excellent fuel source for developing storms.
• Even though La Nina in the equatorial Pacific is weakening, lower wind shear should linger in the Atlantic into Hurricane Season.

Visit the Red Cross by clicking here to learn how to prepare for a natural disaster like a tropical system. And Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.

Severe T-Storm Watch in effect until 9PM Wednesday

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for part of central Virginia until 9 PM Wednesday for the counties highlighted in yellow on this map:

A set-up similar to the past two days persists in Virginia with a slow-moving upper-level low pressure system pulling in rich Atlantic moisture and providing both lift and spin for storms that can develop this afternoon during the warmest part of the day. With all of these dynamics and the cool air aloft, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Threats include damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, large hail up to the size of ping pong balls (1.5" diameter), and even an isolated, brief tornado or two. Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.