Heat Advisory Friday for most of Virginia

A Heat Advisory is in effect Friday for most of the Commonwealth from Noon to 8PM for heat indices ranging 105-110 degrees in the shade. Today's forecast high temperature of 101 degrees in Richmond could tie our record high for this date, July 29th, which was set just a year ago in 2010. This end-of-week heat wave is in response to an expanding upper-level high pressure ridge into our region again, much like a week ago today, with the jet stream remaining well to our north. Southerly flow allowed moisture content to also creep back up high enough to warrant this Heat Advisory:

This isn't our first dangerously hot and humid day of the year, but in case you need the reminders of how to stay safe today, click here for an excellent summary by the American Red Cross. This may be a great page to print off and post for your workplace, home or daycare center!

In addition to the heat and humidity, there is also a Code Orange Air Quality Alert in effect for the Richmond and Petersburg metro areas and surrounding counties in the heart of central Virgina.

A Code Orange means that it is unhealthy for sensitive groups (those with respiratory conditions like asthma, people with heart ailments, older adults, and children) to engage in heavy or prolonged outdoor activity. You can learn more about Air Quality by clicking here.

Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Tropical Storm Don is en route to Texas

Our fourth tropical system this year in the Atlantic Basin is tracking slowly through the Gulf of Mexico early Thursday morning after becoming Tropical Storm Don on Wednesday east of the Yucatan Peninsula. As of this update, here are the details on Don:

Although Don is barely at tropical storm strength with winds just faster than 39 mph, it will be moving into a favorable environment for intensification over the next day. Sea surface temperatures in the entire Gulf of Mexico are warmer than 80 degrees Fahrenheit (anything red or darker on the map below), which is precisely what a tropical system requires as fuel for intensification and storm maintenance.

In addition to the low-level fuel, upper-level wind shear should be minimal over the next few days as Don chugs northwestward toward the Texas Gulf Coast. That low wind shear means Don should be able to better organize Thursday and early Friday, and also intensify. The forecast track certainly indicates an increase in wind speeds associated with Don, as shown here:

It does not appear at this time that Don will be able to intensify to hurricane strength (74mph+ winds) before it makes landfall somewhere along the Texas Gulf Coast. A Texas landfall is the most likely of the forecast scenarios, which are shown here in a "spaghetti plot" along with the official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

You can learn more about the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by clicking here. We are now entering what is typically the most active part of the tropical season, from August through October:

Tropical Storm Don should bring much-needed rainfall to a drought-stricken part of the country. The drought in Texas is historic, and may end up being one of the worst, if not the worst, drought on record for them. Here are the latest drought conditions for the Lone Star State:

And just to give you some comparison, here is Virginia's latest Drought Monitor, where our conditions have been steadily improving through the Summer:

The forecast for the drought through the Southern U.S. is varied, but generally the Southern Plains into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana are not expected to improve over the next few months.

This is why Tropical Storm Don may be a most welcome visitor to Texas, because they could sure use the rain, even if it comes with some strong winds.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Heat & Storms

ANOTHER 100° DAY

We hit 100° for the second day in a row across much of the area today. Richmond International Airport officially hit 101°, which was 2 degrees shy of the record. Heat index values during the afternoon ranged from about 100 to 120°.

GUSTY STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL

Strong and a few severe thunderstorms moved through the area between 3 and 7 pm. Thunderstorm wind damage was reported in Amelia, where some trees were down.
The slow-moving storms dropped heavy rainfall in some spots. The heaviest estimates from doppler radar showed some 2-3"+ totals across a large portion of Hanover county.

While the muggy environment provided ample fuel for torrential rainfall, the storms were scattered enough that many locations did not even see one drop of rain.

HUGE TEMPERATURE DROP

The thunderstorms also provided a temporary cooling effect. CBS 6's Wayne Covil drove from the James River Bridge to the I-64/Broad St/Parham Rd area just after 5:30pm. He reported that the temperature dropped from 98° to 78° in a span of about 15 minutes as he traveled westward.

THE HEAT CONTINUES

We will see just a very minor drop in temperatures for Sunday. Highs should fall just short of 100°. The combination of heat and humidity will produce heat index values between 100-110° -- slightly less than the past few days. For this reason, the excessive heat warning has expired and been replaced with a heat advisory for Sunday.

MINOR RELIEF IN SIGHT

A cold front will pass through the area Monday night and Tuesday, allowing less humid air to filter into the area. Highs will be just a bit cooler (lower 90s) and humidity levels should drop a bit (dew points dropping from the mid 70s to the low/mid 60s). This will be short-lived, however -- an increase in heat and humidity will return by the end of the week.