Irene strengthens into a Hurricane Monday morning

As of 5AM Eastern Time Monday, Irene strengthened just north of Puerto Rico to a Category One hurricane, our first hurricane of the 2011 season.

Hurricane Irene is aiming for the Bahamas mid-week, then should hug along the east coast of Florida Friday:

Into this weekend (Saturday and Sunday), the outer edges of Irene should begin spreading northward into Virginia, bringing us rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially some severe weather. Forecast tracks a week from now indicate with good consistency that Irene's remnants will pass over Virginia:

We can expect heavy rainfall, which can lead to flooding (particularly in lower-lying parts of Virginia), potentially brief, weak tornadoes, and strong wind gusts (depending on how much Irene weakens as it moves farther inland through the Carolinas) that can knock out power.

You can keep up with the latest updates on Hurricane Irene using our CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker Tool by clicking here.

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this upcoming weekend, I strongly advise you to make solid indoor backup plans now. In addition, we should all prepare for potential power outages and flooding this weekend. Here are some items you should have ready:

As a reminder, we are now in the thick of what is climatologically our most active time of the hurricane season. Heightened tropical activity will likely continue through October:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Irene Visits Next Weekend?

Updated computer model forecasts continue to bring Irene into the southeastern United States by the end of this week.

The exact location of the landfall still remains to be seen, but most computer models are locking into bringing the remnants of Irene into our area by late Saturday and Sunday of next weekend.

If Irene holds together, this could mean a significant rainfall for the area. Rain deficits continue to be quite big: 1.87" below normal for the month, 3.65" below normal since June 1, and 4.71" below normal for the year.

Forecasts will continue to be updated during the week as the system gets closer.
Here is a computer model projection of rainfall for next Sunday:

Irene Has Formed

Tropical Storm Irene formed Saturday evening east of the Windward and Leeward Islands. A hurricane hunter aircraft investigated the tropical system, and found a closed circulation with winds of 50 mph.

The forecast track includes Irene becoming a hurricane by Monday afternoon. However, Irene will pass over some land -- Haiti, the Dominican Republic & Cuba -- which will weaken her.

Irene should emerge north of Cuba late Wednesday, and could hit southern Florida by late Thursday. As of now, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting that Irene will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall.

Intensity forecasts, especially 3-7 days out, and including movement over land, are extremely difficult. Updated forecasts will modify and zero in on the track & intensity over the next few days.

Here is a link to the National Hurricane Center's current advisory & forecast track for Irene.

Below is a plot of the various computer models showing potential paths of Irene between now and the weekend. The National Hurricane Center bases much of its forecast on the consensus of these models.