Tropics Update: Maria Forms and Nate Developing

The tropics are teeming with activity today, and right on schedule, as the peak of hurricane season arrives this weekend. Hurricane Katia continues to move northwestward, but all models are in very good agreement of a northerly and then northeasterly turn over the next 24 to 48 hours. The main threat to the U.S. will continue to be large waves and dangerous rip tides. Tropical Storm Maria formed this morning in the central Atlantic, and is expected to be slow to strengthen as it heads west-northwestward over the next several days. Here's the latest official track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

The system is expected to be at roughly 70 degrees west and 23 degrees north and on a northwesterly track on Monday morning. An upper-level trough is depicted by some of the medium range models to be in place which would help to erode the subtropical ridge and impart a more northerly turn to Maria by the middle of next week. There is a quick shift, however, to more of a ridge across the eastern U.S. later in the week, which could be more favorable for an East Coast landfall. Needless to say, Maria will be in interesting storm to track over the next week, as much could change in the eventual course. Another system is in the developing stage in the Gulf of Mexico. Here's the latest spaghetti plot of model guidance for this disturbance:

This disturbance is not even a tropical depression at the time of this blog entry, but given the intensity forecast below, there's the likelihood of this becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen and then Tropical Storm Nate.

I'll continue to track these systems and bring you updates over the next several days. -Zach

Heavy rain likely over the next several days

Heavy rainfall is likely over the next several days in central Virginia, and in much of the Eastern U.S., as a result of an upper trough swinging out of the Upper Midwest and pulling in the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee from the Gulf Coast states. Widespread rainfall totals of 1"-3" are likely over the next several days, with higher totals up to 6"-10" in some locations.

Flash Flood Watches extend from the Canadian border in the Northeast all the way through Virginia and down to the Gulf Coast.

Our heaviest rainfall should occur Tuesday afternoon, overnight, and through Wednesday, when we have our Flash Flood Watch in effect for parts of west, southwest, and north-central Virginia.

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Third-biggest aftershock rattles Virginia Thursday morning

The third-biggest aftershock since "the big one" a week ago Tuesday woke many Virginians up a little early Thursday, September 1 at 5:09 AM EDT as a magnitude 3.4 earthquake centered slightly northeast of the town of Cuckoo, south of Mineral, occurred. This aftershock has been reviewed by a seismologist, and you can read their full report by clicking here.

USGS Topographic Map, Resolution: 16.0 meters/pixel

Here is the ranking now of our earthquake and the biggest aftershocks since last Tuesday:

This morning's magnitude 3.4 ties the aftershock from August 24th, less than 24 hours after the initial 5.8 earthquake. There have been an official total of 22 aftershocks in the Central Virginia Seismic Zone since "the big one." As of this blog posting, people are reporting into the USGS feeling this morning's aftershock as far north as Baltimore and into southern Virginia from around Lynchburg to Chesapeake.

More aftershocks are likely in the coming weeks, but are not likely to surpass the magnitude of the first earthquake, 5.8.
Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose