Winter Outlook

The National Weather Service recently released its new winter outlook. One factor that is looked at is whether we have an El Nino (warming of ocean water off the west coast of South America near the equator) or a La Nina (cooling of ocean water off the west coast of South America near the equator).

It looks like La Nina conditions will last for a period, and this affects the overall jet stream pattern. This change in the jet stream also produces certain winter weather effects in different parts of the country.

However, Virginia is in one zone where there are no consistently true climatological effects when it comes to La Nina. So, this would give the basic first glance that our winter could be on the average or normal side. For the Richmond metro area, that means about 10 inches of snow.

A lot of other factors affect how the winter turns out, such as patterns in the arctic and north Atlantic, but at this point, it is too early to tell if any particular pattern will lock into place for any period of time.

More On The October 13th Tornadoes

The National Weather Service has issued its full report on the October 13th tornadoes.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/severe/oct_13_2011/index.html

I spy a meteor shower!

If you can bear the chilly early Saturday morning temperatures in the 40s in central Virginia (and get yourself out of bed extra early in the first place!), then you could see one of the most reliable meteor showers of the year, the Orionids. Every year, the Earth in its orbit around the Sun passes through the debris left behind by Halley's Comet. At its peak early Saturday, October 22nd, you can expect to see about 15 meteors flashing across the sky per hour. Here's a sky map guide from NASA:

(A map of the morning sky on Saturday, Oct. 22nd at 5:30 a.m. local time, viewed facing southeast. Credit: NASA)

If you're in doubt, just look to the upper right of the Moon, and that should get you in the general direction of the meteors.

Stargazing tips:

• Bring blankets and extra layers to stay warm!
• Allow your eyes at least 15-20 minutes to adjust to the night sky to properly pick out the meteors entering the Earth's atmosphere.
• Be patient! With a meteor rate of just 15 meteors per hour, you may go a while without seeing anything flashing across the night sky (other than airplanes).
• Take snacks and water. You could be out there for a few hours watching the show.
• Best viewing window will be from 1AM through Dawn Saturday, October 22.
  

Click here to track the meteor count live!
Enjoy!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose