Update on rain and snow Wednesday in Virginia

A slow-moving storm system will finally clear the eastern U.S. by Thursday morning. This Wednesday morning, though, rain continues to track northeast through the western and northern parts of our state, producing some flooding problems in low-lying areas and along creeks and streams. Storm total rainfall should range one to two inches in this part of Virginia, which is why a Flood Watch will remain in effect until 7PM.

For the southeastern half of Virginia, rain totals will remain an inch or less, with the lowest totals at just a quarter-inch in Hampton Roads.

As the surface cold front sweeps southeast this afternoon and evening, much colder air will surge into the region behind it. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, with deep, cold air reaching western Virginia before the precipitation ends. This will change the rain to snow, allowing for as much as three to six inches of snowfall accumulation in elevations above 1500 feet! Therefore, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for that part of Virginia through tonight.

It still looks like the rain will end in central Virginia before the deepest, cold air can settle into the region. There will be a tiny window of opportunity between 10 PM to just after Midnight for the ending rain to briefly change over to snow. Nothing will stick, though, as both air and ground temperatures will still be well above freezing in central Virginia, and remain above freezing into Thursday morning. Here's one forecast demonstrating what snow may fall, but likely not all of this will end up sticking (except in the higher elevations of western VA):

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm!
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Rain/Snow Mix Possible Early Thursday

This definitely won't be one to write home about, but enough cold air could arrive in central and western Virginia early enough Thursday morning to change rain to snow or a rain/snow mix before ending. While it looks like a good bet for snow across northern and western Virginia, our chances of seeing anything in the metro are much lower. Above is one model depiction of accumulated snowfall. I agree with the totals across northern and western Virginia, but surface temperatures will be far too warm (37-42 degrees) across central sections for the snow to stick. For reference, the pinks are a trace to 2", cyan 2-3", yellow 3-4", and on up. At least we have a chance to see a little wet snow if nothing else. The forecast atmospheric temperature profile (sounding) in the metro area Thursday around sunrise is favorable for snow to fall while in the process of melting, if there is still rain falling at that time. There's a good chance most, if not all ,of the rain will move northeast of the area by sunrise Thursday, so most of us will miss seeing whatever happens. I'll have another update on this tomorrow. Have a great Tuesday! ZD

2011 Tropical Season Ends Today

The third most active tropical season on record ends today, November 30th. This 2011 season featured 19 tropical systems, which ties with three other seasons (1887, 1995, and 2010) for the number three spot. The most active tropical season on record is 2005. Records of tropical activity date back to 1851 for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf basins.

Out of the 19 tropical systems, seven were hurricanes with at least 74 mph winds or stronger. Hurricane Irene was the first hurricane to make a direct U.S. landfall in three years (Hurricane Ike hit southeast Texas in 2008). Irene first made landfall in North Carolina, dashing the Outer Banks and eastern North Carolina before hugging eastern Virginia's coastline and producing widespread wind and flooding damage in the Commonwealth. Irene continued into New England, becoming the most significant tropical cyclone to affect the northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.



The best news out of this season was that no major hurricanes made U.S. landfall, which marks our sixth straight year without any landfalling major hurricanes in the country! Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was the last one.

Not all of the tropical systems received names. Highlighted in yellow are the names used this season:

There was also one system called Tropical Depression Ten, which never made it to Tropical Storm strength (which is when it would have received a name). That is how we get up to 19 tropical cyclones this year, even though only 18 names were used from the list. Tropical Storm Sean was our last named system to occur in early November.

This above-average tropical season may result in part because of better satellite technology available than in earlier years to better investigate systems in the open waters too far away from hurricane hunter aircraft or other reliable sampling techniques. This allowed tropical meteorologists to better asses systems and categorize them.

An average tropical season in the Atlantic Basin has approximately 11 tropical systems, 6 of which become hurricanes, 2-3 of which become major hurricanes. Here's a look at an average season's progression, peaking September 10th:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose