Tracking Our Sub-Freezing Wind Chills

The coldest and driest air mass of the season continues to move into the region this evening, and with a persistent and brisk northwesterly wind, the wind chill in Richmond and areas to the north and west will remain below freezing for a fairly long duration. I drew the red line above to indicate what I think the wind chill will register over the next few days, and also drew a light blue horizontal line to show the freezing line at 32 degrees. We'll be close to seeing wind chill values crack the freezing mark Wednesday afternoon, but it's likely we'll experience wind chills at or below freezing for about 63 hours, especially in areas north and west of here. The deep trough responsible for this cold snap will shift east of the area on Thursday, giving us a break from the cold heading into the weekend. And yes, I expect us to be in the low 60s on Saturday, so the confusion to vegetation and wardrobe planning will continue. As for any precipitation, the chances are very slim, with just a slight chance for a little light rain on Sunday. The medium range models continue to show flashes of an east coast winter storm in the extended period, but nothing very focused at the moment. I'll keep an eye on it and let you know if something looks promising. In the meantime bundle up, and check back for another update tomorrow. -Zach

Weather Blog: Thoughts Heading into 2012

I went running before work today through the Museum District and The Fan, and was reminded of how great a variety of weather we get each year in Richmond. It's the next to last day in December, and the high was nearly 60 degrees with lots of sunshine. Four days from now, we'll be lucky to hit 35, and the wind chill will stay below freezing. I came to the River City in 2007, and was told by several of my colleagues in Plains that the experience of being a chief meteorologist would be good, but that I would soon become bored with the weather. They were half right. I witnessed some wild weather in my 8 years of working in Tornado Alley, the stuff that gives you nightmares, and while we don't see the extremes here in The Commonwealth, we see a greater sampling of weather types than most areas in the country. In 2011, we had a couple of minor snows, several tornado outbreaks, a hurricane, an earthquake, and a good mix of hot and cold days. Then you throw in days like today, and I have nothing to complain about. I'm married with three small children now, and the quiet days are as exciting for me now as the big weather events. I feel fortunate to be here.
A few notes on the weather over the next week: the disturbance tonight will bring little more than a few showers to the area, and no wintry weather. The cold blast is still on schedule to arrive Monday and stay in place through late Wednesday. There continues to be a signal for a disturbance to move through the area on Thursday, possibly bringing the area a few flurries or snow showers, but nothing to write home about. The storm track will become more meridional "north/south" over the next two weeks, which should result in more temperature swings and perhaps a storm system in there as well. Nothing points to any key storm at this time, but as time goes on, a storm will eventually show itself. Have a fun and safe holiday weekend, and make a resolution this year to better your life and those around you. I'm going to refrain from blogging over the weekend, but I'll be back at it on Monday. In the meantime, I'll post quick updates on my FACEBOOK and TWITTER pages. Hope to see you there. -Zach

Tracking the Cold & Chances for Snow

I awoke this morning to the rumbling of an idling oil truck in the alley behind my home, perhaps a sign that the word has spread that colder days are ahead and it's time to fill up. The deep trough that will dig into the eastern U.S early next week will bring an air mass with a real bite into the region. It's likely that much of central and northern Virginia will see highs remaining in the upper 30s, which isn't at all unusual for the first week of January, but an abrupt change from the relatively mild fall and winter we have seen to this point. The overnight lows during this period will fall into the upper teens and low 20s. As I mentioned in my post from yesterday, the chance for snow with this pattern change appears slim to none, with only a slight chance of seeing a quick burst of light snow early Monday. If you're scheduled to be at work that day, you'll be working. We'll have another possibility for snow later in the week that looks pretty interesting. Both the GFS and Euro operational models are indicating the presence of an upper-level wave that will dive south out of the upper Midwest and move just south of Virginia on Thursday. This isn't an ideal setup by any stretch for snow, but it's the type of scenario that can become more favorable with time. You'll note my confidence in seeing anything isn't very high by the 20% chance I have in my 7-day forecast. I'll peruse the model suites again this evening and track the movements of birds and small rodents in the morning. Check back for another update tomorrow, and if you haven't already done so, click here to drop by my facebook page and click the "like" button. Have a great Friday. -Zach