Florida Not Living Up To Its Name

Florida is nicknamed "The Sunshine State," but this week it is not living up to that title. Heavy rain is inundating the entire state right now, as a stalled cold front interacts with a developing area of low pressure drifting through the region. So far, widespread 2"-4" have fallen in Florida this week, and here is what Floridians can expect over the next 24 hours alone.

That red bulls eye in Northeast Florida is up to 5.5" of rain possible from today into early Wednesday morning.

And by this weekend, check out the totals this low pressure system will be capable of producing over the next five days:

Wow, that's more than 10" of rain possibly along the Northeast Florida coast!

As the low tracks westward into the Gulf of Mexico, it could become the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Ana. It would have to develop at least partial tropical characteristics to earn that designation, though, and it may end up being nothing more than a prolific rain-producing low pressure system passing through the Gulf States this week. However, because of at least the slight potential for tropical cyclone development, the National Hurricane Center has been keeping an eye on the system (well, technically the low over the Bahamas is being absorbed into the low over Florida, but they're watching it).

In case you're wondering, here's the full list of names for the 2009 season, which official begins June 1st.

--Carrie

Tuesday Morning Chill On The Way

The cold front that moved through the Commonwealth Sunday left a noticeably cooler, drier airmass in place Monday, and not only here, but also across our region. Check out the low temperatures this morning (click image to enlarge), which dipped into the upper 30's in western Virginia.

The cold front made it into Northern Florida this morning, and as of this post, was halfway through the Sunshine State.

So it's fair to say this was a pretty strong front. Behind that front, high pressure will move into the Mid-Atlantic at the surface, keeping winds light overnight. With the cooler, drier airmass in place, combined with clearing skies, we should have a pretty chilly night Monday into Tuesday morning. Frost Advisories are in effect Tuesday morning from 3-9 a.m. for far western and north-central Virginia, where low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-30's overnight. A few spots will probably reach the freezing mark, too.
In Central Virginia, we are expecting lows Tuesday morning in the upper 30's and low 40's.

--Carrie

Update On The Tropics

I just got done looking at the latest data, and it still looks like a low pressure will develop off the western coast of Florida early Wednesday.



There will be an upper-level circulation associated with this low so it will not start as a tropical system. In addition, it will be completely cut off from the jet stream (which will be all the way in Canada), so it will have an erratic track.



However, if this low continues to drift into the warm waters of the Gulf Of Mexico, then it could begin to develop more tropical characteristics (i.e. become a sub-tropical or tropical storm). A lot can change in the coming days, but we will continue to monitor this closely because it could become the first named storm of the season...Ana.