Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Update on Potential Tropical Storm


A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft was unable to detect a closed circulation with the tropical disturbance located north of Puerto Rico this afternoon. Conditions appear favorable, however, for the further development of this system into a tropical depression, and perhaps a tropical storm. The posted image shows the very latest plot of computer model guidance tracks of this system.

Next Tropical System Possible


An area of tropical convection 300 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico is becoming better organized Tuesday morning, and has a high probability of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are expected to have minimal shear, allowing the system to develop a surface low and focus for organized convection. Currently movement of the convection is to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Indications are that this system, like last weekend's Hurricane Bill, will pass in between Bermuda and the Outer Banks this weekend.
If this does become a Tropical Storm, it will be named Danny.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Heavy Thunderstorms Overnight

Strong thunderstorms with torrential downpours moved northeast overnight through Central Virginia, with the highest rain amounts stretching from Campbell Co., through the northwest half of the Richmond Metro, and into the northern parts of the Middle Peninsula and Northern Neck. In this swath, rain totals range widespread 1" to 2", but northeast of the Metro into the western Peninsulas, local totals up to around 3" occurred. Alan in Tappahannock reported 3" from the overnight storms, with pea-sized hail. That rain total added onto the 5" of rain received in Tappahannock Saturday! These storms were, for the most part, below severe limits with gusts up to 45mph and frequent lightning. Trees were reported down in Goochland County on Manakin Road, Broad Street, and Three Chopt Road about four miles north-northeast of Sabot. Because of the heavy rain in a short amount of time, widespread ponding on roads occurred, and poorly drained areas experienced minor flooding. The rest of today, there is a slight chance for a few isolated showers and storms.

There were a couple of severe thunderstorms, though, that did occur overnight. One moved through Westmoreland County between 4 and 5 a.m., and produced some wind damage one mile north of Kinsale. Numerous trees were blown down, roof damage occurred, and quarter size hail was reported. Some of the hail was still on the ground four hours later! This severe storm did have weak rotation indicated at times while it was moving through the county, but an official survey from the National Weather Service determined that straight-line winds were likely responsible for the damage. An earlier severe storm in Prince Edward County blew a few trees down on Hwy 460 about three miles east-southeast of Farmville.