Fall Freeze Stats & Possible Cool Plunge?

Some farmers have already mentioned to me their thoughts are trending toward the first Fall frost/freeze. Some are predicting an earlier frost or freeze than average, based on personal observations ranging from nuts to the activity of certain birds or animals. I am always fascinated by these nuggets of observational experience. Here are the climatological values for the first Fall freeze for Richmond:

Average First Fall Freeze (reaching 32 degrees F): October 29

Earliest First Fall Freeze on record: October 3, 1974

Latest First Fall Freeze on record: December 2, 1985

But maybe the farmers are onto something. As Aaron mentioned over the weekend, the long-range weather pattern is showing some indication that a strong cold front will move into Central Virginia around mid-October. Based on the latest data, it appears this strong cold front may arrive in Virginia around October 13-14th. The coldest temperatures would affect New England, but it does appear that we have a good chance of getting some of the cold plunge in the Commonwealth, too.

We'll be keeping an eye on this developing weather pattern!

--Carrie

Grace In The History Books

Grace has been absorbed Tuesday by a frontal boundary in the Northeast Atlantic, losing its tropical characteristics and weakening. The remnants of Grace will bring rough weather for that part of the Atlantic while continuing to be swept along with the approaching cold front.

Grace's remnants are moving north-northeast along this boundary, and it looks like the timing of the cold front and what's left of Grace will bring heavy rain to Central England later Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Grace: Cheerio To The UK

Based on long-range estimates of Tropical Storm Grace, the extra-tropical remnants of Grace will likely grace the British Isles Wednesday and Thursday. By that time, Grace will have weakened its maximum sustained winds, and also have lost its tropical characteristics. Still, Grace's remnants will be a strong low-pressure system sweeping through parts of Ireland and Britain.


Winds right now are about 70 mph sustained, and Grace is a rather tiny storm with tropical storm force winds extending only about 50 miles away from the center.
In fact, you can already see Tropical Storm Grace on the UK's regional satellite image:

You can see the eye of Grace in the bottom left of this image.