Ida Almost A Hurricane

Ida has quickly strengthened now that it has moved back off land and over warm water. Winds are now sustained at 70 mph, so it is almost a category one hurricane. It still looks like Ida will take a northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple days. During this time, it will encounter some strong shear, which will inhibit growth. Nonetheless, this storm should become a hurricane tomorrow.

It's still too early to pinpoint Ida's impact on the Mid-Atlantic, but the latest data has some of the remnants bringing us rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The key to this forecast will be the timing of a front that will deflect Ida's remnants eastward. If the front slows down, then the rain chances will increase, if the front speeds up, then we will see little or no rain.

We will continue to monitor the situation and have more updates in the coming days!

Freeze Warning Saturday Morning

A Freeze Warning (light blue counties) will be in effect Saturday morning from 3 a.m. to 8 a.m. for parts of Central and Eastern Virginia. Counties to the west of the warned area have already experienced their first freeze of the season, often on multiple days. But this may be the first light freeze of the season for the warned counties Saturday.

The coldest temperature at RIC so far this season has been 35 degrees, which occurred on October 20. Temperatures in the Richmond metro should fall to right around the freezing mark around sunrise Saturday. High pressure currently over Kentucky and Tennesee Friday morning will continue to head east toward Virginia today. Northwest winds will also continue into Central Virginia Friday, reinforcing the cooler, drier airmass in the region. With clear skies, light winds, and drier air in place with this surface high pressure, overnight radiational cooling should be effective enough to allow most of Central Virginia to experience a widespread frost and light freeze.

Will Ida Affect Central Virginia?

Ida has weakened from a category 1 hurricane to a minimal tropical storm over eastern Nicaragua, and is producing flooding rainfall with the potential for dangerous mudslides. Ida will move northward tonight into eastern Honduras and will probably weaken to a tropical depression by Friday morning. There is the potential for Ida to emerge into the western Caribbean on Saturday and to once again become a tropical storm. Extended forecast models indicate a continued motion to the north over the next several days, bringing the remnants of Ida into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. The moisture might then be pulled into a storm system moving across the central U.S. and into Virginia. Our chance of rain next Tuesday night would be from a combination of lift from the upper-level system and moisture from Ida, a system that is currently all the way down in Nicaragua.