Unseasonably Cold Temperatures

Unseasonably cold weather will linger through the weekend into next week as a result of the deep low pressure trough stationed over the eastern half of the U.S. The image below is a view of the upper trough looking down onto the Northern Hemisphere, showing the source region of the trough in Canada all the way into the Southeast U.S.:

This means cold air continues to plunge into the northern Plains and upper Midwest from north-central Canada. While modification of the Canadian airmass does occur as it moves southeast, it is moving over a lot of snowcover, which helps keep the air cold.

Streamlines show us how the air is moving, and you can see a stout flow from the upper Midwest over the Appalachian chain into Virginia. That means cold Canadian air is plunging into the Midwest over snowpack, over the mountains and into the Commonwealth.

Storm tracks will follow a similar path as they dive into the Plains from Canada and head eastward. Our next upper disturbance will plunge south Wednesday into the Plains, then head toward the East coast late Thursday and Friday, producing a quick light snowfall across the region. In Central Virginia, only minor snowfall accumulations are expected, generally from a dusting up to an inch as a result of limited moisture availability.

Few Flakes Possible

A few flurries may be possible in Central Virginia Monday and Tuesday as weak upper disturbances swing over the region in our continued northwest flow. Here is the Noon surface map for our region:

The deep trough remains over the eastern U.S., with cold Canadian air plunging in from the northern Plains all the way into Florida. Here is the upper-air map showing Monday's flow and upper disturbances:

And here are the mid-day wind chills across the country:

Much-below average temperatures will continue all week as another strong cold front sweeps south through the Plains and eastward. Here is the forecast 850mb map for late Wednesday night, where you can make out the southern edge of the cold front moving southward into Texas:

The upper system responsible for this front will also produce light snowfall from the Plains through parts of the Southeast, the Midwest, and also into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Central Virginia will have a chance for light snow late Thursday night into early Friday morning while that storm tracks through the region. It is still too early to nail down snow amounts, but considering how cold the surface and the atmosphere will be, any snow that does fall could accumulate. We will provide updates on the track, intensity, and moisture availability through the week!

A Look Ahead

A few flurries will be possible Tuesday as a disturbance in the upper atmosphere passes the area. We then have a chance for some snow late Thursday into early Friday. There are many factors involved with this next storm, so I decided to break it down into two categories.

Pro snow...

1) Cold air in place - snow ratios will be high.
2) Cold ground will allow for quick accumulations

Against snow...

1) Storm track is looking farther and farther south
2) Limited moisture

Looking at the latest data, it appears like the last two factors will outweigh the first two. So the chances for an accumulating snow are looking less. Regardless, we will continue to watch this storm and keep you updated!