Tropics Update Monday

The area of convection in the Central Atlantic (bright white clouds on the right) we are monitoring continues to show signs of strengthening and better organization. This has a pretty good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days, then earning the name "Alex" if it reaches Tropical Storm strength (39 mph sustained winds). The system is currently tracking West-Northwest at 15 mph about 1400 miles East-Southeast of the Windward Islands. Here is the latest composite tracking for this system:

And the latest intensity forecast:

Weak shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow this system to organize and strengthen over the next 24-48 hours.

There is another wave just coming off of Africa behind it, and we will be watching that one over the coming days as well.

Rain Totals

Newest Data From The Tropics

Looking at the latest computer data, there is still a lot of agreement with the speed and direction of the system in the Atlantic. It should continue to move WNW towards the Windward Islands over the next few days.


On the flip side, computer forecasts are all over the place with the strength of this thing.

Water temperatures are very warm in this region, and wind shear isn't too strong. I think we should see this system strengthen over the next couple days and possibly become Alex.