Hurricane Earl Update 1PM Thurs

These are the latest stats on Earl as of mid-day Thursday. You'll notice that although Earl is still a Cat 4, its maximum sustained winds are down 5 mph from this morning. As I mentioned in my quick Noon update in the previous blog entry, Earl has likely already reached its peak intensity and will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours as it encounters more shear and not-as-warm ocean waters. However, Earl will still be a major hurricane with Cat 3 strength while it tracks east of Virginia Friday morning.

Earl made its north turn this morning around the Atlantic high pressure system, and will make its northeast curve tomorrow as a result of the approaching Midwest trough.

Tropical Storm Fiona appears on track to remain over the open Atlantic waters, potentially affecting Bermuda this weekend. Gaston weakened from a Tropical Storm to a Depression, but will continue to move over very warm Atlantic waters over the next week as it heads westward.

Earl: What's New At Noon

Here's a quick update as I'm on air at Noon:

*Earl has likely reached its peak intensity already as a Cat 4, and winds are down 5 mph from this morning…sustained at 140mph now. Further weakening will continue over the next 24 hours to Cat 3. Rapid weakening late Fri-Sat.
*Earl has turned due north, as expected, which will keep the eye about 50 miles offshore of Hatteras, NC, and about 100 miles east of VA Beach.
*Hurricane Force Winds extend out about 90 miles from the center…that means Hurricane force winds (likely Cat 1) will overspread much of the OBX after midnight.
*Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 230 miles from the center…which means VA Beach and everywhere in the Tropical Storm Warned area in eastern VA will get Tropical Storm Force winds (up to 73mph sustained) Friday.
*Tropical Storm force winds will reach the southern OBX early this eve.
*All data indicates the predicted NE turn in 24 hours, curving along the eastern seaboard with the eye not making landfall until either Cape Cod (there’s a chance the eye may brush it) or northern Maine/Canada border (the likely scenario).
*1”-2” rain will fall in the TS warned area…Chesapeake Bay and east. No rain for Richmond from Earl.
*Expect a breezy Friday in Richmond with the high clouds from Earl overhead.

Look Outside: Earl Approaches

If you look outside right now in central and eastern Virginia, you'll see some thin, high clouds overspreading the Commonwealth. Those are Hurricane Earl's outermost clouds advancing north of the storm!