Icy Spots This Morning, Rain & Storms Wednesday

Light freezing drizzle and mist persisted overnight into early morning in central Virginia while temperatures remain in the 28-32 degree range. This light precipitation is producing a thin glaze of ice on vehicles, elevated objects (like steps or porches), and also on pavement. Some light fog is also occurring early this morning in central Virginia, which is freezing as well. Allow extra time to defrost your vehicle and warm it properly. Keep that heater blasting the front windshield during your commute so that any precipitation that hits your glass will melt instead of freezing and inhibiting your driving visibility.

Temperatures should rise above freezing around 9 a.m., about the same time this light precipitation should be wrapping up in central Virginia. The rest of today will be mostly cloudy, but seasonable in the upper 40s for highs.

A potent low pressure storm system is tracking through the Southern Plains early this Tuesday morning, producing blizzard conditions in Oklahoma. Blizzard warnings extend northeast through eastern Kansas, Missouri, much of Iowa and Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Wisconsin and Michigan (all the areas in red on the map below). The pink areas are Winter Storm Warnings, and the purple are Winter Weather Advisories.

This system should produce more than a foot of snow in some locations, as pointed out in the purple swath in this accumulated snowfall map:

Here's a breakdown of the track of this low pressure system as it moves from the southern plains northeast over the next 48 hours:


As you can see, Virginia will be in the "warm sector" of the storm system, where the low pressure system pulls much warmer, more moist air northward into the Mid-Atlantic from the south. We will get a round of rain and even some thunderstorms starting late Tuesday night through mid-day Wednesday. Here's the expected rainfall accumulations in central Virginia:

Wintry Weather Possible Overnight

A light mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible overnight in central VA. I stopped our model data at 2 PM to show how the precipitation will expand over the area after midnight. Although the model shows rain in the green color, this rain will be falling into sub-freezing temps and will freeze on contact, creating a glaze of ice. The amounts will be light, but it doesn't take much ice to cause big problems, so take it easy out there tonight through early tomorrow. A massive winter storm will cripple much of the nation this week with several feet of snow and strong winds. Temperatures behind this system could stay below zero. We'll be on the warm side of this system Wednesday, with highs near 70 degrees and a chance of thunderstorms.

Update On Wintry Weather This Week

Warm air is going to surge into our area by midweek. The leading edge of this warm air will create a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet (ice pellets). The best chances to see this mix will be from 7 PM Monday until 7 AM Tuesday. In addition, it will generally stay along and west of I-95. I've posted some maps below to give you a timeline of the event. We should be in the clear by 10 AM Tuesday as the precip lifts north and temperatures rise into the mid 30s.






As you can see on the map below, the accumulating snows will stay well north of our area.


Another storm system will pass our area Friday into Saturday. Normally I would be worried about a storm moving in from the south along the coastline, however, right now it loooks like a rain event to me. There are two problems with this storm.

1. The track is too close to the coast
2. Cold air moves in too late (if at all)

I've posted a map of the ECMWF ensemble: a very reliable computer forecast. It has been consistent with this storm for the past couple days and brings rain to our area late Friday evening and into early Saturday. I think this is a plausible solution and will keep a 30% chance for rain on both Friday and Saturday.