Update On Thursday's Snow Potential

As always, I want to start this discussion with a disclaimer. This is just a preview of the upcoming storm and not an official forecast. Things will change from now until Thursday.

The computer forecasts have been surprisingly consistent with the timing of this upcoming storm. In fact, they are now fairly consistent with the track. However, there are still some differences in the intensity. This will have a major impact on our forecast! Check out the maps below from two computer forecasts (ECMWF, GFS)



I will say this - that the second computer (GFS), has been very unreliable this winter. At this point, I leaning towards the first computer because it has been very consistent with this storm. I'm a little skeptical about its forecast accumulations, but I think our chances for snow continues to increase each and every day. For this reason, I've increased our snow chances to 60% on Thursday. Obviously it's too early to start forecasting snow amounts. We will continue to track this storm very carefully and bring you frequent updates in the coming days!

I've posted a couple maps below for the weather geeks like me. These are the 1000-500 mb thickness and mean sea level pressure for 1 PM Thursday. You can see how much more powerful the ECMWF is compared to the GFS (indicated by the tightly packed isobars).

Freezing Rain Tonight For Western Virginia

A batch of light rain and sleet (ice pellets) is currently moving across the area. Temperatures are in the mid and upper 30s, so all sleet is quickly melting on impact. As warmer air continues to move into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, we will see this mix change to all rain for Central Virginia this evening and tonight.

Although this a good news for us, it is bad news for areas farther west into the Blue Ridge, where surface temps will hover near or below 32 degrees. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been issued until 6 AM Saturday morning for Charlottesville, Lynchburg and areas to the west. Use extra caution if you plan on traveling westbound this evening and tonight because there could be some icy spots. Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s by late Saturday morning, and the threat for ice will be gone.

A Look Ahead To Next Week's Storm

The computer data has been very consistent with a storm system approaching our area next Thursday (Feb 10th). However, the data is still inconsistent with the track of the low. Here are three different forecasts at 7 AM Thursday (ECMWF, CMC, GFS). The thick white line is a very crude forecast of the rain/snow line (rain is south of the line, snow is north). You can spot the low, which is indicated by a closed circle. The ECMWF low is right off the North Carolina coast, which would be more conducive to snow, where the CMC is farther north and west, which would bring more rain.







At 7 PM Thursday, all forecasts pull this low up the coast. ECMWF is a little farther out to sea, otherwise, the forecasts are in pretty good agreement. I think this is the first time this winter that the models actually show a similar scenario on a 7 day forecast!







Now, before you go out and buy a sled and snow shovel, you should realize that this track could easily shift farther west. In fact, the pattern does not look conducive for a major East Coast snow storm. The ridge, or Greenland block, is nonexistent. The blue/purple blob on the map below actually shows the opposite - a trough over Greenland.



Over the next couple days, we will probably see small shifts in the timing of this system. However, we could see some large shifts in its track, which would have a major impact on our forecast. This is something we will continue to watch. You can expect more updates in the coming days!