Drought Conditions Worsen in Virginia

As we continue to fall behind for our year-to-date precipitation this month, drought conditions are expanding eastward in central Virginia. Now everywhere along I-95 is included in Moderate Drought, the first level of drought. 65% of the Commonwealth is now officially considered to be in a drought, up from 57% percent at the report a week ago.



Here is how Richmond compares for our year-to-date precipitation with the normal and last year:


Also, the eastern Peninsulas are now considered to be "Abnormally Dry" after another week without any significant precipitation. This does not bode well for the continued high fire danger expected through Saturday in the state. A dry cold front will pass through the Commonwealth overnight Friday into early Saturday, generating gusty winds around 35 mph (both Friday and Saturday afternoons) and reinforcing the dry air mass. The worst day for fire danger should be Saturday, when very low relative humidity will combine with strong west-northwesterly winds. These are the three critical fire danger factors that are a result of the weather, and that we pay close attention to during a day that meets these three criteria:

Three-Day Warm-Up Starts Wednesday

We began the work week with highs in the low 70s, but a dip in the jetstream and an associated low pressure system, allowed a strong cold front to cool us down on Tuesday. The graphic below indicates the upper-level features Tuesday evening, with troughs in the eastern and western U.S., and a flat ridge across the Plains states.

A broad ridge will build into the southern and southeastern U.S. by the end of the week, allowing much warmer air to move back into the Mid-Atlantic. The graphic below indicates how the upper features will look on Friday. Highs will reach the mid-70s in central Virginia on Friday under this ridge. Enjoy!

High Fire Danger Monday

A low pressure system tracking through the northern Great Lakes along the Canadian border will bring a dry cold front through the Commonwealth later this afternoon and early evening. As this front approaches, winds will pick up from the west and be quite gusty. We will also be unseasonably warm today with highs in the 60s, and with dry air in the region, this will create low relative humidity values this afternoon in the 20%-30% range. All of these factors combined will result in high fire danger today, especially between Noon and 5 p.m. Therefore, there is a Red Flag Warning in effect today for nearly all of central Virginia.

The highest gusts should occur in the Piedmont and higher terrain of western Virginia, especially along ridge-tops. If you're driving in a high-profile vehicle today, particularly along I-81, be prepared to battle some tough cross-winds!
Part of the reason why we have this high fire danger is because we're running below-normal for year-to-date precipitation:





The last times we had good soaking rains were on January 26th and on December 12th. It's no wonder we're a little dry! Here's the latest drought monitor for Virginia, which shows 57% of the state is in Moderate Drought:





Notice how the eastern Peninsulas of Virginia are doing okay for precipitation? That's partly why they are excluded from the Red Flag Warning today. No rain chances are on the horizon until next week, when our pattern should shift to a more active one conducive for storm systems and moisture to make it into the Commonwealth. Let's hope we pick up some much-needed rainfall next week!