Tuesday Morning Update on Irene

Here's the Tuesday morning visible satellite image of Category Two Hurricane Irene with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, as viewed from space:

Hurricane Irene did not strengthen overnight, but is becoming better organized as it moves away from the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Irene's track through the Bahamas looks likely based on good consistency between forecast models.

Sea surface temperatures are very warm and highly favorable for intensification of Irene as it passes into and over the Bahamas. By Wednesday, Irene should have strengthened into a "major" hurricane at Category Three strength of winds at least 111 mph or stronger. While continuing to pass over these warm waters east of Florida, this intensity should be maintained.

An upper-level wave from the U.S. should encourage Irene to take a more northerly shift late Saturday into early Sunday, aiming Irene for the southern North Carolina coast:

It is crucial as we look into this weekend to not pay as close attention to the little red hurricane icon on the map, but rather to the white highlighted area of potential impact in our region:

Speaking of the "area of impact," here are some of the possible weather impacts we may experience in central Virginia:

Here is the model spread for our region of the Mid-Atlantic Coast (the lines represent the various forecast centers of the storm's track):

Irene should continue as an extremely strong cyclone as it transitions to an extra-tropical system in New England Sunday-Monday next week:

Stay with CBS6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose

Update on Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Irene is now a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 95 mph, and a minimum central pressure of 981 mb. The image above shows the spaghetti plot for all tropical models handling the track of Irene this evening. There is now almost full consensus that Florida will be spared, with a landfall near the SC/NC border more of a likelihood. Extrapolation of the curved path will take the storm across eastern and parts of central VA. If the trough moving through the eastern U.S. is fast and strong enough, there is a chance Irene could only graze the OBX, and miss VA. As for now, prepare for some adverse weather in central and eastern VA this weekend. ZD

Irene strengthens into a Hurricane Monday morning

As of 5AM Eastern Time Monday, Irene strengthened just north of Puerto Rico to a Category One hurricane, our first hurricane of the 2011 season.

Hurricane Irene is aiming for the Bahamas mid-week, then should hug along the east coast of Florida Friday:

Into this weekend (Saturday and Sunday), the outer edges of Irene should begin spreading northward into Virginia, bringing us rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially some severe weather. Forecast tracks a week from now indicate with good consistency that Irene's remnants will pass over Virginia:

We can expect heavy rainfall, which can lead to flooding (particularly in lower-lying parts of Virginia), potentially brief, weak tornadoes, and strong wind gusts (depending on how much Irene weakens as it moves farther inland through the Carolinas) that can knock out power.

You can keep up with the latest updates on Hurricane Irene using our CBS 6 Hurricane Tracker Tool by clicking here.

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this upcoming weekend, I strongly advise you to make solid indoor backup plans now. In addition, we should all prepare for potential power outages and flooding this weekend. Here are some items you should have ready:

As a reminder, we are now in the thick of what is climatologically our most active time of the hurricane season. Heightened tropical activity will likely continue through October:

Stay with CBS 6, we'll keep you ahead of the storm.
--Meteorologist Carrie Rose