Weather Update 5:35 PM

A batch of light rain is currently moving across central Virginia. This round of showers should exit in the next hour or two then spotty drizzle and mist will linger into tonight.

New Year's Eve Forecast Update

A few scattered light rain showers will be possible this evening and overnight in Central Virginia, but the widespread rain from earlier today has exited to the east. All Winter Weather Advisories are also expired now. Patchy fog and mist will continue this afternoon with high temperatures in the upper-30's and low-40's.

Much colder weather is expected to blast into the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. Winds will be in the 20-30 mph range Saturday and Sunday from the Northwest, advecting in much colder air for the first days of 2010.
Here's a recap of some of the winter weather reports this morning in Virginia:
Ice:
Charlottesville 0.20"
Reston 0.10"
near Dulles International 0.10"
Warrenton 0.10"
Standardsville 0.05"
Herndon 0.03"
Massaponax 0.02"
Rixeyville 0.01"

Snowfall:
Covington 3.2"
Craigsville 2.6"
Blacksburg 2.3"
Winchester 2.1"
Staunton 1.3"
Galax 1.0"
Luray 1.0"
Linden 1.0"
Sperryville 0.2"

Rain Tapering Off

Rain continues to taper off this morning in Central Virginia after a mix of freezing rain and light snow fell overnight in parts of the area, and temperatures are now rising above freezing. Most precipitation was light, and led to only minor ice accumulations. The Winter Weather Advisories have been lifted for southwestern parts of the area, but remain in effect for these counties:

A few scattered light rain showers will be possible through the day today, but rain chances will remain low. Overnight, a few showers may occur pre-Dawn.

Slick Conditions Possible This Morning

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the counties highlighted in purple until 1 p.m. Thursday. The outlined area is where a light winter mix of precipitation is falling and will continue to fall this morning. As of 7 a.m., a mix of freezing rain and light snow is affecting these counties. However, even spots as far southeast as Richmond have had freezing rain this morning. This will lead to slick spots while temperatures remain at or below freezing at the surface.

New Year's Eve Forecast

A low pressure storm system currently moving out of the Plains will bring an opportunity for rain showers to Central Virginia starting after Midnight tonight, through Thursday, and into early New Year's Day. Over the past 24 hours (through 8:30 a.m. Wednesday), you can see the progress of the storm from the Southern Plains heading into the Midwest:

Snowfall in the Plains and Midwest has been relatively minor, only a couple inches being reported in the region. Across the Southeast, up to an inch of rainfall accumulation will be possible. Once the system reaches the Commonwealth, it appears that precipitation will fall in the form of rain, but with temperatures expected to be at or below freezing for the western half of the state there will be a period of freezing rain Thursday morning that may lead to slick spots. Rain totals should be low in our area, generally less than a quarter inch. For New Year's Eve around Midnight, rain chances will be very low, with temperatures in the 30's.

We are still on track for an extended period of much colder weather the first week of 2010 as persistent Northwest flow keeps Canadian air flowing into the Mid-Atlantic.

Windy Start To 2010

After our next storm system moves through New Year's Eve and Day, the low will park itself over coastal New England for the first few days of 2010 with a tight pressure gradient from New England to the Mid-Atlantic.

This will mean a couple blustery days on January 2nd and 3rd, with afternoon wind chills in the low-20's and teens as air temperatures rise only into the mid-30's. Colder air will be advected from Canada across the Great Lakes, over the mountains into Virginia. It looks like our below-average temperatures that started Monday will last through much of next week as well!

Record Wet December

After the holiday rain, our December 2009 precipitation tally rose to the top spot, becoming the wettest December on record at Richmond International Airport. This is on the heels of our wettest November in the books, thus making this the wettest end to a year ever for Richmond. We may add to this total on New Year's Eve as an approaching storm system currently moving into the Southern Plains brings rain into Central Virginia Thursday. The first day of 2010 might be a white one, with snow showers possible on the backside of the exiting low. However, because that system will be moving quickly to the northeast away from us, snow accumulations, if any, are expected to be minor in the area.
Here is a movie of the anticipated precipitation associated with this storm system:

Breezy Behind Front

The cold front cleared our state by lunchtime today, with west and northwest winds behind the front. Gusts are in the 20-30mph range, and breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon. Temperatures are also beginning to fall from west to east as cooler, drier air moves into the state behind the front. With clear skies overnight, lows will be in the 20's in Central Virginia.

Cold Front Today

A cold front is moving into the state early Monday morning, and will bring cooler temperatures today and linger much of this week. Sunday's high temperature was 53 degrees in Richmond, but today's high will be around 44 degrees as a result of the cooler air moving in behind the front. Here are the surface readings before 6 a.m., and you can see where the front is in north-central and western Virginia with the winds shifting to the West-Northwest:
Winds are gusty behind the front, and I expect those gusts to filter into Central Virginia this afternoon, with sustained winds in the 10-20mph range. The ** symbol indicates snow showers on the western slopes of the mountains, but this front will be dry as it passes through the rest of the state today. Our next chance of precipitation will be New Year's Eve, and will likely fall in the form of rain only. There is the potential for a brief period of a winter mix early Thursday morning before changing over to all rain, but there is also a slight chance for wintry weather on New Year's Day as colder air moves in from the Northwest. If any precipitation falls Friday, a winter mix early morning may change over to light snow. If the track of either of these systems shifts, though, this will greatly influence the precipitation type, if any, we receive. We'll be providing updates through the week!

Enjoy Today!

It looks like we are headed towards a cool weather pattern for the next several days. High temperatures will remain five to ten degrees below the normal of 47. There are some indications that the pattern will break down somewhere between January 7-10 and mild air will return.

We are also keeping a close eye on the next storm system headed this way for New Year's Eve. A wintry mix will be possible Wednesday night and into early Thursday. Then another system could quickly follow this storm and bring some snow Friday or Saturday. This is still a long way out and A LOT will change between now and then. We will continue to monitor the situation and bring you the very latest in the coming days!

Showers Taper Tonight, Fog Lingers

We have a lot of moisture on the ground from melting snow and today's rainfall. Consequently, patches of dense fog have developed, especially north of I-64, where there is thicker snowpack. Fog and mist will continue into early tomorrow morning.

Massive Snowman

I figured I would share one last snow photo sent to us from the Hancock Family. Merry Christmas everyone!

Rain Tapers Tonight

Although a stray shower will be possible very early tomorrow morning, it looks like most of this weekend will be dry.

Freezing Rain Potential

Freezing Rain Advisories are still in effect tonight and into early tomorrow. This includes most of northern and western Virginia, where temperatures will stay below freezing as rain overspreads the area. It is strongly encouraged to postpone any travel into these areas until temperatures rise above freezing.


Here is a look at the regional forecast for tomorrow. The shades of pink indicate the freezing rain. You can see that most of it tapers in the afternoon.

Winter Storm Watch Issued

A large and slow-moving storm system will spread rain into the area late Thursday night, with rain continuing into Christmas Day. Shallow surface cold air across western Virginia, especially in the valleys, will allow the rain to freeze on contact. An accumulation of up to one-quarter of an inch of ice will be possible in the watch area. While there could be a brief period of freezing rain in counties farther east, the period of time of below normal temperatures coinciding with rainfall appears very short.

Long Range Forecast: Cold

After looking at the latest long range data, it looks like temperatures will remain generally cooler than normal for the rest of December and into early January.

Big Snow Storm For The Midwest

A massive storm system will bring heavy snow to several states across the Midwest. Some areas could easily exceed a foot of snow! Here is the forecast through Friday morning:

December Rainfall Update

As a result of this weekend's snowstorm, Richmond International Airport's liquid precipitation tally rose into the top three wettest Decembers on record. With Friday's approaching storm, it is feasible we could jump into the top two spots for rainfall. This could mean we have two months in a row for record rainfall. We just had the wettest November on record, and we may end up with the wettest December on record before the month ends.

Officially at RIC, 6.0" of snow fell on the 18th, which melted into 0.5" of liquid equivalent, with a snow to rain ratio of 12:1. It was definitely a fluffy snow! Saturday the 19th's 1.4" of sleet and snow had 0.47" of liquid equivalent, with a snow to rain ratio of 3:1. This is such a low ratio because of the sleet that fell for an extended period of time Saturday morning. At CBS 6, we measured about an inch of sleet on top of the fluffy snow that fell Friday night. Once we transitioned back over to all snow later Saturday morning, an additional few inches of snow fell in the Metro.

Christmas Storm System

As Aaron mentioned on Sunday, a storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest today, cross over the Rockies, and strengthen in the Plains by mid-week. This storm will track to our north by Christmas Day, bringing a good chance for rain in the Commonwealth. However, there is a window of opportunity pre-dawn Friday for there to be a winter mix mainly west of I-95 before warmer air surges northward at all levels above the ground. Chances for this will be better the farther west you go into the Piedmont and the mountains. Everywhere temperatures will rise well above freezing Christmas morning, ending any winter precipitation threat in the area. So it's looking like this will be a Wet Christmas, not necessarily a White one.

If you have travel plans mid-week to the west, here's where the storm will be Christmas Eve Morning:

That may cause air traffic delays Christmas Eve from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast.


And by Christmas Morning:

Next Storm Will Be Different

We are carefully tracking a storm that is currently moving across the Gulf Of Alaska. This storm system is headed our way for Christmas. The chatroom is already buzzing about it...believe it or not, people are wanting more snow!


I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this system will take a northerly track and will bring warmer weather and rain for Christmas Day. In fact, it could potentially melt most of the snow that is currently on the ground!

Snowfall Total Map

Here are some maps of snow totals across the region. You can find an interactive version of these maps by clicking here.

(Click to enlarge)

Updated Snowfall Totals

(Photo: Gordonsville, VA by CBS 6 viewer)
More snowfall reports have been coming into us at WTVR this Sunday morning, so here's the updated list:

Wintergreen 30"
Waynesboro 28"
Linden 26.8"
Fishersville 26"
Gordonsville 26"
Earlysville 23"
Crozet 23"
Staunton 22"
Opal 21.8"
Louisa 21.5"
Charlottesville 21"
Whitacre 19"
Locust Grove 18"
Woodford 18"
Winchester 18"
Manassas 18"
Dulles International Airport 18"
Roanoke 18"
Ruther Glen 18"
Luray 17"
Washington, D.C. Mall 16"
Barboursville 15.6"
Short Pump 14"
Ashland 14"
Columbia 14"
Near West End 14"
Beaverdam 13"
Newland 12.5"
Lynchburg 12.5"
Coatesville 12"
Powhatan 11"
Glen Allen 10"
Chesterfield 9"
The Fan 9"
Danville 8"
Chester 5.8"
Reedville 3"
Petersburg 2"

Keep sending in those updated snowfall totals for us, so we get the latest tallies!

(Photo: Rhoadesville, VA by Brian Baker)

(Photo: Henrico, West End by Michael Gibrall. Weight of snow bends metal pole and shatters glass patio table)

Drum Roll Please...

And the highest snow totals in Virginia are...

Wintergeen...30"
Waynesboro...28"
Staunton...22"

Woodford, VA

Thanks Tiffany for sharing this photo!

A Storm To Remember, But...

This Nor'easter dumped lots of snow across the area and will be remembered for years to come. However, we *only* received officially 7" at RIC, so we did not crack the top fifteen snowstorms in Richmond history. Here is the list below:

1) Jan 23-24, 1940...21.6"

2) Jan 27-29, 1922...19.1"

3) Feb 10-11, 1983...17.7"

4) Dec 22-23, 1908...17.2"

5) Feb 11-14, 1899...16.3"

6) Mar 5-7, 1962...15.2"

7) Jan 4-5, 1980...14.9"

8) Jan 25-27, 1966...14.8"

9) Mar 1-2, 1980...13.0"

10) Feb 6-7, 1936...12.6"

11) Jan 25, 2000...11.0"

12) Feb 18-19, 1979...10.9"

13) Mar 3-6, 1912...10.6"

14) Dec 12-14, 1917...10.4"

15) Jan 31-Feb 1, 1948...10.1"

Snow Slowly Tapering - 7:55 PM

A few flurries and isolated snow bursts still linger in the area. A dusting to an inch will be possible, especially east of I-95. I'm going for a low of 22, but when you factor in winds at 5 to 15 mph, it will feel like the teens. Tomorrow will be a cold and breezy day with winds 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Although we will see some peeks of sunshine, we will not warm up considering all the snow on the ground. In fact, communities to the northwest (with almost two feet of snowpack) will struggle to get to the upper 20s for highs!

-Aaron-

Weather Update - 4:15 PM

The backside of this storm system is about to move past our area. A few snow bands have already developed in the Blue Ridge and are moving to the east towards central Virginia. Isolated bursts of snow will be possible through at least 8 PM, then we will dry out tonight. An additional dusting to 2" of snow will still be possible for metro Richmond/Petersburg and areas farther south. If you live in north central Virginia, snow will be likely for the next few hours and could be heavy at times - an additional 2 to 4" will be possible.

Snow Depth Report

A lot of the snow was packed down by rain and sleet earlier this morning - keep this is mind when looking at these numbers. As of 3:30 PM, here are the actual measurements of what is currently on the ground.

STAUNTON 22"
CHARLOTTESVILLE 20"
BARBOURSVILLE 15.6"
BEAVERDAM 13"
LYNCHBURG 12.5"
LOUISA 12.3"
COATESVILLE 12"
POWHATAN 11"
MANAKIN-SABOT 11"
RUTHER GLEN 10.5"
WARSAW 10"
SHORT PUMP 9.8"
RICHMOND 8"
MIDLOTHIAN 7"
CHESTERFIELD 6"
NEW KENT 5.5"
CHESTER 5"
PETERSBURG 4"
VICTORIA 4"

Updated Potential Snow Totals

Based on overnight precipitation, plus anticipated additional snowfall during the day Saturday, I have upped our expected snowfall totals for the northwest half of Virginia. The southeast remains unchanged because it has rained overnight, and snow will not occur there until late morning.

Here is a movie of the Nor'easter's expected track:

The snow in Richmond Friday night broke the record for that date:

Updated Warning Map

A Blizzard Warning has been issued for parts of Maryland, and I expect strong gusty winds in Central Virginia as well, especially Saturday while the low intensifies and tracks along our coastline. Winds will gust to 35-40 mph at times in Central Virginia, which will reduce visibilities in blowing snow.

Innsbrook At 8:30 PM

Thanks to Whitney for the photo!

Snow In Shortpump

Updated Winter Storm Warning Map

Here is the updated Winter Storm Warning map, which has expanded a little farther southeast:

Winter Storm Watches/Warnings Issued

Winter storm watches and warnings have been issued for all except for far SE VA for Friday night through Saturday night. This will be a significant snow storm for much of the state, with a large area likely receiving over a foot of snow. I'll update the snowfall accumulation forecast a little later.

Winter Solstice Monday

The Winter Solstice is Monday, December 21 at 12:47 p.m. EST. This date is regarded as the "start" of Winter for the Northern Hemisphere, and is also the shortest day of the year (i.e., with the fewest hours of sunlight). The Earth's axis is always tilted at 23.44 degrees with respect to the orbital plane, which means that different latitudes will most-directly receive the Sun's incident rays at different times of the year on the Earth's orbit.

From an observer's perspective on Earth, it appears that we seem to "shift" either toward or away from the most direct rays during the year. In actuality, we aren't tilting back and forth from the Sun's perspective, but from ours on Earth, that's what it looks like.

(Image: Windows to the Universe, UCAR)

By the Winter Solstice, the Sun's incident rays are so low on our southern horizon that much of their intensity is diffused as it travels through a longer layer of atmosphere to reach the ground in the Northern Hemisphere. The good news: our days will begin lengthening again. The "bad" news: the temperature lag on Earth means that we are just entering our climatologically coldest months. Hence, why we call this the "start" of Winter!

Getting Ready For Winter Weather

Winter Storm Watches are already going up to our southwest and into the western half of North Carolina for a strong storm system that will approach along the East Coast Friday through the weekend.
It does appear that much of Central Virginia will also receive snowfall this weekend, with the highest totals likely along and west of a line from Lynchburg to Charlottesville to north of Fredericksburg.

The storm system has been organizing south of Texas in the Gulf of Mexico over the past 12 hours:

We will be providing updates on the snowfall potential in Central Virginia as the storm approaches.

How Much Snow? Not This Much...

Above is the latest snowfall accumulation map for the upcoming weekend, indicating a range of 21-25+ inches of snow across a broad area, include the metro. Here's where you have to be very careful when using models for forecasting. While I think we will see some snow this weekend, the amounts depicted above are off the charts, and don't consider some of the most important parameters. For instance, ground temperatures are still warm and near-surface temperatures look like they will be a little above freezing for part of the event. There's also a signal that some of the precipitation will fall as rain. My feeling is that we will see snow in the metro, but how much of it accumulates is still very much in question. I do feel that some part of central Virginia could get as much as a foot of snow. I'll address the system again and have more specifics on snowfall totals on Thursday. Till then snow lovers, pray for snow!

2009 Wetter Than Average

After a sluggish start to the year, it seemed Richmond and much of Central Virginia transitioned to a pattern of healthy doses of rainfall regularly. By December, I've often heard people bemoaning yet another rainy day. It's true, this year ended up a wet one! As mentioned a couple Blog entries ago, we now have the 6th wettest December on record for Richmond International Airport, and we may add to this before 2009 is in the books, seeing as we are only half-way through the month. We have also already surpassed the average annual rainfall for RIC, which is 43.70" per year (based on 1949-2006 records). As of December 15th, RIC has recorded 46.09" of precipitation, so even if we don't see another drop of rain (or snow) the rest of the month, we will close 2009 with above-average precipitation.

Someone asked me this morning if we've been wetter than Seattle, WA this year. Actually, despite Seattle's stigma for being the "Rain City," Seattle's average annual rainfall is well below Richmond's, and most cities on the East Coast! Seattle's average precipitation in a year is about 38.17" (based on 1949-2006 records). We, on average, have Seattle beat by 5.53" in a year. It should be mentioned, though, that Seattle tends to have days upon days of mist or steady light rain, which accounts for the wet stigma. Seattle has 138 Rain Days per year, whereas Richmond has 113. In 2009, Richmond has had 120 Rain Days so far. That's a week more of rainy days than average.

For additional 2009 perspective, here are some selected locations' 2009-to-date precipitation as of December 15:

Seattle, WA 33.85"

Boston, MA 42.76" (+2.27" from average)

Houston, TX 45.15" (-0.70" from average)

Richmond, VA 46.09" (+3.91" from average)

Orlando, FL 50.32" (+3.21" from average)

Tuscaloosa, AL 60.27" (+5.79" from average)

Birmingham, AL 68.65" (+17.14" from average...wow!)

So perhaps it's more appropriate to say that we've been wetter than Houston this year, or almost as wet as Florida (another stigma..."The Sunshine State" is wetter than Seattle, WA and Orlando has 118 Rain Days per year, more than Richmond).

Strong Cold Front Coming

A strong cold front that brought bitterly cold temperatures to the Midwest and much of the Plains Monday is headed our way today. Check out the current (6 a.m. ET) temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S.:

This cold front is causing about a 20 to 30-degree drop in the midsection of the country, and will sweep through Central Virginia late Tuesday afternoon, putting an end to our relatively mild temperatures expected this afternoon (around 60 degrees!). Highs the rest of this week will remain in the mid-40's, which is slightly below-average for mid-December.

Dense Fog Advisory Extended

Because of lingering dense fog, the advisory has been extended for Central and Eastern Virginia, where visibilities remain at or below a quarter-mile.

6th Wettest December For RIC

After Sunday's heavy rainfall, Richmond International Airport is inching up the charts among the wettest Decembers on record, and we're only halfway through the month! For the year-to-date precipitation, RIC is at 46.09", which is 4.01" above average by this date.

Widespread Dense Fog

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 a.m. for nearly the entire state, but visibilities are most-reduced in Central and Eastern Virginia to or below a quarter-mile. Temperatures are above freezing in this area, so this morning's fog is not a freezing fog event. However, well west of I-95 where the fog is not as dense or widespread, temperatures have been able to dip to or below freezing this morning. Any puddles left after Sunday's heavy rainfall may cause black ice.

Patchy Dense Fog Tonight

Patches of dense fog have already developed across the area this evening. Fog will persist through the night and into early tomorrow morning and reduce visibilities below a quarter mile. Use extra caution if you are out on the roads over the next 12 hours! Most of the fog will lift by mid morning tomorrow.

Any Snow Before Christmas?

Probably the most popular question during this time of the year is "Will we see a white Christmas?". I can understand people's excitement over getting snow in the area, however, this is an almost impossible question to answer. Computer data becomes extremely unreliable beyond seven days. Usually we can spot general trends 2 to 3 weeks away, such as temperatures being cooler or warmer than normal. But anyone who tries to pinpoint a storm that far away will only become frustrated!

With all that said, take the following paragraph with a large grain of salt...

The raw computer data has two coastal storms developing over the next couple weeks. The first one is around December 19-20 and the other is around December 24-26. These are our last chances at a white Christmas. I'll be perfectly honest, given the current weather pattern, those chances look pretty slim. Regardless, all you snow lovers out there - keep your fingers crossed!

Rain Totals

On average, metro Richmond and surrounding areas received 1 to 2" of rainfall. Totals were less farther south (roughly .5") near Petersburg and Emporia.

A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River at Mattoax until Monday night. The river level should drop below flood stage during that time.

Morning Weather Update

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the western third of the state where temperatures are hovering at or below freezing. At 6 AM, there were reports of freezing rain (rain that freezes once it hits the ground) in Charlottesville and Lynchburg. Temperatures will eventually rise above freezing around 10 AM and the advisory will be lifted.

A wintry mix of rain and sleet (ice pellets) was reported in Tappahannock, Orange and Louisa. Although a few ice pellets will still be possible along and north of I-64, it shouldn't be a major concern because temperatures will remain above freezing.

Wintry Mix Reported In Danville

A small batch of rain and sleet just moved through the Danville area. This is moving to the ENE and will clip Richmond/Petersburg in the next hour or two. Luckily temperatures are holding steady and even starting to rise, so there shouldn't be any major problems on the roads. Regardless, if you are out driving late tonight, be extra alert because there still could be isolated slick spots.

Wintry Mix Possible Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect tonight and early tomorrow morning for most of western Virginia. Temperatures should drop below freezing tonight in the areas shaded in purple. A mix of sleet and freezing rain could cause some slick spots in these locations. This will quickly change over to all rain by mid morning on Sunday as warmer air moves into the region.


Central and eastern Virginia will miss out on most of the wintry weather, though some ice pellets could mix in with the rain tonight and early tomorrow morning. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing during the entire event, so this shouldn't cause major troubles on the roads. We will continue to monitor the situation and have more updates later this evening.

Cold Tonight!

We're expecting temperatures to dip into the mid 20s tonight. When you factor in a wind of 5 to 15 mph, it will feel like 15 to 20 degrees. Be sure to dress in layers tomorrow morning!